Convention Weekend in CO, recapping the march to the nomination

This weekend Colorado Democrats congregate in Colorado Springs of all places, considered by those who only know surface knowledge the home of the deep red Republicans---almost. This town is changing rather rapidly and I could see it being competitively balanced in less than 4 years. Friday three Congressional Districts, (3, 4, & 5) meet at the DoubleTree Inn to elect national delegates from each of their districts to the national convention. To date CD's 1,2, 6 & 7 have held to form and have voted in national delegates according to the projections. I do not know how CD 3 & 4 are shaping up but I know about CD5 for that is mine.

We are expecting 490 delegates plus alternates to converge at the hotel before 4PM and convene the convention. We are expecting 330 plus Obama pledged delegates and seated alternates to vote from CD5 Counties, El Paso (271), Fremont (19), Chaffee (17), Teller (13), Park (7), Lake (6) for three Obama pledged delegates (and the one alternate) to the one lone Clinton. To maintain that 3-1 margin Obama delegates have a 43 delegate cushion. To gain the one Clinton delegate for Obama, we need to gain 38 delegates. How this happens is if delegates don't show and one side or the other are able to seat their alternates in their stead.

I have personally endorsed the following: Barbara Thummapally, Jason DeGroot and myself on Friday and Mike Maday on Saturday. Two reasons, Barbara and Jason have been some of the top volunteers not just in El Paso County but statewide, I know them and know they will vote for Obama. But also because they are the only ones whom I know personally told me they were running, even though 60 plus others are rumored to be running. Mike I was told was endorsed and promoted by th e campaign on Saturday and I think he should gain that recognition of being a statewide at-large delegate, it would really enhance his growing political career.

Saturday will be a mess. El Paso County Democrats continued in their inability to perform basic data management in key situations. Now we are the only county not to have been able to send Saturday credentials to delegates and alternates requiring people without notification other than relying on the personal effort of campaign volunteers to tell them to pick them up in person. Ridiculous and in my experience, curiously suspect and if not wholly unacceptable. This is a pattern from the same individuals dating back years not just this year and it either shows a lacking. I just cannot understand how come there was more than one list or why the data was not originally entered into VAN. Heck I once owned and operated a clinical trials data management company where data had to be 100% correct, no excuses, This was data that was keyed from doctors handwriting but we got it right otherwise we didn't get paid.....The problem is this situation has now left it up to good regular event volunteers where they have to navigate it out in a tight time constraints, all issues related to a potential logjam of credentials problems and nervous people. So....what is the bottom line, get early and be armed with patience. Print out the Peak Dem's delegates and alternates page with an ID and bring your voters card if you can find it.

Now yesterday Dee, a great Democrat and thankfully a volunteer said why I didn't write this blog yesterday. See Above! Now yesterday, Edwards and the Obama campaign trumped the Clinton's campaign by taking the wind out of their sails. If any of you have ever sailed in races, (I miss Lake Michigan and my cousin's yacht) , there is a move in sailing to take the wind from another's sail. This is what Edward's surprise announcement did on the PR circuit. But more importantly it is bringing in cache of delegates once pledged to Edwards. WaPo is reporting that 6 of 8 from delegates in South Carolina are committing to Obama. New Hampshire already has 1 of the four pledged Edwards delegates and in Iowa there are six remaining to delegates to be had.

As for superdelegates, when Edwards dropped out on Jan. 30, he had endorsements from 28 -- 14 lawmakers and 14 DNC Members. As of yesterday afternoon, nine of the House members backing Edwards had switched to Obama, leaving just four uncommitted pro-Edwards lawmakers and one who said he would vote for Clinton. Seven of Edwards's DNC superdelegates have shifted to Obama; two have switched to Clinton. Five remain uncommitted. That leaves a total of 18 Edwards convention votes for both campaigns to lobby.

And then there is the superdelegate development outside of Edwards. Since early Wednesday Obama has picked up eight more superdeletates to Clinton's one bring him to 292.5. Clinton got a TN Add-On, Vicky Harwell (Add-TN), bringing her total to 271.5 (now 21 behind Obama). Obama Wednesday picked up three DNC members; Mike Morgan (DNC-OK), Lena Taylor (DNC-WI), and Robert Fracano (DNC-MI). Yesterday he added three more Representatives; namely the powerful Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), his other powerful cohort, Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), both House Committee Chairs, Rep Jim McDermott (D-WA), and finally Larry Cohen (DNC-DC). And finally this morning Obama gathered another endorsement from the House with the commitment of Pete Stark (D-CA).

This is getting close to the unofficial clinching point where Clinton will become inconsequential as adding supers and pledged delegates will make the math virtually impossible. When I add all the projections from upcoming contests, add-on's, Edwards delegates where it appears Obama is within 6 of unofficially clinching the nomination. The national news is not reporting this but watch when it materializes.