Polls swinging in new swing states...battlegrounds being flanked and local developments turning our way

Seven weeks until November 4th, but voting is either just beginning in some states and will begin in two weeks in Colorado, (a battleground and possible tipping point state) . Last week might be considered a turning point in this election if trends continue to become a pattern where the very foundation of the American Economy teetered on collapse ON THE VERY DAY THAT MCCAIN said the "Economy is Strong"---Right John what bubble are you living in? Of course in a Depression one market that continues to remain strong is the liquor business and being a gold digger of a beer distributorship fortune I guess the economy is strong FOR YOU!

The week finished up with this unusually strong commentary on ABC's This Week with George Stephanopoulos where old DC journalist Sam Donaldson hammered McCain stating that last week's performance put the "age issue" back on the table. George Will, the conservative columnist but now a open agitator towards the 21st Century Republicanism opening mused that that Obama should "calm and steady leadership" while it was McCain who demonstrated rash and explosive reactions to them market collapse calling for the firing of conservative SEC Chairman. He further chastised McCain for disengenous popularism as political pandering equating McCain to William Jennings Bryan---the turn of the century Democratic perennial candidate and populist. You can see if for yourself on You Tube here.

MS BUD for you

The McCain camp has been all over the air waves about elitism but of course how many of you own 11 cars? Newsweek has a story on the 13 to one ratio:

When you have seven homes, that's a lot of garages to fill. After the fuss over the number of residences owned by the two presidential nominees, NEWSWEEK looked into the candidates' cars. And based on public vehicle-registration records, here's the score. John and Cindy McCain: 13. Barack and Michelle Obama have one car!

Obama's Garage

1. 2008 Ford Escape hybrid

McCain's garage

1. Toyota Prius (their daughters)
2. 2004 Cadillac CTS (John's personal car....look out for those senior turns)
3. 2005 Volkswagen convertible
4. 2001 Honda sedan
5. 2007 half-ton Ford pickup truck
6. 1960 Willys Jeep
7. 2008 Jeep Wrangler
   
8. 2000 Lincoln
9. 2001 GMC SUV
10. 2000 NEV Gem electric vehicle, (bubble-shaped cars popular in retirement communities.)
11. 2000 NEV Gem electric vehicle
12. 2000 NEV Gem electric vehicle
13. Lexus, is registered to her family's beer-distributor business and is outfitted with personalized plates that read MS BUD

Now the polls:

The continue to move at a steady and overwhelmingly pro Obama direction. The national tracking polls continue to separate, new polls in previous McCain leaning states like NC, IN, & FL move towards ties and battleground states like MI, OH, PA, CO, NM, NH NV, VA move towards Obama in close but decisive ways. This is not surprising in some ways since all the polls and the internal data from the campaign show that the electorate is now down to 15% UNDECIDED and those leaning have either moved to the UNDECIDED or moved to the firm support. Interesting since in recent years past this decision process usually comes after the first debate. Now it is a week ahead of it.

STATE POLLS:

• Michigan
  

09/17 Marist Obama 52% to McCain 43%
09/17 Detroit News Obama 43% to McCain 42%
09/17 Big10 Battleground Obama 48% to McCain 44%

• North Carolina:
  

09/20/08 PPP 46%-46% TIE!
09/22/08 Rasmussen McCain 50% to Obama 47%
09/14/08 CNN-TIME McCain 48% to Obama 47%

• Pennsylvania
  

09/18 NBC Mason-Dixon Obama 46 to McCain 44%
09/17 Big10 Battleground 45-45% TIE
09/15 Marist Obama 49% to McCain 44%

• Ohio
  

09/17 Big10 Battleground Obama 46% to McCain 45%
09/16 Ohio Newspaper McCain 48% to Obama 42%
09/15 Marist Obama 47% to McCain 45%
09/14 National Journalism McCain 42% t Obama 42%
09/14 CNN-TIME Obama 49% to McCain 47%

• Virginia
  

09/17 InADV McCain 48% to Obama 46%
09/14 FOX McCain 48% to Obama 48% TIE
09/14 PPP Obama 48% to McCain 46%

• Colorado
  

09/17 InADV Obama 51% to McCain 41%
09/15 National Journal Obama 45% to McCain 44%
09/14 FOX McCain McCain 48% to Obama 46%

• New Hampshire

09/09 CNN-TIME Obama 51% to McCain 45%

• New Mexico
  

09/16 Survey USA Obama Obama 52% to McCain 44%
09/15 National Journal Obama 49% to McCain 42%

• Nevada
  

09/21 Suffolk McCain 46% to Obama 45%

National Polls

• Gallup
  

09/20 Obama 49% to McCain 45%
09/19 Obama 50% to McCain 44%
09/18 Obama 49% to McCain 44%
09/17 Obama 48% to McCain 44%
09/15 Obama 47% to McCain 45%

• Rasmussen
  

09/22 Obama 48% to McCain 47%
09/20 Obama 48% to McCain 47%
09/19 Obama 485 to McCain 47%

Local developments:

Last night we had a county-wide team leader meeting where over 50 volunteer coordinators showed up. The meeting was to exchange experiences and best practices regarding our ground game activities but it also clearly showed a transition shift in the ground game targeting activity from open persuasion and voter contact towards seeking out the UNDECIDED and leaners of both candidates and using economic issues to make the final push of closing up support. The effort was to close up and increase volunteer time and activist before the GET OUT THE VOTE activities begin. Furthermore we were told that literally thousands of potential volunteers will be arriving for the final weeks of the campaign to help out in this battleground state.

My own home was canvassed for the 3rd time this week by volunteers going over the neighborhood and closing up support. We have been called at least three times by the Democratic Coordinated Campaign and once by the Republican's. I am certain that each of you in a battleground state will be visited and phoned at least twice.

REAL LOCAL DATA:

I talked with the elections department at our local County Clerk's department and Jayce their stat-guy told me some interesting items. In the computer as of now there are 10, 900 new Republican registrations, 9000 new Democratic registrations and 14,500 Unaffiliated registrations. All told to date 105,000 of all registrations are mail in ballot and they expect to greatly exceed 250,000 voters this November. They hope 30,000 early vote, thus with an increase of 33,000 new voters and many on the way, they think that the possiblility exists that 300,000 votes will be cast in El Paso County where possibly 160,000 or more on election day.

Now because of the election ballot initiatives it will take a person an average of 15 minutes to vote or 4 per hour per booth. There are 390 or so polling places with roughly 10 polling places or 40 an hour. The math does not work. This means 13,333 need to vote per hour (7 AM t 7 PM) or if evenly distributed if all polling places were at capacity 12 hours they could accomodate 34 persons an hour. But we know that most people vote early or after work.

There will be long lines and many disputes---folks vote by mail!