Was last week the high water mark for Hillary's campaign?

Yesterday the Guam caucus, run under primary rules ended with a 7 vote win (out of 4000 votes, 2,264 to 2,257) for Obama where both split 8 half-vote delegates (or 2 full vote each). Obama also picked up the one declared superdelegate (Jaime Paulino) and the officially undeclared chair, Pilar Lujan, out polling the Clinton slate by 416 votes. Lujan is on record stating he will vote for the winner of the popular vote in Guam, so he goes into the Pelosi Pledge Club category bring my count to seven now.

All told, Obama also gathered Brian Colon, (DNC-NM), who is that state's Party Chair, plus Add-On's from Maryland, Gov. Parris Glenndenning, (D-MD), while their Lt. Governor went for Clinton, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D-MD) and daughter of the late Robert Kennedy. In South Carolina the State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum (D-SC), was elected in their state convention. Finally Clinton picked up a superdelegate from Texas, Robert Martinez (DNC-TX) rounding out the weekend's cache gatherings. In Louisiana, Mayor Ray Nagin (D) from New Orleans was elected and remains uncommitted seeking a formal political play to get a commitment for New Orleans relief. Also on Monday the official Daley slate in Illinois will be installed for three to Obama in Add-On's, dropping that path to 54. Since Pennsylvania Obama leads in gathering endorsements 17-12, (+5), since March 4th Obama 41-21 and since February 5th it is Obama 81-14 (showing that Clinton has lost 7 superdelegates since then).

MSNBC has the count: 272-254, Politico.com: 267-252 and Democratic Convention Watch has the hard count: 269-248. My count is Clinton 268-252 (with the 3 IL Add-On's and not the Pelosi Pledged Club of 7), where one can say that Obama actually has 259 in his pocket. Looking at the math, Obama is expected to clear 33 more Add-On's from the majorities earned from previous caucus/convention contests (to Clinton's 22), providing a 292 total to Clinton's 290 or a virtual tie at that point. Extending this math where Obama I am now projected him to receive 205 pledged delegates from the remaining races to Clinton's 200, this places Obama over 2000 delegates pledged and endorsed, (2001 to date) to Clinton needing 198. Here is where the math becomes almost inevitable for Clinton is that she would have to gather 198 of the remaining 226 remaining superdelegates. Thus, and that is a big thus, with each superdelegate endorsement here on out increases enormity of Clinton's challenge. The only other delegate cache is the mere 9 pledged delegates that is held by Edwards.

Looking forward to Tuesday the polls are looking favorable as Zogby and Rasmussen hold that Obama has a 9 point lead with 8% and 11% recorded as undecideds. If things hold as Axelrod stated I think Obama will win between 6-9% and win a minimum 61 pledged delegates to 54 to Clinton. A 9 point win will actually move the delegate count to 63-52 and possibly unearth those rumored 6 superdelegates in NC to Obama. In Indiana the race is far closer, Zogby again has Obama up 2 points 43-41, while Rasmussen has Clinton up 5 points 46-41 but with 11% undecided. A close loss to Obama will not change the perception that Clinton feeds but it will probably mean a 36 delegate split. Axelrod felt Obama would win by 3 points and win 39-33 delegates.