Obama picks up three more supers and Green Papers adjust pledged delegate count

The Obama campaign gained more delegates as the Green Papers, considered the best source on pledged delegates now has Obama with 1612.5 pledged delegates with the adjustments of Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina and other states as they work through state conventions. Also Obama gained four more superdelegates, two late last night from Alaska; Black Johnson (DNC-AK) and Cindy Spanyers (DNC-AK), while this morning the campaign announced endorsements of Madeleine Bordallo (DNC-GU) and Scott Brennan (DNC-IA). This brings the Obama list up to 304.5 and the hard count now 1917, or 108 delegates short of securing the nomination.

Now let us discuss tonight's expected results from Oregon and Kentucky. Oregon is all but already voted where the last polls showed that over 75% intended voters have already cast their ballots in the all mail-in voting state. Two of the three most recent national polls have Obama with a 13 or 19 point leads, while a local paper has it a 20-point lead. One poll had the race at a 5-point Obama win. In Kentucky, like all the other Appalachia based states this support is in reverse where Clinton is again enjoying a 2-1 margin. Look for Clinton to gain a 3-5 delegate pickup but with a current 198 delegate lead losing 4 delegates to the net while picking up 50 or so moving him closer to 2025. It is possible by tomorrow morning Obama will actually have a net gain with the Pelosi Pledged Club (6) superdelegates bring him to 1976, (only 49 short of the required 2025).

Looking beyond today's primaries it is expected that Obama will pick up an additional 41 pledged delegates in South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico. It is also being projected that Obama has another 24 expected Add-On's to be selected through the ongoing state conventions and state committee meetings throughout America. Look for the superdelegates to amass the next week or so and allow the DNC Rules Committee to find a compromise that does not effect the percentage to any degree but seat MI & FL delegations while still disciplining them.