6/5/08

Clinton to suspend and endorse Saturday, now "Monday Morning Quarterbacking"

The NY Times confirmed what ABC-News had broken earlier yesterday afternoon, that Hillary Clinton was going suspend her campaign and endorse Barack Obama for President. Interestingly the matter was actually determined in February when the NY Times in another article that described how Clinton couldn't hold on to the eventual key that became her firewall, the superdelegates. The article clinically describes the inevitable loss of pledged delegates in February virtually assuring that Obama would emerge as possessing over a 100 vote spread by the end of the contests where interviews with Clinton superdelegates stated did not allow for a political legitimacy to overturn the primary/caucus contests----AKA---THE MATH.

The fight for pledged delegates for the Democratic nomination was essentially over. Senator Barack Obama was ahead, after winning a series of caucuses in states that Mrs. Clinton virtually ignored.

Still, it became apparent that neither he nor Mrs. Clinton could claim the presidential nomination with pledged delegates alone, and the two would need superdelegates — elected officials and party activists — to fill the gap.

For Mrs. Clinton in particular, that signaled danger. The commanding lead she had held in superdelegates at the start of the contests — she was about 100 ahead of Mr. Obama — had dwindled by mid-March, to 12.

And superdelegates were showing an independence that the Clinton campaign had not counted on, not quite buying her argument that she was more electable than Mr. Obama.

The break in Mrs. Clinton’s supposed firewall turned out to be one of the most important factors in her campaign.

Essentially looking at the entire campaign as if it were team sports championship a review from a strategic/tactical basis shows that Obama won because of a consequence of events; a genuine change candidate in a change election cycle, (something that was self-evident in 2006 election), a tremendous candidate and excellent staff, the forwarding thinking attention to details election organization and execution and then---the consistent mistake ridden Clinton campaign where its vision and message allowed the Obama campaign to seize the advantage and then hold on against the onslaught of attacks.

We as supporters, volunteers and voters don't look into the nuts and bolts of a campaign operation as having much to do with its political legitimacy but in reality both the message and the campaign operations are inseparable. Clinton's team showed by execution their lacking as to properly read our society and electorate and also made presumptions and calculations that were inherently flawed. In reality they should have suspended in March when it was a foregone conclusion unless Obama imploded, but they did not and now have a bigger mess.

Obama also showed his mettle and capability while being on the politically defensive over the two months. In doing so the Obama campaign continued to show their ability to adjust, respond and compete holding serve as they ran out the proverbial clock. Now as winner, the party leaders are folding behind him like they should. What a subject for an advanced college course.

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