So much to inform you all, on this HISTORICAL DAY

Today the Obama campaign formerly announced the pick up of the three expected Illinois Add-On's, Mayor Richard Daley (D-IL), Barbara Flynn Currie (D-IL) and Todd Stoger (D-IL) bring Obama's Dem Convention Watch total to 254. (They are not including newly elected Representative Don Cazayoux who has not been sworn in yet, nor Montana's Margaret Campbell who by rule said she cannot publicly endorse, after having done so, so the actual hard count is now 256.)

Now the primaries! The most recent Zogby polls, the most reliable on this year on the election/primary day has Obama pulling away in North Carolina 51%-37% and in all important Indiana seeing Obama also holding a 45%-43% lead, (actually a 47%-41%) where overwhelming the pollster is saying the undecided's are falling Obama's way.

Now let us look at the projection game. This morning I was directed to the American University's Center for Presidential Politics where they are trying to come up with an effective research on predicting superdelegate endorsements. their work has identified five predictors of endorsements that are quite accurate and are based on the following criteria:

1) Gender.
2) The presidential vote in the superdelegate's state or congressional district.
3) The percentage of the state's superdelegates supporting Clinton.
4) Who won the state's primary/caucus.
5) Whether the superdelegate made their endorsement before or after Super Tuesday.

Based on this they have identified the remaining superdelegates who are officially unannounced or uncommitted. Working though the raw data here is my analysis.

Obama

• 35 are 90% or above probability endorsing Obama or equating to 31
• 31 are 80% or above probability endorsing Obama or equating to 25
• 27 are 70% or above probability endorsing Obama or equating to 19
• 45 are 60% or above probability endorsing Obama or equating to 27
• 39 are 50% or above probability endorsing Obama or equating to 19
• Thus 56 probably remain outside the predictor model and 121 high probable endorsements.
  

Clinton

• 1 is 90% or above probability endorsing Clinton equating to 1
• 1 is 80% or above probability endorsing Clinton equating to 1
• 10 are 70% or above probability endorsing Clinton equating to 7
• 29 are 60% or above probability endorsing Clinton equating to 17
• 22 are 50% or above probability endorsing Clinton equating to 11
• Thus 26 probably remain outside the predictor model and 37 high probable endorsements.