9/16/08

I am back for the next 50 days....


I was asked and have decided to resume this blog as we hurl towards election day. Yesterday I had the occasion to volunteer and attend my 4th Obama event in Colorado, this time at the State Fair Grounds in Pueblo, CO with 13,500 other attendees. Barack Obama was on his game giving a speech that fellow traveler and volunteer Mike Maday said was even better than the Invesco Acceptance Speech. I am not sure, Invesco was something else, but I think the Denver University was even stronger as a speech.

That said it matters little as our nation, our government, our society, our culture and our economy cascade down the uncertain future where our financial markets collapse. Monday as we worked Pueblo the DOW fell over 500 points, yesterday it fell further and today it keeps going lower. Understand this, if you are positioned in the market you will probably be holding the bag as the big boys are using rear guard tactics to get their money out before the floor collapses.

Hardball You Tube It's the Fundamentals....22 Times, yes McCain has said the eocnomy has solid fundamentals 22 times until yesterday when he got smacked for such stupidity. Best You Tube video is here capsulizing his morning show talks and his utter confusing double talk that he was really talking about America's workers.

As Dr. Evil would say "Right" . The thing is even though David Plouffe and the campaign team is not basing any of their strategy on National Polls the bounce felt by the Republicans coming out of their convention with their lying liars being exposed over time is now fading. MSNBC's First Read states:
the political worm seems to have turned a tad since the Palin bounce. Indeed, while we’re not crazy about focusing too much on those daily tracking polls, their needles have moved in Obama’s direction the past couple of days
The reality is, if that can be said in a Presidential Campaign with this Republican Party is that their entire campaign is not comprised of actually selling the persons of John McCain and/or Sarah Palin to the American electorate, it is selling their "made up" stories to the electorate. The thing is the press is beginning to not buy it. You can see how this is turning in this You Tube out take from Talking Points Memo.

Now the polls, "The Gallup Tracking Poll"
update shows Barack Obama regaining a slight, although not statistically significant, edge over John McCain, 47% to 45%, among registered voters, marking the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a one percentage point margin over Obama.
Other polls that are more pertinent in 9 battleground states is CO, OH, VA, PA, NH, MI, NM, MN, WI. Real Clear Politics has Colorado a dead heat with Obama averaging 0.06-point lead, Virginia is closer with a 0.5-point lead, Pennsylvania he has a 1.6 point average lead, in Michigan he has a 2-point lead, New Mexico he has a 2.-point lead, New Hampshire he possesses a 3-point lead, Minnesota ther is a 4.7-point lead. my former state Wisconsin he has pulled a 5.3-point lead while McCain has a 2.3 point lead in Ohio, Missouri and Florida McCain enjoys a 6.6-point lead and a slight lead in Nevada with a 1-point lead where Obama is today.

What this means is the Electoral College is in play with Obama holding a 89 EV vote advantage to McCain's 53 EV votes in the battleground states. Real Clear holds that Obama has 207 Electoral Votes in the bank and with 89 it would put him at a winning 296. But it remains close.

To place this in context here is an article that was published during the Democratic National Convention in the LA Times featuring David Plouffe.

DENVER -- David Plouffe, an architect of Barack Obama's surprise ascension to the pinnacle of the Democratic Party, did not look today like a fellow under duress because of the recent spate of national polls showing his candidate losing much of the advantage he's enjoyed over John McCain.

That's because, to hear him tell it (as he did at a press briefing), he all but ignores the surveys that tend to stir much interest among others.

"We don't pay attention to national polls," he said, referring to himself and the rest of the Obama team charged with winning the 270 electoral votes -- accrued through 51 separate contests in the states and the District of Columbia -- to win the White House.

Instead, as Plouffe reviewed the status of the race, he said he and his colleagues concentrate on other matters. Such as, most importantly, the undecided voters in the 18 states they see as the campaign's key battlegrounds and -- in those locales and elsewhere -- efforts to spur turnout of Obama supporters.

"We stay laser-focused on these two factors each and every day," he said.

The obsession on turnout is a key reason he turns a blind eye to the national polls -- and remains pretty positive in his assessment of the race, handwringing among some Democrats notwithstanding. .

Pollsters generally base their sampling group on past voting patterns. But the electorate in 2008, Plouffe said flatly, "is going to be changed in some fundamental ways from 2004."

He did concede this much about the soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee:

"McCain has more strength with independent voters than most Republicans. We as a party can be bummed out about that, but we've got to deal with it."

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