Yes, three more superdelegates today,

The Obama campaign secured the endorsements of three more superdelegatesPat Waak (DNC-CO) followed by Oregon's Party Chair, Meredith Wood-Smith (DNC-OR). Guam's Senator also announced his endorsement, bringing their total to 319.5 (compared to 279.5 for Clinton). This grows Obama's hard count to 1980 (45 short of the 2025) and increases his lead over Clinton to over 200 delegates (201) and a lead of 40 superdelegates. Today's headline begins with our own Democratic Party Chair, Ben C. Pangelinan (DNC-GU), bring up the 3rd announcement.

In other news the Florida Democratic Party lawsuit regarding the Democratic Rules was dismissed.

A federal judge in Tampa has again tossed out a lawsuit filed by a Florida political consultant angry that his vote in the state's Democratic primary will not count. Victor DiMaio's lawsuit contended that the Democratic National Committee is discriminating against Florida voters. DiMaio argued that party leaders unfairly allowed Nevada and South Carolina to hold their presidential primaries prior to February 5, in part because of the sizable minority populations in both states, but punished Florida and Michigan for skirting the rules.

The math continues to squeeze any sense of the campaign having an orderly finish. Obama is now 45 delegates away from the eventual winning number and prediction models hold that he should be able to pick up between 38-42 next week. Originally Axelrod predicted 25 from PR and 9 & 8 from MT & SD, but PR could swing harder one way and MT and SD stronger for Obama. I have model working at 40. I am also predicting that Obama dribbles out 4 more superdelegates tomorrow and Friday, gains the Add-On out of ME and then secures 40 or 41 over primaries and declares he is at 2026, whereby he then gathers 50-75 superdelegates in a deluge finishing off the race once and for all.

Another superdelegate and a hint about banked superdelegates.

This morning Obama gained another superdelegate endorsement from neighboring Wyoming in Nancy Drummond (DNC-WY) bringing his superdelegate total to 316.5 and 1977.5 hard count overall. This reduces the Obama hard count magic number to 48 needed to nominate. The daily narrative (which might be the name I take for my next political blog) has moved over to Bill Clinton bullying the press by saying that Hillary Clinton is the victim again. Both ways Bill is a master of making any accusation because he is above press reproach, for now.

I just witnessed MSNBC former fellow Bloomington IN resident, David Schuster, tear into a Clinton spokesperson when he challenged her on the quit narrative. First Schuster asked the female spokesperson whether she believed the press had for month said Hillary should quit and she answered in a strong affirmative. Then he followed up by asking who, specifically and the spokesperson balked and jived saying she said they were saying the math was against her. Schuster said those are altogether different and said who said for Hillary to quit.

Atlantic.com's Mark Ambinder today stated:

To prepare for that eventuality, the Obama campaign has, for the first time, really, begun to bank delegates. Sources close to the campaign estimate that as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5. The campaign is determined that Obama not end the first week in June without securing the support of delegates numbering 2026 -- or 2210, as the case may be.

Memoral Day, 3 more superdelegates, when a joke is not a joke, more Hillary's non-apology and my final comment.

Yesterday the Obama campaign continued to surge forward towards the inevitable nomination as it picked up three (3) more superdelegate endorsements out Hawaii's State Central Committee Meeting. There two automatic superdelegates were selected to fill their remaining slots; State Party Chairman Brian Schatz (DNC-HI) and vice chairwoman Kari Luna (DNC-HI) were chosen in the DNC slots and have stated they will support Obama at the national convention, and then Hawaii state democrats chose retired Justice James Burns (Add-On-HI) who is also an Obama supporter, its last remaining superdelegate. This brings Obama's hard count total up to 276.5 combined with his pledged delegates up to 1976 (49 short of the 2025).

Repeating myself this leaves him 9 short of 2025 if the projected 40 pledged delegates Obama is conservatively predicted to secure in next week's three remaining primaries (PR, MT, & SD). There is one Add-On superdelegate (ME) that will be chosen before next week's primaries coincidentally in another state that Obama won. Jimmy Carter is predicting that the superdelegates will force Hillary Clinton to withdraw within a week.

The news focused much on Clinton's use of the word assassination to justify her remaining in the race where she used her access to a NY newspaper, (Daily News owned by Mortimor Zuckerman):

This past Friday, during a meeting with a newspaper editorial board, I was asked about whether I was going to continue in the presidential race.

I made clear that I was - and that I thought the urgency to end the 2008 primary process was unprecedented. I pointed out, as I have before, that both my husband's primary campaign, and Sen. Robert Kennedy's, had continued into June.

Almost immediately, some took my comments entirely out of context and interpreted them to mean something completely different - and completely unthinkable.

I want to set the record straight: I was making the simple point that given our history, the length of this year's primary contest is nothing unusual. Both the executive editor of the newspaper where I made the remarks, and Sen. Kennedy's son, Bobby Kennedy Jr., put out statements confirming that this was the clear meaning of my remarks. Bobby stated, "I understand how highly charged the atmosphere is, but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense."

I realize that any reference to that traumatic moment for our nation can be deeply painful - particularly for members of the Kennedy family, who have been in my heart and prayers over this past week. And I expressed regret right away for any pain I caused.

But I was deeply dismayed and disturbed that my comment would be construed in a way that flies in the face of everything I stand for - and everything I am fighting for in this election.

And today, I would like to more fully answer the question I was asked: Why do I continue to run, even in the face of calls from pundits and politicians for me to leave this race?

I am running because I still believe I can win on the merits. Because, with our economy in crisis, our nation at war, the stakes have never been higher - and the need for real leadership has never been greater - and I believe I can provide that leadership.

I am not unaware of the challenges or the odds of my securing the nomination - but this race remains extraordinarily close, and hundreds of thousands of people in upcoming primaries are still waiting to vote. As I have said so many times over the course of this primary, if Sen. Obama wins the nomination, I will support him and work my heart out for him against John McCain. But that has not happened yet.

I am running because I believe staying in this race will help unite the Democratic Party. I believe that if Sen. Obama and I both make our case - and all Democrats have the chance to make their voices heard - in the end, everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee.

Ms. Hillary Clinton, this is not an apology that clearly demonstrates empathy or contrition, it is what a lawyer who write to a court. Senator Clinton this is no different than crying "Fire" in a crowded theater, or "Bomb" on an airplane, "Hilter" at a Jewish Synagogue. It is plainly an inflammatory word that is inexcusable.

Now that leads us to the former editor of the Washington Times and 3-time Emmy award winner, Liz Tratta, who is a FOX News Contributor. She also stepped in it yesterday and had to apologize this morning with her indigenous joke about assassination and Obama. If this past you by yesterday on the FOX Cable News Ms. Tratta was a guest commentator with Eric Shawn who inquired Tratta's thoughts on Clinton's assassination word usage, Politico's Michael Calderone reports:

Trotta: "And now we have what some are reading as a suggestion that somebody knock off Osama, uh Obama. Well, both, if we could."

Shawn: "Talk about how you really feel."

Today on with Bill Hemmer she came on and apologized:

Trotta: Yes, I am so sorry about what happened yesterday and the lame attempt at humor. I feel all over myself, making it appear that I wished Barack Obama harm or any other candidate, for that matter, and I sincerely regret it and apologize to anybody I have offended. It is a very colorful political season, and many of us are making mistakes and saying things we wish we had not said.

Well this continuing Freudian Slip about the assassination of a candidate who's had to take on secret service detail because of threats, is there an agenda by individual media types and politicians mixing up "Osama" and "Obama" to the November Election Day? Who's kidding who?

Now here is a thought about the actual Clinton strategy. Some have speculated that she wants something, be it a VP spot (that ended with her word usage, and actually never was), cabinet post, (yeah her and Governor Lepetomane from the movie "Blazing Saddles"), a Supreme Court appointment, (really...that would be something), no what she wants is the Presidency continuation of the Clintons’ unmasked sense of narcissistic entitlement. Neither Bill nor Hillary appear to give a damn about the Democrats actually retaking the White House if it is not a Clinton.

Actions speak volumes when it comes to politics and persons. If I recall correctly when their supposed friend and former running mate Al Gore sought the presidency back before "W". Both the Clintons' gave what was an apparent endorsement, but if you have more than a short term memory they didn't give their full effort behind Al Gore. On the contrary they simply gave what was nothing but political lip-service to Gore's campaign, and now in retrospect being content to give White House to the Republicans and their "Conservatives Without Conscience" governance. They were able to build a supposed inevitable Hillary candidacy with eight years in the Senate making her the inevitable for a run in 2008. That has not come to pass, failing miserably with a error filled and arrogant campaign, heavily in debt resulting in a divisive outcome for her and Bill.

It appears certain now the Clintons will try to punch as many holes in Obama's political career and ascendancy to the White House as they possibly can, using what is left of the Clinton political machine. Their seat of the pants strategy will be to try to unearth as many "Obama-suspect" issues there are media types willing to repeat them, yet with a sublime surrogate benefit to prop up McCain's candidacy. In what will be a transparent passive-aggressive move endorse Barack Obama repeating their Al Gore strategy by mouthing the words but not truly campaigning for Obama.

Why? This will seek to have Sen. McCain to become the next president and with a continuation of the current Bush foreign policy and economic policy, which will again open the field for Hillary to be the presumptive Democratic nominee in 2012. Reality is that the Clintons don't give a hill of beans about America's surging problems or the idea of its working and middle classes shrinking squeeze or the exploitations of our minorities or the growing elderly unless they are eating off a new set of White House china.

Here is my sage predictions: The Clinton's will actually escalate negativism towards Obama and the Democratic Party following this week's Rules Committee meeting and the National Convention. They will push with emotion the issue of Michigan and Florida even seeking emergency legal action. Her campaign will try anything and everything to make a final play for the superdelegates, including digging up any more dirt on Obama saying is is less electable attempting to leave the Democratic Party in a desired shreds. Then saying she is physically and emotionally give a public crying "jag" illicitly seeking feminist sympathy and going home to Bill, Chelsea and the dogs.

This their plan, Wolfson, Terry McA, Ickles and the lot. But there are significant defections who are providing Obama political intelligence. The Democrats and the elders will not let this happen without more damage to the Clintons, possibly ex-communication or ostracism from the Party. Obama will prevail through all of this, the same way Lincoln, Washington and Roosevelt prevailed, because Obama will have the votes. With the votes he will reclaim the Democratic Party from the Clinton's and win the Presidency leaving Hillary without an important seat in the Senate and Bill being exposed as a blowhard. Such irony and actually a better book than the Little Prince, possibly titled the Little Princess.

Obama contines to gain on delegates, while Clinton is running in place

The old adage, if you are standing still, than you must be going backwards, for time waits for no one, as song by the Rolling Stones. Yesterday in the state conventions and state committee meetings in GA, WY, & AK the Obama campaign picked up 3 Add-on superdelegates to Clinton's one. In GA the campaign's split with Obama gaining the commitment of Stephen Leeds (Add-on-GA), while Clinton picked up Verna Cleveland (Add-On GA) who is their State Party Director. In WY the Obama campaign secured W. Patrick Googles (Add-on-WY), while in AK Obama picked up former Gov. Tony Knowles (Add-On-AK) and the remaining at-large delegate bring his final total to 14 in that state. That is a net 3 for Obama moving the campaign to 274 hard count delegates OR 51 short of the 2025. Today Hawaii meets in their State Party Committee where an additional Add-On superdelegate will be selected, a state that Obama won by over 70%.

I suspect that next week will see another slow, steady progression of superdelegate endorsements will surface, but probably less than the ten needed to absolutely secure the nomination in the eyes of the national press. The reason is that many are going to wait for the DNC Rules Committee outcome on the FL's & MI's delegations. The word among everyone is that the delegations will be seated in some form of half strength, the question is the allotment. The backdrop to the entire meeting next weekend is the prospect that Obama is expected to garnish the cache of 40 pledged delegates (out of 86 possible). Clinton's last gasp strategy is to win the popular vote in the three remaining contests which all the polls state that MT & SD will fall in Obama's win column. Also expect Obama to pick up one more Add-On superdelegate next weekend from Maine, (again which Obama won the state). After that there are 34 Add-On's to be selected from 20 states through 6/21/08.

My projections have it that Obama will win 20 of those 34. Outside the Add-On's there are 169 superdelegates remaining to declare their intentions. Also there are 7 Edwards pledged delegates who still remain uncommitted to either campaigns. In conclusion you can see how close this actually is when the three remaining contests conclude June 3rd. It is there that I believe an unquestioned winner will be declared and the remaining 160 or automatic superdelegates will fold in behind Obama, saying he has earned the mantle of Democratic Presidential Candidate

UPDATE: (NH, Edwards delegates come over to Obama) Three more superdelegates go to Obama, Clinton minus net one again.

Yesterday was a strange day as the Obama campaign did not announce a superdelegate endorsement while the Clinton campaign proudly announced they had gained Pilar Lujan (DNC-GU). Today that happiness ended as the Clinton campaign lost another superdelegate where Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-CA) switched, while Obama also picked up another California Congressman, Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA) and Jenny Greenleaf (DNC-OR) bringing Obama to 309.5. All told Obama now has 1969 pledged delegates and superdelegates in his stable and is just 56 short of clinching under the 2025 rules.

UPDATE: New Hampshire Edwards pledged delegates come over to Obama, State Sen. Peter Burling (D-Cornish) and Hanover activist Deborah Bacon-Nelson made the announcement this morning at Lebanon High School, where Bacon-Nelson is a teacher.

I love to repeat this but expect Obama to gain 40 delegates from the three remaining contests in MT, SD and PR. Also over the next two weekends 6 Add-On superdelegates areselected in GA(2), WY(1), AK(1), HI(1), ME(1), states that Obama won by large margins.This would put him at 2015 on June 3rd without anymore superdelegate endorsements. By June 15th there are 20 more Add-On superdelegates will be chosen, (Ky, MN, PA, TX, VT, MS, MT, WI, ID, VA, WV, WA), where it is expected that Obama should pick up a minimum of 14. Naturally this would put Obama well over the top.

Now this is as strange as the entire Clinton campaign strategy as running as an incumbent where CNN is now reporting more details on the Hillary effort to negotiate into the VP slot. CNN is reporting now as Clinton insiders and close friends are actively floating three possible scenarios which they believe will influence whether or how the two teams merge. Several close friends and supporters of Hillary Clinton tell CNN they are pushing for a "graceful exit strategy" that would allow the Clinton and Obama camps to come together, and for the New York senator to save face should she fail to become the nominee. The discussions are not taking place between the campaigns, but rather among informal campaign advisers on both sides who are trying to actively influence and shape the debate as the competition nears a close June 3.

• The first scenario is if Obama ignores Clinton and her supporters and makes the vice presidential offer to someone else where on insider stated: "This would be a total dismissal of her and totally unacceptable. This could mean open civil war within the party," another said. "A rupture in the party. If he doesn't offer at all, you've got a breakdown. A real resentment there."Another source said it would not mean Clinton would refuse to campaign for Obama. But she would do so the way Bill Clinton campaigned for Al Gore, which the source characterized as "aloof." Another source said it would affect the willingness of some women's groups to raise money for Obama.

• The second scenario they foresee is for Obama to publicly offer Clinton the vice-presidential spot, with the understanding she would turn it down. But several Clinton friends say "the problem is the two sides do not trust each other" to follow through on this.

• The third scenario they envision would be trying to get both the candidates to sit down face-to-face and work out an agreement suitable to both parties. Some Clinton insiders say some points to consider would be how to help pay off the Clinton campaign debt — roughly $30 million — or whether he would offer support for a possible Clinton effort to become Senate majority leader.

• Clinton insiders say Hillary Clinton is aware that some of her supporters are pushing for her to get an offer to join the ticket, but they say she has not thought about whether she wants the VP slot, because she's still campaigning for the top job.

• There is a real split in the Clinton camp as to whether Clinton should even accept an offer to join the ticket, if it were to ever materialize.

Also a typical Clinton sublime twist is that they are now accusing the Obama campaign for leaking the story. (GOSH I recall the last leak accusation where Clinton accused Obama of leaking the NAFTA-Canada thing----but then it was found out to be a Clinton black bag job.) And then there is now the pronounced effort by Diane Feinstein (a big Hillary supporter) teaming up with Bill Clinton shamelessly demanding Clinton to be on the ballot.

UPDATE: Conflicting breaking NEWS ON THE WEB: Hillary either asks for VP, Obama politely says "No", OR CNN Reports negotiations difficult over VP spot

UPDATE: CNN is reporting this morning citing anonymous sources, the network reports that the Clinton campaign is pushing for a compromise with Obama and outlining three possible scenarios, including her as his VP pick. The talks are at a "very preliminary'' stage and are described as ``difficult'' by the network.


Linked through Andrew Sullivan in his blog the "Daily Dish" out of the Atlantic.com (Atlantic Monthly Magazine) "Al Giorddano in the Field" has broken the story that Hillary Clinton has asked for the VP slot and Obama has responded by saying, "No".

The Field can now confirm, based on multiple sources, something that both campaigns publicly deny: that Senator Clinton has directly told Senator Obama that she wants to be his vice presidential nominee, and that Senator Obama politely but straightforwardly and irrevocably said “no.” Obama is going to pick his own running mate based on his own criteria and vetting process.

And that is all that anybody needs to know to understand the childish and wounded behavior of Senator Clinton yesterday, grandstanding hypocritically to senior citizens in Florida, telling them they should consider themselves under sniper fire in Bosnia, er, Zimbabwe, aggrandizing herself as some kind of civil rights leader (MLK? or LBJ? She didn’t say this time) and attempting to corner 30 members of the DNC’s Rules & Bylaws Committee that will meet on May 31 to resolve the disputes over whether, and, if so, how, delegates from Michigan and Florida might be seated at the convention in August.

There are more good reasons why an Obama-Clinton ticket can’t, shouldn’t and won’t happen than the dozen offered by my old friend, ad-maker extraordinaire and political wise man Dan Payne so cogently via today’s Boston Globe.

Now that Time magazine has put the Clinton gambit out into the open, we are likely to witness, in the coming weeks, an extremely sad spectacle for Senator Clinton, whose spouse just can’t help himself and obviously is not helping her. Through being so indiscreet about his obsession with getting near the levers of state power again that the first major media confirmation of the Clinton vice presidential aspirations involved a report that he’s the one who wants it most, he has definitively reinforced that the “nightmare ticket” is deservedly off the table, and created a monstrous distraction that impedes Senator Clinton from consolidating all she has built for herself this year in the short term.

So now, when the Clinton surrogates continue to advocate that Obama choose Senator Clinton as veep, everybody will know: It’s Bill, and not Hill, stoking the fire. When New York political insider Mark Green’s Air America sent an email blast this morning to its entire mailing list featuring the milquetoast, boring and Arbitron-ratings neglected Thom Hartmann’s plea - “Obama: Ask Hillary First” (and this Air America subscriber summarily unsubscribed from that list this morning upon receiving that piece of corporate-paid advertising), everybody knows: the ventriloquist behind these Muppets is Bill Clinton.

And it’s not even about the vice presidency. For Bill, it is about wrestling back “the Clinton brand” from his spouse. How’s that for petty? Arianna Huffington wrote a compelling essay last week listing the triumphs of Senator Clinton’s campaign, paving the way for other women in politics, and noting that, “she has redefined and taken over the Clinton brand… she is the Clinton who will now be most relevant to the country’s future.”

Not so fast. “The Clinton problem” today is not: what will the Democratic Party or Barack Obama do about Senator Clinton? It is: what will Senator Clinton do about that loose cannon of a former president?

You shall know the politically inept among us by those that continue to advocate for The Disaster Ticket now that Bill has pushed himself so unnecessarily into the photo, confirming that he is the most compelling reason why an Obama-Clinton ticket will never happen, and you shall know them also even by those who oppose it but who worry, fret and gnash teeth aloud that somehow it could be forced to happen after this latest development.

The nightmare has died. Smile and get over it.

Overall the LA Times is reporting on the long list for VP.

Others mentioned include Govs. Tim Kaine of Virginia, Janet Napolitano of Arizona, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Ted Strickland of Ohio; and Sens. Evan Bayh of Indiana, Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware (who also ran for president), Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Jim Webb of Virginia. Former Sens. Tom Daschle of South Dakota and Sam Nunn of Georgia have also been mentioned, as has retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark.

Obama campaign begins secret search process for VP running mate

"Signs, signs, everywhere a sign", is an old line from the early '70's pop song that best illustrates what is going on in the Democratic Party Presidential nomination process---"time waits for no one" including the Clinton's. Today the AP released a story titled: Dems say Obama begins search for VP mate; Party front runner ask ex-Fannie Mae CEO to start vetting possible picks.

WASHINGTON - Democratic officials say Barack Obama has begun a top-secret search for a running mate.

Democratic officials said Thursday the party's likely nominee has asked former Fannie Mae CEO Jim Johnson to begin vetting potential vice presidential picks. Johnson did the same job for Democratic nominees John Kerry in 2004 and Walter Mondale in 1984.

The Democratic officials spoke on a condition of anonymity about a process that the campaign wants to keep quiet.

Vice presidential searches are usually closely held secrets, but Obama campaign officials say the effort is being handled by a particularly tight circle of advisers.

The campaign also does not want to discuss the effort because they are still engaged in a primary campaign against Hillary Rodham Clinton.

First level of clinching is in Obama wins Oregon, gains 45 delegates overall

Yes Obama lost another Appalachian State---badly, but then had another big night night outside the old hill's region by winning Oregon, 59%-41%. This essentially put Obama over the top on pledged delegates majority with 1646 (Obama has 10 Edward's delegates pledged to him now bringing that total to 1656). Clinton is of course now rejecting the delegate math for it does not serve her aims and is now making her case on the illegitimate popular vote---except that we don't elect Presidents that way. Furthermore the problem with Hillary's campaign math even in the popular vote is that it is wrong for Obama still leads in the popular vote as well.

• Obama 16,995, 836
• Clinton 16, 387, 761 (This includes all states and caucuses minus FL or MI, 557, 075 to Obama)

• Obama w/FL's vote: 17, 572, 050
• Clinton w/FL vote: 17, 258, 747 (Difference 313, 303 to Obama)

• Obama w/FL & MI: 17, 810, 218 (using uncommitted votes)
• Clinton w/FL & MI: 17, 587, 076 (Difference of 223, 142* to Obama)

Now if one does not count the uncommitted votes as Obama votes than Clinton does carry a 15,076 advantage by counting all her votes in the unsanctioned MI & FL beauty contests, BUT, those contests don't count and furthermore popular votes are meaningless for the party nominates its presidential candidates through delegates.

Okay let us talk delegates, Obama now has the following:

• 1656.5 pledged delegates
• 305.5 superdelegates (two committed today, MS DemParty Chairman Wayne Dowdy (DNC-MS) and Rep. Joe Courtney (D-CT.)
  
• 1962 (Hard count total and 63 short of the 2025 and clinching nomination without MI & FL.)

• 1968 (Pelosi Pledged Club on record endorsing the winner of the pledged delegates)
• 2008 (Predicted future pledged delegates from three remaining contests; MT, SD, PR)
  
• 2032 (Predicted Add-On superdelegates selected in states advantaged to Obama)

IF MI is included: 2063(A) 2095(B) or 2104 (C) needed

• 2069 Plan A (1/2 vote for pledged delegates 50/50 split, 5 superdelegates full vote).
• 2101 Plan B (full vote for pledged delegates 50/50 split, 5 superdelegates full vote).
  
• 2096 Plan C (full vote pledged awarded 59 (69 to HRC) 5 superdelegates*---7 short

IF FL is included: Only plan, 1/2 vote for pledged delegates and full vote for superdelegates

• 2071.5 (Plan A 1/2 vote recorded for primary results plus superdelegates)

IF FL & MI are included:

• 2110 (2101 for Plan A MI and FL to nominate)
• 2140 (2131.5 for Plan B MI and FL to nominate)
• 2137 (2142 for Plan C Mi and FL to nominate)* right now 5 short
  

Obama picks up three more supers and Green Papers adjust pledged delegate count

The Obama campaign gained more delegates as the Green Papers, considered the best source on pledged delegates now has Obama with 1612.5 pledged delegates with the adjustments of Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina and other states as they work through state conventions. Also Obama gained four more superdelegates, two late last night from Alaska; Black Johnson (DNC-AK) and Cindy Spanyers (DNC-AK), while this morning the campaign announced endorsements of Madeleine Bordallo (DNC-GU) and Scott Brennan (DNC-IA). This brings the Obama list up to 304.5 and the hard count now 1917, or 108 delegates short of securing the nomination.

Now let us discuss tonight's expected results from Oregon and Kentucky. Oregon is all but already voted where the last polls showed that over 75% intended voters have already cast their ballots in the all mail-in voting state. Two of the three most recent national polls have Obama with a 13 or 19 point leads, while a local paper has it a 20-point lead. One poll had the race at a 5-point Obama win. In Kentucky, like all the other Appalachia based states this support is in reverse where Clinton is again enjoying a 2-1 margin. Look for Clinton to gain a 3-5 delegate pickup but with a current 198 delegate lead losing 4 delegates to the net while picking up 50 or so moving him closer to 2025. It is possible by tomorrow morning Obama will actually have a net gain with the Pelosi Pledged Club (6) superdelegates bring him to 1976, (only 49 short of the required 2025).

Looking beyond today's primaries it is expected that Obama will pick up an additional 41 pledged delegates in South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico. It is also being projected that Obama has another 24 expected Add-On's to be selected through the ongoing state conventions and state committee meetings throughout America. Look for the superdelegates to amass the next week or so and allow the DNC Rules Committee to find a compromise that does not effect the percentage to any degree but seat MI & FL delegations while still disciplining them.

CO Congressional District 5 partial results in

Last night I learned and was asked to keep this quiet until now but the Obama campaign in El Paso County did its job regardless of all the obstacles, delays, long lines, computer snafu's, threat of towing, Sun, wind, and whatever....

Those elected as National Delegates: Mike Maday, Ben Tabor (the 18 year old) and Lynn Johnson. Elected as an alternate was Jason DeGroot (also an under 35 year old youth). Obama garnished 310 to 144 votes from the floor. (Originally Obama had registered an even greater percentage but because of the delay and threat of towing where delegates and alternates left the percentage fell back to 68.28% to 31.71%. Going in the Obama campaign had a 69% advantage.)I am still trying to get the precise seating of the number of alternates so I can personally thank them for enduring such an ordeal.

Tomorrow expect the results of the State Convention for volunteers are working through the day up in Denver to count those ballots. Also for CD5, Jennifer Trujillo-Sanchez won the Presidential Elector position.

Post CO Convention weekend recap and delegate math

Today's delegate tally is building where Obama has now eclipsed 300, (300.5) with the endorsements of Sen. Robert Bryd (D-WV), Larry Gates (DNC-KS), and Dwight Pelz (DNC-WA). Over the weekend there was plenty of activity with the Add-On's, where yesterday Obama picked up two from CA, William Hays (Add-On-CA) and Lou Paulsen (Add-on-CA), while Clinton also picked up three Add-On's from the Left Coast. Saturday Obama had a clean sweep of three pickups; Greg Pecoraro (DNC-MD) and two Add-On's, Mark Parkinson (Add-On-KS) and of course Federico Pena (Add-On-CO). Over the weekend it was 5-3 and today now today that is 8-3 culminating to a count of 300.5 to 276.5 (25 superdelegate lead).

Now Clinton is losing a bit of her pledged delegates base as two defected last week; MD at-large delegate Jack Johnson (not the early 20th century boxing champ), joining Washington DC Councilman at-large delegate Jack Evans. The Obama campaign has issued a statement not recognizing the defection but this could start a pattern. In Nevada at their State Convention Obama gathered an additional at-large delegate than expected by also reducing Clinton's pledged delegates. My count is 1605 to 1437 pledged where hard count now is 1905 to 1713.5, and getting close to the 200 difference. There are 24 Add-On's expected to come Obama's way along with 6 more superdelegates known as the Pelosi Club following tomorrow when Obama clinches the pledged delegate contest. This is 30 more delegates.

Tomorrow Obama is also expected to garnish 55 or more pledged delegates building his lead to 1660 and 1960 overall. If you then project that Obama gains those additional 24 Add-On's and Pelosi Clubm members he will be at 1990 and just 35 short. Obama is then expected to win 19 more delegates from Montana and South Dakota, leaving him just 16 less than 2025 where upon he is expected to win at least 20 in Puerto Rico. This is why when I talked with a senior Obama staffer about the math on Friday night that he said the matter was clinched except for managing the message and process.

There is still no word at this late moment out of Denver regarding CD5 or the State Convention.

For many of you, including my family, this past convention weekend was an exercise in extreme patience against adjunct frustration. My daughter who is infinitely calmer and more succinct than me said afterward; "...okay, even if there is huge problems with thos credentials didn't they regularly come to the podium and simply inform people 15 minutes."

What all this secrecy does is only invite more frustration and ultimately mistrust. Of course I come from another world of politics altogether, meaning Illinois and when there ever is a significant delay or misplaced voting documents, more often than not it is an attempt at a political gain. Always ask yourself who is or wants to gain? Ironically we also hailed from Wisconsin, where they run elections in party and general voting clean and efficiently. they even have day of election registration.

Friday afternoon and evening at CD-5's convention held the Double Tree Inn was none other than standing and sore disaster. The line to the credentials room literally ran through the entire hotel and out the door by 2:00 PM. Registration originally scheduled to start at 1:00 PM did not actually commence until sometime after 1:30 PM, (I was told 1:45 PM). The reason for this delay I learned later from a source inside the room was that the actual credentials had not arrived till until then. Inexcusable---period. The Democratic Party organizers must have flunked basic math when they decided to try to register three Congressional Districts Convention Delegates and alternates (plus their corresponding Assemblies) where it probably numbered in excess of 3000 individuals. That did not include another 1000 or so other individuals who came by for early registration for the following State Convention. Whomever thought this might take a few hours, I got this ----indefensible. Minimally this registration should have started no later than 9 AM and then each CD/Assembly should have been segregated in a way that made things more manageable. But whomever made the decisions they expressed either ignorance or little empathy for their fellow Democrats who had to wait in line again, for over three hours. But that was not the start of it.

Because their computers were not networked and because many registers were not trained and thrust into the credentials disorganized data management, mistakes caused continuing problems---namely reconciling the alternates and delegates. "WTF! " said many alternates, who were subjected to sitting outside in the blazing Sun on the hotel's courtyard and become windblown for hours without any information, meanwhile the delegates sat in a stuffy-hot ball room also without information as to when voting would finally start. Close to two hours later voting took place, this of course after many delegates and alternates had gone home in disgust. There were also threats of cars being towed from the Target parking lot communicated by the hotel as things broke down. Not one Democrat official went over to talk to the Target Store Manager who would have facilitated the parking lot if asked. No, our leaders were not forward thinking in this case and evidentially lacked the simple courtesy to ask Target for some help and manage this self-made dynamic and changing situation of basic logistics. As for the credentials thing they could have let the delegates vote and wait to properly reconciled alternate list but no, they chose to do it in way that disenfranchised democracy. Unforgivable.

Saturday was a little better in the morning. The line moved where my family was volunteering with the Transportation Committee that provided shuttle buses from official hotel clusters and park 'n rides and that worked! Fortunately we planned on using the Tejon Park 'n Ride which became the emergency parking lot when the World Arena lot was filled up by 9 AM. Again who did the math? There were 6000 eventual visitors, (they supposedly planned for 10,000) and there were only 2500 parking spaces. Even if you generously say a car for two persons, (bad average), that means you are 500 short. In reality you need a parking place for 60% of the visitors and that is 1100 spaces short. Now that is essentially what turned out to be with the ridership from the hotels and park 'n rides. What if another 1000 or more showed up? Lucky my wife came up the park 'n ride idea and incorporating it into a shuttle run--kudos Sue!

Now the convention---again it was credentials. But this gets more sublime where two strange things happened. Somehow, somewhere, someplace El Paso lost or never had the replacement delegate credentials for seating alternates. Let me say whomever was in charge of the delegate credentials who were not able to mail them on time making El Paso County the only county that could not, compounded the troubles for Friday's registration also screwed up on Saturday.

Sorry, this credentials management goes all the way back to the caucus and has been one mess up after another. Growing pains some say, maybe once, but not thrice. Volunteer some others say, maybe once, maybe twice....but again....sorry I am not buying it. For other CD's and counties got it done well. Comparing notes Ft. Collins did it, Boulder did it and even Denver did it better.

Now this, this total disaster of handling the credentials from the CD and State. Their needs to be changes, wholesale changes after this November in our County Party leadership---period. This is not Clinton versus Obama, it is competence and fairness versus the old power. This local party will not grow, nor will they elect people in any significance until this is done. A former County Chairman told me personally he tells all aspiring local candidates not to depend the local party for anything but a good song and dance. And this is your result, the one county that could not mail your credentials. The only county party that lost those credentials. The county with the most frustration, the sorest feet, and the most excuses.

Convention Weekend in CO, recapping the march to the nomination

This weekend Colorado Democrats congregate in Colorado Springs of all places, considered by those who only know surface knowledge the home of the deep red Republicans---almost. This town is changing rather rapidly and I could see it being competitively balanced in less than 4 years. Friday three Congressional Districts, (3, 4, & 5) meet at the DoubleTree Inn to elect national delegates from each of their districts to the national convention. To date CD's 1,2, 6 & 7 have held to form and have voted in national delegates according to the projections. I do not know how CD 3 & 4 are shaping up but I know about CD5 for that is mine.

We are expecting 490 delegates plus alternates to converge at the hotel before 4PM and convene the convention. We are expecting 330 plus Obama pledged delegates and seated alternates to vote from CD5 Counties, El Paso (271), Fremont (19), Chaffee (17), Teller (13), Park (7), Lake (6) for three Obama pledged delegates (and the one alternate) to the one lone Clinton. To maintain that 3-1 margin Obama delegates have a 43 delegate cushion. To gain the one Clinton delegate for Obama, we need to gain 38 delegates. How this happens is if delegates don't show and one side or the other are able to seat their alternates in their stead.

I have personally endorsed the following: Barbara Thummapally, Jason DeGroot and myself on Friday and Mike Maday on Saturday. Two reasons, Barbara and Jason have been some of the top volunteers not just in El Paso County but statewide, I know them and know they will vote for Obama. But also because they are the only ones whom I know personally told me they were running, even though 60 plus others are rumored to be running. Mike I was told was endorsed and promoted by th e campaign on Saturday and I think he should gain that recognition of being a statewide at-large delegate, it would really enhance his growing political career.

Saturday will be a mess. El Paso County Democrats continued in their inability to perform basic data management in key situations. Now we are the only county not to have been able to send Saturday credentials to delegates and alternates requiring people without notification other than relying on the personal effort of campaign volunteers to tell them to pick them up in person. Ridiculous and in my experience, curiously suspect and if not wholly unacceptable. This is a pattern from the same individuals dating back years not just this year and it either shows a lacking. I just cannot understand how come there was more than one list or why the data was not originally entered into VAN. Heck I once owned and operated a clinical trials data management company where data had to be 100% correct, no excuses, This was data that was keyed from doctors handwriting but we got it right otherwise we didn't get paid.....The problem is this situation has now left it up to good regular event volunteers where they have to navigate it out in a tight time constraints, all issues related to a potential logjam of credentials problems and nervous people. So....what is the bottom line, get early and be armed with patience. Print out the Peak Dem's delegates and alternates page with an ID and bring your voters card if you can find it.

Now yesterday Dee, a great Democrat and thankfully a volunteer said why I didn't write this blog yesterday. See Above! Now yesterday, Edwards and the Obama campaign trumped the Clinton's campaign by taking the wind out of their sails. If any of you have ever sailed in races, (I miss Lake Michigan and my cousin's yacht) , there is a move in sailing to take the wind from another's sail. This is what Edward's surprise announcement did on the PR circuit. But more importantly it is bringing in cache of delegates once pledged to Edwards. WaPo is reporting that 6 of 8 from delegates in South Carolina are committing to Obama. New Hampshire already has 1 of the four pledged Edwards delegates and in Iowa there are six remaining to delegates to be had.

As for superdelegates, when Edwards dropped out on Jan. 30, he had endorsements from 28 -- 14 lawmakers and 14 DNC Members. As of yesterday afternoon, nine of the House members backing Edwards had switched to Obama, leaving just four uncommitted pro-Edwards lawmakers and one who said he would vote for Clinton. Seven of Edwards's DNC superdelegates have shifted to Obama; two have switched to Clinton. Five remain uncommitted. That leaves a total of 18 Edwards convention votes for both campaigns to lobby.

And then there is the superdelegate development outside of Edwards. Since early Wednesday Obama has picked up eight more superdeletates to Clinton's one bring him to 292.5. Clinton got a TN Add-On, Vicky Harwell (Add-TN), bringing her total to 271.5 (now 21 behind Obama). Obama Wednesday picked up three DNC members; Mike Morgan (DNC-OK), Lena Taylor (DNC-WI), and Robert Fracano (DNC-MI). Yesterday he added three more Representatives; namely the powerful Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), his other powerful cohort, Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), both House Committee Chairs, Rep Jim McDermott (D-WA), and finally Larry Cohen (DNC-DC). And finally this morning Obama gathered another endorsement from the House with the commitment of Pete Stark (D-CA).

This is getting close to the unofficial clinching point where Clinton will become inconsequential as adding supers and pledged delegates will make the math virtually impossible. When I add all the projections from upcoming contests, add-on's, Edwards delegates where it appears Obama is within 6 of unofficially clinching the nomination. The national news is not reporting this but watch when it materializes.

Update: Despite a big loss in WV, Obama gained 4 more superdelegates late last night and this morning

Despite the big loss in West Virginia in Appalachia, which I will address later, it is really not white working class but actually Appalachia voters, Obama has been endorsed by four superdelegates bringing him to 285.5 in total to Clinton's 270.5. The individuals are: Rep. Peter Visclosky (D-IN), and three more DNC members, Awais Khalill (DNC-WI), Lauren Wolfe (DNC-MI) and Christine Marquis (DNC-WA). Now Obama has an eight person lead in the House of Representatives, 6 person lead in the Senate, 3 person lead with Governors, 7 person lead with Add-On's and now is only 6 behind in the DNC members, and 3 behind in Distinguished Party Leaders.

Update: Obama received an Add-On superdelegate today as well, Vicky Harwell (Add-On-TN), and the tally for West Virginia is in, Clinton 20, Obama 8 pledged delegates. My count is that Obama now holds 286.5 superdelegates and 1600 pledged delegates (1886.5), projected to gain 49 pledged delegates next Tuesday in Oregon and Kentucky, which will give him the majority of pledged delegates and on record 6 more superdelegates, moving his total to 1942.5, not counting the Add-On's earned over the weekend and other unannounced superdelegates. That would leave a hard count at 82.5. Therefore projecting out Obama is expected to gather another 41 delegates from the remaining contests and the number reduces by half, where then he expected to get 27 more Add-On's and the number is reduced to 14. Count those superdelegates and each one brings this closer to the eventual lock.

Last night was disappointing but some astute political analysts are now figuring out this aberration of Obama's electorate and it is simply Appalachia. Here is a post from Talking Points Memo:

If the exit polls (and the pre-election polls) are accurate, Hillary Clinton is set to win West Virginia by roughly a 2 to 1 margin over Barack Obama. Oregon, next Tuesday, favors Obama. But Kentucky, which votes the same day, seems likely to yield a similar margin for Sen. Clinton. So what is it about these two states that makes them so favorable to Hillary Clinton?

There's been a lot of talk in this campaign about Barack Obama's problem with working class white voters or rural voters. But these claims are both inaccurate because they are incomplete. You can look at states like Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and other states and see the different numbers and they are all explained by one basic fact. Obama's problem isn't with white working class voters or rural voters. It's Appalachia. That explains why Obama had a difficult time in Ohio and Pennsylvania and why he's getting crushed in West Virginia and Kentucky.

If it were just a matter of rural voters or the white working class, the pattern would show up in other regions. But by and large it does not.

In so many words, Pennsylvania and Ohio have big chunks of Appalachia within their borders. But those regions are heavily offset by non-Appalachian sections that are cultural and demographically distinct. West Virginia is 100% Appalachian. If you look at southeastern Ohio or the middle chunk of Pennsylvania, Obama did about the same as he's doing tonight in West Virginia.

Below is a map of the Appalachian counties stretching from New York down into Mississippi. Below that is a map of counties that Hillary Clinton has won by more than 65%. As you can see match up quite closely -- the grey gaps are Kentucky and West Virginia which hadn't voted yet.

So what is it about this region?

Let me offer a series of overlapping explanations. First, some basic demographics. It's widely accepted that Hillary Clinton does better with older voters, less educated voters and white voters. These demographics perfectly match West Virginia -- and, more loosely, the entire Appalachian region. A few key points from tonight's exit polls demonstrate the point: 4 out of 10 voters were over 60 years of age. 7 out of 10 lacked a college degree -- the highest proportion of any electorate in the country. And 95% of the electorate was white.

Basically you have a state that is made up almost exclusively of Clinton's voters. But there's a deeper historical explanation that we have to apply as well -- one nicely illustrated by the origins of West Virginia itself.

During the 18th and 19th centuries, in the middle Atlantic and particularly in the Southern states, there was a long-standing cleavage between the coastal and 'piedmont' regions on the one hand and the upcountry areas to the west on the other. It's really the coastal lowlands and the Appalachian districts. On the other side of the Appalachian mountain range the pattern is flipped, with the Appalachians in the east and the lowlands in the west.

These regions were settled disproportionately by Scots-Irish immigrants who pushed into the hill country to the west in part because that's where the affordable land was but also because they wanted to get away from the more stratified and inegalitarian society of the east which was built by English settlers and their African slaves. Crucially, slavery never really took root in these areas. And this is why during the Civil War, Unionism (as in support for the federal union and opposition to the treason of secession) ran strong through the Appalachian upcountry, even into Deep South states like Alabama and Mississippi.

As I alluded to earlier, this was the origin of West Virginia, which was originally the westernmost part of Virginia. The anti-slavery, anti-slaveholding upcountry seceded from Virginia to remain in the Union after Virginia seceded from the Union. Each of these regions was fiercely anti-Slavery. And most ended up raising regiments that fought in the Union Army. But they were as anti-slave as they were anti-slavery, both of which they viewed as the lynchpins of the aristocratic and inegalitarian society they loathed. It was a society that was both more violent and more self-reliant.

This is history. But it shapes the region. It's overwhelmingly white, economically underdeveloped (another legacy of the pre-civil war pattern) and arguably because of that underdevelopment has very low education rates and disproportionately old populations.

For all these reasons, if you're familiar with the history, it's really no surprise that Barack Obama would have a very hard time running in this region.

--Josh Marshall

And the score now is Obama 27-1 (net) and 283 to 270.5

Obama's march to Denver, (like Sherman's march to the sea) is becoming unstoppable to the nomination as today he has received 4 more superdelegate commitments. This brings the total since NC-IN primary day to 27 to 1 and since Super Tuesday in February 123 to 10.5. This morning fmr CO Governor Ray Romer (DNC-CO), along with Rep. Tom Donnelly (D-IN) , Mayor Ray Nagin (Add-On-LA) and Anita Bonds (DNC-DC) joined 279 other Democratic superdelegates to endorse Obama. This brings Obama's totals to 1875 hard count delegates.

I expect Obama to win 99 pledged delegates in the next contests leaving him him 49 short of the nomination, where by I expect him to gather 28 Add-On's bring him to 21. Put in the Pelosi Pledge of 6 now (as Romer was one of those) and this brings us to 15 superdelegates and this will be over.

Now something important. We in Colorado can actually win 2 more delegates for Obama. I have projected Obama to win 7 at large and 4 PlEO's at the State Convention, but if Obama can hold onto a 1% difference in the at large seating and 2% for the PLEO he can win 13 delegates and reduce that number by two. How that is to be done is for all delegates and alternates to be there this Saturday, period.

Since last I wrote, Obama 5, Clinton Zero

In fact, it is now Obama 279 to Clinton 270.5 as Obama picked up 5 superdelegates since Saturday. Sunday, Crystal Strait (DNC-CA) endorsed Obama and today he added four more; Sen. Daniel Akaka (D-HI) and Rep. Tom Allen (D-ME) plus, Dolly Strazer (DNC-HI) and Idaho's Democratic State Chairman, R. Keith Roark (DNC-ID).

If you read this blog here is how informed you are: Right now Obama has 1594 pledged delegates and 279 superdelegates coming to 1873 delegates or 152 short of 2025. One can ably project that Obama will gather an additional 28 Add-On superdelegates because of their elective or selection process that is representative in various remaining state conventions or central committee meetings--add up to 1901, or 124 short of the nomination. There are 6 remaining pledged delegate contests remaining, WV, OR, KY, MT, SD and PR with 204 delegates in play. Project at this moment that Clinton prevails 104 to 100, leaving 24 delegates short. But like the Oxi-clean commercial I am not done yet for there is the Pelosi Pledge of 7 superdelegates who state they will endorse the winner of the pledged delegate contest. This lowers the number down to 15...fifteen delegates.

Thus following Oregon if Obama has a week period as we have seen where he has picked 20 superdelegates the acclimation will be that the race is over.

Those rumored superdelegates are arriving.

Yesterday, five more superdelegates were gathered by the Obama campaign giving him the unquestionable lead by almost all news sources. Two were the Add-On's I have mentioned, Kristi Cumming (Add-On-UT) and Dave Regan (Add-On-OH) while Clinton picked up Arthur Powell (Add-On-MA) joining a late endorsement for Clinton late Friday, Rep. Ciro Rodriquez (D-TX). Obama's other endorsements were Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-AZ), and a pair from the Virgin Islands, Carol Burke (DNC-VI) and Kevin Rodriquez (DNC-VI) who switched from Clinton to Obama bringing Clinton a net zero for Saturday.

All told the hard count is now 274 for Obama and 270.5 for Clinton, and reducing the magic number greatly. Add in the Pelosi Pledged (7) to the winner of the pledged delegates contests, (281) plus the announced Montana superdelegate and Obama is actually a t 282. The two Add-On's continue to go according to the projections where Obama now has 28 probably to earn, this brings the total to 310 without any other superdelegate endorsements.

Nine, that is 9superdelegates endorsed today for Obama

Nine. That is almost a double-digit, nine superdelegates endorsed Obama ironically the day after Hillary Clinton said she had all the "hard-working white people". When I heard the quote I thought Hillary was running for mayor of Rock City in the movie "Blazing Saddles". This is fifteen superdelegate endorsements to a net ONE for Clinton.

Here is the lineup for all to see.

• Rep. Donald Payne (D-NJ)
• Rep. DeFazio (D-OR)
  
• Rep. Mazie Hirono (D-HI)
• John Gage (DNC-MD)
• Edward Espanoza (DNC-CA)
  
• Vernon Wadkins (DNC-CA)
• Wilbur Lee Jeffocoat (DNC-SC)
• Joe Johnson (DNC-VA)
  
• Lauree Weahkee (Add-On NM)

My count is even more stunning. 1595 pledged delegates + 269 superdelegates + projected 30 Add-On superdelegates + 7 Pelosi Pledged delegates to the winner of the pledged delegates = 2010 or 15 short of the nomination.

"I told it was not over until it is over". The delegate watch

Okay, the rumored close or suspension of the Clinton campaign is like another Terminator Movie, let us call it Hillinator IX. After each destruction she re-morph's like a alien assassin robot and keeps charging. But the number never lie, since Tuesday night Obama picked up 7 superdelegates to net zero for Clinton. He is now at 260 superdelegates (to Clinton's 269.5) and now under the ten behind. I can remember when he was almost 75, and now Obama is within 10.

Here is the count; Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) and former NFL QB kept his western North Carolina pledge where Clinton carried his district last Tuesday and that is it. Now the switch, (this is an area you should watch), Jennifer McClellan (DNC-VA), went from Clinton to Obama, so Hillary is a net zero. Obama gathered Jerry Meek (DNC-NC), Inola Henry (DNC-CA), Dan Gerber (Add-On-FL), Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC), and Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA). Actually one can say that Obama is but one short in that there is the Pelosi Pledge 7 (pledged to vote for the winner of the pledged delegate winner), and Montana's Margaret Campbell who had to retract her endorsement due to party rules.. This means one can bank on 268 superdelegates.

This will continue, look for superdelegates to keep coming in each day when until the headline is run that Obama overtakes Clinton on superdelegates. The next order of battle is the Michigan and Florida delegations. I knew once Obama clinched or got close that genuine offers to seat and appease these problem states would emerge. Essentially the deal in Michigan is to have the delegation sit with Clinton getting 69 delegates and Obama 59. This is a net loss to the Clinton camp of 4 but it brings them and the controversy to the end. In Florida the idea is to seat the delegates with 1/2 votes.

Back to reality, what is the projected delegate count

It appears from the heavy duty delegate watchers I have come to know that Obama secured 64 pledged delegates (and probably will emerge with 66 when the final accounting is done) from North Carolina and 34 pledged delegates from Indiana for a total of an even 100! The Clinton campaign will probably emerge with 38 pledged delegates from Indiana and 46 secured (and probably 49) pledged delegates from North Carolina.

This equates a gain of 100 to 87 (net 13) plus a overlooked superdelegate endorsement from North Carolina, Jeanette Council (DNC-NC). Gaining 14 delegates at this juncture brings down the magic number where Obama is now coming in reach of securing the absolute majority of pledged delegates by Oregon. Even if WV and KY go big Clinton's way with little or no campaigning, Obama will gain 30 pledged delegates by Oregon and then some. Axelrod, whose prediction is uncanny but somewhat unraveling, (he though NC would be closer and Obama would win IN, but his delegate math was almost dead on). Through the next three contests Obama should gather a minimum of 50 of the next 128 delegates in play. But that is not where the contest main battleground will be played out. Watch for a parade of superdelegates to come out over the next five or six days, Obama managing that each will get their day in the news sunlight but I suspect that by next Tuesday's WV contest Obama will be firmly in the lead.