Clinton to suspend and endorse Saturday, now "Monday Morning Quarterbacking"

The NY Times confirmed what ABC-News had broken earlier yesterday afternoon, that Hillary Clinton was going suspend her campaign and endorse Barack Obama for President. Interestingly the matter was actually determined in February when the NY Times in another article that described how Clinton couldn't hold on to the eventual key that became her firewall, the superdelegates. The article clinically describes the inevitable loss of pledged delegates in February virtually assuring that Obama would emerge as possessing over a 100 vote spread by the end of the contests where interviews with Clinton superdelegates stated did not allow for a political legitimacy to overturn the primary/caucus contests----AKA---THE MATH.

The fight for pledged delegates for the Democratic nomination was essentially over. Senator Barack Obama was ahead, after winning a series of caucuses in states that Mrs. Clinton virtually ignored.

Still, it became apparent that neither he nor Mrs. Clinton could claim the presidential nomination with pledged delegates alone, and the two would need superdelegates — elected officials and party activists — to fill the gap.

For Mrs. Clinton in particular, that signaled danger. The commanding lead she had held in superdelegates at the start of the contests — she was about 100 ahead of Mr. Obama — had dwindled by mid-March, to 12.

And superdelegates were showing an independence that the Clinton campaign had not counted on, not quite buying her argument that she was more electable than Mr. Obama.

The break in Mrs. Clinton’s supposed firewall turned out to be one of the most important factors in her campaign.

Essentially looking at the entire campaign as if it were team sports championship a review from a strategic/tactical basis shows that Obama won because of a consequence of events; a genuine change candidate in a change election cycle, (something that was self-evident in 2006 election), a tremendous candidate and excellent staff, the forwarding thinking attention to details election organization and execution and then---the consistent mistake ridden Clinton campaign where its vision and message allowed the Obama campaign to seize the advantage and then hold on against the onslaught of attacks.

We as supporters, volunteers and voters don't look into the nuts and bolts of a campaign operation as having much to do with its political legitimacy but in reality both the message and the campaign operations are inseparable. Clinton's team showed by execution their lacking as to properly read our society and electorate and also made presumptions and calculations that were inherently flawed. In reality they should have suspended in March when it was a foregone conclusion unless Obama imploded, but they did not and now have a bigger mess.

Obama also showed his mettle and capability while being on the politically defensive over the two months. In doing so the Obama campaign continued to show their ability to adjust, respond and compete holding serve as they ran out the proverbial clock. Now as winner, the party leaders are folding behind him like they should. What a subject for an advanced college course.

PRESUMED NOMINEE: Barack Obama currently possesses 2162 and counting

The drama and tension popped like that the net holding convention balloons upon the realization that the Democratic Party had finally come to an end to its competitive primary process. During the day as the polls in South Dakota and Montana remained open 27 1/2 new superdelegates were gathered putting Obama within 4 of clinching the nomination. Then five minutes before South Dakota closed the full force of the flood gates were opened and 36 more votes were gathered, mostly from the Governor's, Senator's and Congresspersons. Most notable were the ten switches yesterday and today seven more superdelegates have come over, another switch notably former VP Walter Mondale and also Rep. Raul Emanuel who is both a personal friend of Obama and former senior aide to the Clinton's.

There still remains 35 Add-On superdelegates to be determined through June 21st where Obama is expected to gain at least 20 and an additional 108 automatic superdelegates, plus 4 1/2 Edwards delegates to make their voting preference known. The next key number to watch for those scoring is 2208, the original clinching number where if Michigan and Florida delegations had full votes. When Obama reaches this number Clinton will not have any votes to do serious mischief at the convention. Look for remaining 34.4 high ranking superdelegates to move forward through this week and furthermore watch for significant defections from the eroding Clinton cache now at 183.5.

Finally I called my 80 year old father last night to get his comment on the historical significance of a bi-racial man being nominated for President in his lifetime, actually the question was whether he ever thought he would live to see that day? His response was that in 1910 Theodore Roosevelt stated that it would take a hundred years for the Blacks to ascend fully into our society and gain full political power. He was almost right, it has taken 98 years. He further added that it is now our cause to protect Barack Obama for there are a lot of kooks out there who still are racially psychotic. Lastly he said the actual question is whether I thought I would live to vote for a Black-American for president, and I hope I live to November when I cast my absentee ballot.

For any of you reading this blog just take a moment to understand the significance of this event. Barack Obama, the man with a culturally funny name, an offspring of an East African student and Kansas woman, who was basically raised by a twice divorced, single mother and grandmother through the '60's and '70's when race was still an enormous issue. His families economics were humble if not working poor, provided collegiate scholarships to the best our nation has to offer. Emerges in his middle age as a politician to challenge the most powerful party family and campaign team and goes and out performs, campaigns & organizes them, raising more money from more donors and through a historical contest bests them gaining the endorsements of the party leaders and insiders. This is Lincolnesque, and we aren't done yet.

[MORE BREAKING NEWS ]11.5 more superdelegate votes added this morning

The number has dropped to 34.5 before tonight's primary results are added in. Four Michigan superdelegates with half votes have endorsed Obama, Joyce LaLonde (DNC-MI), Carolyn Kirkpatrick (DNC-MI), Debbie Dingell (DNC-MI), and Richard Weirner (DNC-MI), plus Maria Chappell-Nadel (DNC-MO) and Jennifer DeCant (DNC-ME). This AM news brings Obama's superdelegate cache up to 341 and his hard count to 2083 and 34.5 short of the nomination threshold. Tonight expect Obama to pick up either 7 or 8 delegates from South Dakota, (the race will be close and the division will go either way), and 9 or 10 delegates from Montana, but with the three Montana superdelegates saying they will abide by the vote of their primary the cache haul should grow to an additional 12-13 from the Big Sky State. All told this would bring Obama up to the 19-20 from the final primary states, leaving him 14-15 short of the final threshold.

[MORE BREAKING NEWS 6 1/2MORE SUPERDELEGATES] The Obama campaign has gained the prestige of the endorsement of former President Jimmy Carter and six other superdelegates as the afternoon wore on. There is one lone commitment for Hillary Clinton amounting to 1/2 vote with a Floridian superdelegate. This brings the Obama campaign to 347 superdelegates and a hard count total to 2089.5 or 28.5 delegate votes needed to reach the nominating threshold. Those stepping forward are: President Jimmy Carter (DPL-GA), Carnelia Fondren (DNC-MS), John Perez (DNC-CA), Debra Kozkowski (DNC-MA), John Spratt (DNC-SC), Joyce Beatty (DNC-OH), and the 1/2 vote delegate from MI, Kwame Kirkpatrick (DNC_MI).

Mathematically this all but eliminates Clinton's hope in that she is at 1917 (201) needed and there are only 31 pledged delegates remaining, of which the best she is expected to gain is 16 (1933 or 185 short) and then there are 35 Add-on's reducing the superdelegate pool to 160. The most Clinton is expected to pick up in this pool is 15 bringing her up to 1948 or 160. The problem is that the is the Montana and Pelosi Clubs (now numbering is 8) bringing the potential pool of superdelegates to 152.

[MORE] BREAKING NEWS! MSNBC REPORTS 34 Congressional superdelegates to endorse Obama

MSNBC is reporting on their First Read website that 34 Congressional Superdelegates are massing to endorse Obama either tomorrow night or Wednesday morning essentially putting him over the top.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Buzz on the Capitol Hill suggests that has many as 34 of the undeclared superdelegates residing in the House will endorse Obama by Wednesday. As many as 18 of these 34 -- many of them elected to Congress in the last four years -- will come out for Obama tomorrow so he can edge closer to his magic number before the vote counting ends in South Dakota and Montana. The biggest Obama get in the House to date will come tomorrow when House Dem Caucus Chairman Jim Clyburn officially declares.

[MORE BREAKING] CO's Sen. Ken Salazar is reported from WaPo to have called a meeting with Iowa's Sen Harkin, of the 15 of the uncommitted U.S. Senators meeting at the Democratic National HQ's.

The remaining Democratic senators who have yet to pick a side in the party's presidential nomination fight will meet this afternoon at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's headquarters on Capitol Hill to plot strategy for the coming days, according to Democratic sources.

The gathering was put together by Sens. Ken Salazar (Colo.) and Tom Harkin (Iowa), neither of whom has publicly endorsed a candidate. Roughly a dozen other Democratic Senators are also in that category, plus Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.), who is avowedly neutral but has been in discussions with Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) over how to bring the contest to a close soon. It is not clear yet how many Senators will attend the meeting at the DSCC, since the chamber is not expected to vote until later today.

CNN reported today that "most" of the currently uncommitted Senators will endorse Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) after tomorrow's primaries, though the network did not give any further details.

Presumed Nomination Watch: Obama gains 3.5 delegate votes to Clinton's 2

In the final day before the final primary day of 2008 five superdelegates endorsed Obama, (two half votes from Michigan and one from Florida) bringing his total to 334 superdelegates and 2074.5 hard count overall and leaving him him 42.5 short of the needed 2017. Those who endorsed are: Jerome Segovia (DNC-VA), Nancy DiNardo (DNC-CT) providing full votes and the half votes were Brenda Lawrence (DNC-MI), Lu Battaglieri (DNC-MI) and Janee Murphy (DNC-FL). Clinton picked up another supedelegate from LA; Chris Whittington (DNC-LA) and one from her home state, Irene Stein (DNC-NY).

Tomorrow Montana and South Dakota go to the polls with their 31 pledged delegates at stake, (MT has 16 and SD has 15). Obama is expected to prevail to the level of possibly as much as Oregon and should pick up 17-19 delegates, leaving between 26 and 28 superdelegate endorsements short. Remember Obama's campaign should have a minimum of 20 Add-On superdelegates yet to be determined at various state conventions and committee meetings through June 21st. Remember also Pelosi is holding those 6 Pelosi Pledged superdelegates who have publicly stated they will fall behind the pledged delegate winner. This puts Obama in the virtual winner circle outside the continuing endorsements by the remaining superdelegates.

Another way to look at it is the number of opportunity delegates Clinton is losing and thereby mathematically will be eliminated from getting to 2017. Currently she is at 1916.5 (or 201.5 short), and there are the following circumstances. She is expected to gain only 13 delegates tomorrow, bringing her total up to 1929 (or 187 short). Further she is expected to win 15 Add-On's bringing her total to 1944 or 172 short where she would have to gain the rest from the superdelegate pool----which is really 162 (removing the Add-On's). If we take Pelosi and her pledged club members at their word the pool is reduced further to 156 or an impossibility of coming up 16 short----or she would have to either switch superdelegates now endorsed to Obama or sweep South Dakota and Montana in somehow gaining an additional 16 delegates. Oh there is one other place, the 13.5 still neutral Edwards delegates. This is why the last gasp will be to go to the credentials committee and strip Obama of the 29.5 Michigan delegates. Far fetch this is going to happen but even if it does it does not allow Clinton to put those delegates in her camp for they are uncommitted and can still vote for Obama.

This is over except for the timing and speeches. By the way MSNBC has just reported that the Clinton campaign has shut down their advance teams and is calling all senior advisor's to New York for a morning meeting.

Decision Weekend; Obama loses 24 1/2 net delegates and wins!

The drawn out drama yesterday in DC when the DNC Rules Committee met and decided essentially put a hard finish line on securing the nomination for the Obama campaign. By the way the reason I refer to Obama for President in the plural (as someone asked) is that Barack Obama's effort to become president is not a singular person's goal, it is a constituency and pluralistic movement, not just a man. Which in many ways defines the difference between Hillary Clinton's ambition and what Obama represents. Now yesterday the basic situation came down to this:

Florida offered a compromise where by the beauty contest known as the primary was used as the basis to allot their pledged delegates, 52.5 to 34.5 (but under a 1/2 vote basis including their superdelegates). Only Senator Nelson objected to his vote being reduced by 1/2 vote but that was rejected and their plan was approved by 100% in a committee vote.

Michigan was more complicated as even the Michigan leaders admitted since the entire primary was flawed due to Obama and all the others removal of their name on the ballot leaving only Clinton. Eventually the Michigan delegation offered a compromise of 69-59 to Clinton (and then penalizing the non compliant primary by allocating 1/2 votes for all of the delegation). All told Obama lost 2.5 votes from another plan of apportioning the delegation to 50/50 split and Clinton lost 2.5 votes if they used strictly the vote of Clinton and uncommitted. Here Clinton is threatening to go to the Convention floor in a credentials fight to try to gain those 2.5 votes and strip Obama of his 29.5.

On Thursday and Friday the Obama campaign continued to gain endorsementsGail Rasmussen (DNC-OR), a pair of DNC committee persons from Texas, Boyd and Betty Richie (DNC-TX) and Rep. Alan Monohan (D-WV). Clinton picked up a pair of DNC members, Buddy Leach (DNC-LA) and Eileen Macoll (DNC-WA). All told including the 5 Floridian and 5 Michigan superdelegates places the Obama campaign at 328.5 to Clinton's 290, ( a lead of 38.5). Obama's current hard count delegate count is 2052, 65 short of the 2117, that is now the hard finish line for the nomination. Clinton currently stands at 1876.5, 175.5 behind Obama. from individual superdelegates (4-2), )

Today Puerto Rico votes where Clinton is expected to win but look for the Obama campaign to pick up a minimum of 20 pledged delegates and possibly 22-23. Axelrod predicted 25 back in January. Also today expect Obama to pick up at least two superdelegates from Maine's State Convention (one Add-On) and probably another committee person, maybe all three. All told this will reduce the magic number to between 40-42 delegates. On Tuesday the campaign expects to gain 19-20 pledged delegates from SD and MT's primaries, bringing the number down to 22-19.

Watch as on Monday that the Congressional delegation where many superdelegates who remain uncommitted will endorse Obama to the tune of 22 to more likely 25-30 and set up the Montana primary as the crescendo ending of the nomination process, allowing Obama to give a national winner speech on TV.

What to look forward to: My best guess is that Obama will offer Clinton the VP spot but under unacceptable conditions, not an active cabinet role et cetera...etc... Clinton will have no choice but to decline, but there will be another side deal for the show, something like the Senate Majority Leader or Supreme Court appointment. There Obama will be able to unite the party under his terms.