Obama eroding Clinton's other base, GLBT's

Bloomberg.com's publication titled: Gay Clinton Backers Defect to Obama, Eroding Her Base (Update2) is stating that gays are drifting to Obama's camp after the staunch support in New Hampshire, Nevada, New York and California.

Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Hillary Clinton cemented years of goodwill with gays in 2000, when she walked in New York's Pride Parade....Now some gay voters, who have been among Clinton's most stalwart supporters and helped her defeat Barack Obama in Democratic presidential primaries earlier this month, may be drifting toward the Illinois senator, according to political activists and campaign officials.

``Clinton probably is still a little bit ahead of Obama among leadership in the community,'' said Steve Elmendorf, a Clinton supporter and lobbyist with ties to the gay and lesbian communities. ...``Obama has presented more detailed position papers on gay and lesbian issues than Clinton,'' said David Mixner, 61, a writer and activist who helped longtime friend Bill Clinton win over the gay and lesbian vote during the 1992 presidential race and who supported both of Hillary Clinton's successful Senate races in New York. This time, Mixner is backing Obama. The Clintons have become ``a machine, and Obama's the young reformer,'' said Mixner...

Musician Melissa Etheridge, who came out as a lesbian in 1993 at President Bill Clinton's Triangle Ball... said earlier this month that she is backing Obama...Hollywood mogul David Geffen, a one-time supporter of Bill Clinton, also is backing Obama....held a $1.3 million fundraiser for Obama last year.

While exit-poll data on gay and lesbian voters aren't available in many of the states Obama has won, he scored victories in gay neighborhoods in Washington, D.C. and Madison, Wisconsin. He also won San Francisco County and edged out Clinton in Hillcrest, the gay hub of San Diego.

BREAKING NEWS: Senator Rockefeller endorses Obama

Obama picked up his 33rd super-delegate since February 5th's Super Tuesday when West Virginia's junior Senator (D) Jay Rockefeller publicly endorsed Barack Obama, (MSNBC has the count 255 to 201 for Clinton as of 02/27, that did include Dodd, ND's Pfenning and now WV's Rockefeller). The Hill.com reported:

Rockefeller, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Obama's position on the Iraq war in 2002 was partially behind his decision to support the Illinois senator.

“The indisputable fact is Barack Obama was right about Iraq when many of us were wrong," Rockefeller said in a statement. "It was a tough call and the single greatest national security question, and mistake, of our time."

Rockefeller's endorsement comes just after the Clinton campaign released one of the most powerful ads of the cycle. Entitled "Children," the Clinton ad tells viewers their children are safe and asleep at 3 a.m. when a phone rings in the White House.

"Something’s happening in the world," the ad says. "Your vote will decide who answers that call.”

The ad touched off a furious debate between the two camps that included numerous conference calls with reporters throughout the day. Both campaigns argued strenuously that their candidate is better suited to handle international incidents.

Why or Why Did the Clinton Campaign Go Wrong

Today, the Huffington Post has a must read titled Microtrends versus Megatrends: Why Obama is winning where the fine progressive political commentator Arianna Huffington discusses in detail how the basic political worldviews of the respective campaign strategists (and candidates) emerged as a winning and losing campaign.

This is on top of NY Times Frank Rich's op-ed piece last Monday he titled The Audacity of Hopelessness. Frank Rich deftly compares her campaign management and message narrative to the disaster we know as the Iraq War, in short 'they' believing her own press spin of inevitability and that 'they' designed the primary season to be determined on "Super Tuesday" where neither was true and had no contingency plans as a result.

Both are good reads but again they are missing the critical secret ingredient in the recipe called the Obama Movement. Being a foot on the ground I know something these pundits cannot feel or see, Obama has sparked the waiting firestorm of waiting electorate to rise up in a bloodless revolution and take back their government. The megatrend that Huffington eludes to or the hubris that Rich identifies from being part of the permanent privileged class that her campaign and self came from the reason Obama is winning so big and broad is not because of political tactics or message management but because Obama is riding this revolutionary movement. This is why the major polls are not consistent nor can be relied upon in that they are using data sets and samples that are not capturing Obama's new coalition of support, previously disenfranchised voters, non voters, new voters or voters from outside the Democratic Party.

This is the start of a new age in our nation's history beyond the symbol of a mixed racial young man being elected president. This new age will eventually be coined a name but will have the profound effect that came when FDR ushered in the New Deal, or Lincoln brought about emancipation, or JFK finished it with equal rights or when Andrew Jackson tore down the banking system that was breaking the then western frontier.

BREAKING NEWS: Possible Legal ACTION IN TEXAS

It appears that as the voter's intent and will are going against Clinton's campaign in Texas, the Clinton's appear to be threatening more tactical political moves to challenge the voter's will of a state that Bill Clinton declared that had to be delivered to Hillary for her to win the nomination.

The AP is reporting that:

Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign has raised the possibility of a challenge to Texas' primary and caucus rules just days before the contest, drawing a warning against legal action from the state's Democratic Party.

Top strategists for Democratic rival Barack Obama said Friday they supported the party's action, suggesting the Clinton campaign was trying to block the reporting of caucus results.

Clinton aides said earlier this week they were alarmed at the lack of clarity about many of the caucus rules and expressed their concerns on a conference call with Obama's staff and state party officials. Texas has a two-step voting process, with a primary and then caucuses shortly after the polls close.

Specifically, Clinton aides questioned a provision allowing caucus attendees to vote to move the location if they choose to do so, and whether people who had cast so-called "provisional ballots" in the primary would have their votes counted in the caucus.
They also expressed concern about the automated phone system precinct chairs would use to call in the results of each caucus, saying the party hadn't yet trained anyone to use the system properly.

"We want to see the results in writing, and we reserve the right to challenge something if we don't believe it reflects something that was discussed on the call," he said, insisting that if there were clear problems with how the caucuses were being run, "you are allowed to say something about it."

Cecil on Friday denied that the campaign planned to sue the party, which will manage roughly 8,700 caucuses Tuesday evening. "There were no veiled threats of lawsuits of any kind," Cecil said of the conference call.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said the Clinton campaign was trying to minimize the results of the caucuses. The former first lady and her team have made clear their unhappiness with caucuses, believing that they cater to the hard-core party activists who tend to support Obama. The Illinois senator has won 13 caucuses so far, while Clinton has won just two."This takes it to a new level, which is they don't want the people who are participating in those caucuses to have their results reported in a timely fashion. And I assume that's a very self-serving decision," Plouffe said.

Texas party officials said they believed Cecil was threatening legal action and wrote a letter to him and to Obama senior strategist Steve Hildebrand reflecting that concern.
"If it is true that litigation is imminent between one or both of your campaigns and the Texas Democratic Party, such action could prove to be a tragedy for a reinvigorated democratic process that is involving a record number of participants here in Texas and across the nation," party attorney Chad Dunn wrote. "Litigation regarding the TDP could cripple the momentum of a resurging Texas Democratic Party and ultimately the November 2008 election."

The letter also noted that many of Clinton's senior campaign advisers in Texas had helped to develop the rules governing the state's caucus system. A Texas party official also noted that former President Clinton won the state's caucuses in 1992 and 1996 following the same rules.Texas has 193 delegates up for grabs Tuesday. Of those delegates, 126 will come from the primary, and 67 from the caucus.

Latest Polling showing more gains for Obama

Recently released polling data by the The Houston Chronicle is stating that in Texas Obama has opened a 48 to 42 percent lead.

Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama appears to be
consolidating a lead over Hillary Rodham Clinton among most constituent groups in Texas except Hispanics, according to a new tracking poll.The survey found Obama leading 48.2 percent to 41.7 percent over Clinton statewide.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday for the Houston Chronicle, Reuters and C-SPAN by Zogby International, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

In Ohio Rueters Wire Services

...today he trails Clinton 44 percent to 42 percent in Ohio -- well within the poll's margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

The poll, conducted by Zogby International, found McCain with big double-digit margins over Huckabee in Texas and Ohio. Among Democrats, Obama has a big edge with voters in both states who made their decision within the last month. Clinton led comfortably in both states among voters who decided more than a month ago...

...Other opinion polls show tightening races in both states, where Clinton enjoyed big leads just a few weeks ago. "All the momentum is clearly with Obama," pollster John Zogby said. "The clearest indicator is the line of demarcation between those who decided early and those who are deciding late. The question is whether she can stem the tide." In Ohio, 9 percent of Democrats said they were still uncertain of their vote. In Texas, 7 percent of Democrats were not yet sure, leaving plenty of room for late swings...

...The rolling poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, with most of the survey coming after Tuesday night's combative debate in Ohio between the two
Democrats...

MSNBC's reporter stated this morning that there is this real buzz running through the Obama camp much like the buzz and anticipation that was felt in Iowa way back in the first week of January.

Polling Data going into "Firewall Tuesday"

Former President Bill Clinton emphatically saidthat unless Hillary Clinton wins both Ohio and Texas's primaries this coming Tuesday March 4th,---remember there are also two other state primaries on that date---Vermont and Rhode Island. Now of course as the polling data is beginning to go against Mrs. Clinton's candidancy they are trying to move the goal posts back some more and are saying they have to win just one primary and possibly Rhode Island's, naturally ignoring Vermont's. Well here is the polling data for your viewing.

1. US Election Polls has Obama up in Texas 57-43% (2/23)



2. US Election Polls also has Obama up in Ohion 54-46% (2/23)

How come they are so deviate from the national polls? Well here is their presentation:

Decision Analyst is the first pollster to proclaim Barack Obama as the leader in either of the two big states that vote on March 4: Texas, Ohio.

They say that they carefully selected the demographic compositions used in their polls. Most pollsters thus far have not been fully representing the support Barack Obama gets at the polls because the demographic composition of those going out to the polls tend to be under-represented in traditional polling based on previous turnout......

“As the second most populous state, Texas’ delegate count is large, and an Obama win of the magnitude indicated by our survey would most likely propel Obama to the Democratic nomination,” according to Jerry W. Thomas, President/CEO of Decision Analyst.

Now you ask well that is just obscure polling group but there is more! Pollster.com they are interesting in that composite the national polls regardless and look for trendlines.

Here is Texas's polling trend, notice Obama has passed Clinton this week as she is diving he is climbing in almost straight lines.

In Ohio Clinton is still holding a diminishing lead as Obama is rapidly climbing against her small increments.

Volunteer and Vender Information for Democratic CO's State and National Conventions

For those who are interested in volunteering at the Colorado Democratic State Convention & Assembly (Friday May 16th and Saturday May 17th) or the Democratic National Convention (August 25th-28th) in Denver CO here are some important links for you to sign up.

• Democratic National Convention
• Colorado State Convention
  

Post El Paso County Convention ReCap

Coming down after the biggest Democratic Party event in all the collective memories still living in Colorado Springs has been tough. Saturday February 23rd culminated our local campaign with celebratory chaotic, body-crushing, exhausting and exasperating day! The facts are that at least 2000, possibly as many as 2300 showed up at Palmer High School Saturday morning and deluged upon its main entrance, and 1747 were seated as delegates for either the Assembly or Convention portion---or possessing orange or blue credentials or both. All told 1553 voted in the Presidential Preference poll. Read the Gazette article here:

• Obama received 1072 votes = 271 delegates to the State Convention & CD-5 Assembly
  
• Clinton received 471 votes = 119 delegates to the State Convention & CD-5 Assembly
  
• Edwards received 9 votes = not viable
  
• Kucinich received 1 vote = not viable

Obama delegates caucused in House District divisions and apportioned the alloted delegates by size of delgations per House District and voted or selected their delegates to the State Convention/CD-5 Assembly.

• HD-14 had 33 delegates/alternates
• HD-15 had 33 delegates/alternates
• HD-16 had 34 delegates/alternates
• HD-17 had 17 delegates/alternates
• HD-18 had 50 delegates/alternates
• HD-19 had 25 delegates/alternates
• HD-20 had 41 delegates/alternates
• HD-21 had 38 delegates/alternates

For those interested the Congressional District 5 Assembly will elect 4 delegates and 1 alternate on Friday May 16th to the National Convention in Denver. The current apportionment projects that Obama pledged delegates will have the opportunity to vote in 3 Obama pledged delegates and the 1 alternate, leaving the remaining delegate to be selected by the Clinton pledged delegates. El Paso County makes up 82% of the CD-5 Assembly where it will join Fremont, Teller, Lake, Chaffee and Park Counties. The following day on Saturday May 17th 271 Obama pledged delegates and 199 Clinton delegates from El Paso County will join 4626 other delegates from all the other counties around Colorado to elect 12 pledged at-large delegates (and at-large alternates) to the National Convention and 37 pledged PLEO (party leaders & executive officers) to the National Convention.