As the California delegation becomes certified it is becoming clear that the actual delegate haul is 203-167 (Clinton winning) a difference of 36 instead of 44 as reported in the press on election night. Essentially it comes down to the details of the Congressional District and the actual voter count statewide that has fallen to Clinton winning at 8.7% instead of 10%. This and the realization that it appears that Obama will emerge out of Texas with a 99-94 delegate win will give him 9 more pledged delegate than originally reported.
The Wall Street Journal reports in their Obama California Comeback post:"A little-noticed shift in the tally of California’s Democratic delegates may affect the primary between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton as much as the heavily hyped results last Tuesday in Ohio, Texas, Vermont and Rhode Island....
...A California politics blogger has argued that Sen. Clinton won 36 more pledged delegates in the state than Sen. Obama, rather than the 44-delegate margin that has long been included in the news organizations’ tallies. A spokesman for the state party confirms the blogger’s numbers...
...The shift, if validated once the state certifies its election results this week and the party chooses its delegates, is a reminder that the commonly reported delegate totals are mere estimates, subject to change as states finalize election results. It also highlights how a blogger with intense focus on the numbers may be faster than the established delegate counters. It’s hard to explain the difference because most news organizations don’t provide a breakdown of projected delegates, district by district. Some of the discrepancies may arise from the peculiar math of congressional districts. For instance, instance in the 16th District received 50,056 votes; she needed about 58 more votes to get three of the district’s four delegates, but instead she split them evenly with Sen. Obama. In the 53rd district, which has five delegates, Sen. Clinton received a small plurality of the early returns, but has fallen behind which swings that fifth delegate to Sen. Obama...
...The statewide vote matters, too. On primary night, it appeared Sen. Clinton won the state by 10 percentage points. Now she’s up by 8.7%. That means she gets an 11-margin win among delegates apportioned on the basis of the statewide vote, rather than a 13-margin win."
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