4/30/08

SUPERDELEGATES breaking Obama today!

After the stern public announcement by future President Barack Obama divorcing himself from his former pastor, Reverend Wright yesterday the superdelegate endorsement battle quickly ramped up in its pace. Late last night Clinton gained another endorsement Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO) and the younger brother of famed TV comedian actor "Red" Skelton. This on top of the highly covered endorsement of Gov. Mike Easley (D-NC) who I will report a curious statement later. This morning the Clinton camp announced the endorsement of William George (DNC-PA) bringing her up to an even 260.

Not to be outdone the Obama campaign after announcing two endorsements yesterday, Machecek (DNC-IA) and Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY), it announced three more today and possibly more to come. Three Congressman no less, Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA), Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN) , and Rep. Lois Capas (D-CA) bringing Obama now into the lead of U.S. Representatives as well. All told Obama now has 242 superdelegate endorsements to Clinton's 260 or a difference of 18. I can recall when I was happy to report that Obama was only 45 short, now he is trailing by a mere dozen and a half!

There is more news as Sen. Claire McCaskill was reported telling the press in Politico's article, that the 80 remaining Congressional officials who are uncommitted have made up their minds and it appears to be breaking Obama's way.

Capitol Hill insiders say the battle for congressional superdelegates is over, and one Senate supporter of Barack Obama is hinting strongly that he has prevailed over Hillary Rodham Clinton. While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand.

The majority of superdelegates I’ve talked to are committed, but it is a matter of timing,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.).

They’re just preferring to make their decision public after the primaries are over. ... They would like someone else to act for them before they talk about it in the cold light of day.”
Obama currently holds an 18-13 lead among committed superdelegates in the Senate, while Clinton holds a 77-74 lead in the House. Asked which way the committed-but-unannounced superdelegates are leaning, McCaskill — who has endorsed Obama — said:
“James Brown would say, ‘I Feel Good.’”

Local news it was told to me in private and Dan Slater made a post in a newsgroup that Frederico Pena, Obama's National vice-chairman of the campaign will be slated for Colorado's Add-On Delegate at the upcoming State Convention. Obama's campaign holds almost 70% of the delegates where one can state that this will be a soft superdelegate endorsement.

Yesterday I left you with the magic number being 25 superdelegate endorsements or newly gathered pledged delegates. Today that number is reduced by 4 (with the addition of Pena as the expected CO Add-On).

Stay tuned as further updates might be in order as well as watch the polls in the next two days as the Wright controversy comes to a dead end and Clinton's mindless proposal to drop the Federal Gasoline Tax $.18 is being shown to be clueless.

4/29/08

More Wright, more superdelegates and more thoughts

Rev. Wright's self-destructive performance yesterday probably did Obama a favor, as Obama who is in the midst of totally distancing himself in a press conference right this afternoon. It appears he has severed any form of relationship with Wright. Wright was either deliberately throwing himself under the bus by being absolutely unrepentant politically or absolutely prophetic as a religious zealot in discussing a confrontational Liberation Theology to the national press is to be determined. Now whether there is a legitimate reason for what is called "liberation theology" where a segment of our national society or the global society where there to be a needs a liberation from another segment of those societies is a legitimate question. Be it what it may, that discussion and underlying issue where America needs to coherently discuss it is also to be determined, whether that is possible rationally is another. In my view this whole issue that Wright was putting forward is actually no different than the than how the Abolitionists like John Brown tried before the 1860 election where Lincoln was far more pragmatic in his politics than the zealotry of the abolition movement professed.

On the tactical battlefront in securing those delegates Obama picked up THREE more superdelegates today making the score 10-3 Obama's way since the Pennsylvania Primary. Kentucky's Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY), has endorsed and will make a public announcement today. Also included is DNC Chairman Mark Kirk (D-MA) who's public announcement placed him in the hard count. Not to be overlooked is Iowa's Richard Machacek (DNC-IA) . This on the heals of NM's Senator Bingaman yesterday in contrast to Clinton's lone endorsement, NC's Gov. Mike Easley (D-NC) . The hard count now is now at 238 for Obama to Clinton's 257.

Obama has now closed the gap to less than 20 superdelegates. Regarding publicly elected Democratic leaders Obama holds the lead in Governor's (14-11), U.S. Senators (18-13), while in U.S. Rep's Clinton still maintains a (77-75) lead where overall Obama leads by three. Also two DNC Add-On superdelegates were selected from Arizona and New Mexico and both remain uncommitted. There are 76 Add-On's, many still be be named where 64 remain uncommitted, Obama leads in those who have declared (8-4). Lastly Obama picked up another Iowa district pledged delegate yesterday as even though the Clinton campaign attempted to join with Edwards to keep a delegate viable, it failed so Obama now enjoys another pickup.


Bob's Daily Math, how close is Obama really!

  • Obama Pledged Delegates: 1499
  • Obama hard count superdelegates: 238
  • Obama unofficial soft count superdelegates: 6
  • Obama projected through primary season 205 (note 3 less now from IN)
  • Pelosi majority of pledged delegates vote: 11
  • Total projected gathered: 1959
  • Magic number: 66 new endorsement superdelegates or newly gathered pledged delegates through convention process.
Potential delegates to be picked up.
  • 235 remaining uncommitted named superdelegates
  • 62 Add-On superdelegates some to be named at State Conventions (plus 2 for MI)
  • 19 remaining pledged Edwards delegates
  • 203 pledged delegates projected to Clinton in upcoming primaries.
Projected pickup's:
  • 10 of 19 Edwards delegates (reduce magic number to 63)
  • 31 of 62 Add-On's to be named (reduce magic number to 32
Probable number of hard count superdelegate pickup's = 25 to clinch the nomination

4/28/08

More and more delegates, another super and the Iowa cache

Over the weekend saw the Obama campaign gather in 13 delegates (some say 9 but officially it is 13) moving his current take from the Iowa convention process to 29 from a previous 16. These delegates were chosen at their Congressional District Conventions where Edwards lost all but 4 of his delegates at this round. In June 16 more at-large delegates will be chosen at their state convention where it is expected that Obama should gather a majority from there.

Futhermore Obama added another superdelegate, Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) in an announcement today. This places the post PA primary haul of 5 to 2 (actually one was an Add-On's, Kathy Sullivan (D-NH), while Obama gathered endorsements from Charlene Fernandez (D-AZ) their Attorney General over the weekend. All told Obama now holds 236 superdelegates to Clinton's 257.

This leads me to my final analysis: I currently figure that Obama has 1498 hard count pledged delegates in his stable, and additional 236 superdelegates adding up to 1734 hard count delegates. That is 291 short of 2025. Also Axelrod's conservative projections hold that Obama is expected to gather another 208 pledged delegates through the remaining contests. This places the count down to 83. There are 64 remaining Add-On's where Politico projections have it that Obama will gather an estimated 38, dropping the number down to 45 delegates.

Parsing further one can state that there are those 16 remaining Iowa delegates, just calculate that there is an 8 to 8 split, this brings the number down to 37. Edwards still holds 18 delegates who by all accounts are superdelegates, calculate a split there, 9 to 9. Now the figure falls to 29. Then there is the announced unofficial superdelegates like Carter and Harkin, they number 6 that state they will vote for who holds the largest number of pledged delegates and the number drops to 23. Further examination and there are lose delegates in caucus states like Kansas, Colorado, Minnesota, Idaho and Utah where Obama won by overwhelming numbers, one can speculate that he could pick up an additional 4 in these remaining procedural contests. This then drops the superdelegate need to below 20.

Watch the superdelegate count, there are 6 supposedly about to commit for Obama in North Carolina and a couple more in Indiana, where suddenly a new pundit will do the same math as I did and determine that Obama is within reach of clinching the nomination.

4/25/08

Congressman Clyburn calls out Bill Clinton and Obama campaign closer to clinching it than you think

This development has a bigger effect than the what you might expect. Congressman Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is probably the most important old school African-American politician in office. He is the insider's-insider for he actually is the Majority-Whip, the 3rd ranking member of the House behind Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Representative Steny Hoyer (D-MA). In short he has stated that Bill Clinton has broken his bond with the Black community where he called Bill Clinton's behavior in a NY Times article, “bizarre” conduct during the Democratic primary campaign. He continued:
[B]lack people are incensed over all of this,” referring to statements Mr. Clinton has made in the course of the heated race between Senators Clinton and Obama.

Black leaders widely criticized Mr. Clinton after he equated the eventual victory of Mr. Obama in the South Carolina primary in January to that of the Rev. Jesse Jackson in the 1988 primary, a parallel that many took as an effort to diminish Mr. Obama’s success in the campaign.

In a radio interview in Philadelphia on Monday
, Mr. Clinton defended his remarks and said the Obama campaign had “played the race card on me” by making an issue of them.

Mr. Clyburn said Mr. Clinton’s conduct in this campaign had caused
what might be an irreparable breach between Mr. Clinton and an African-American constituency that once revered him.

“When he was going through his impeachment problems, it was the black community that bellied up to the bar,” Mr. Clyburn said. “I think black folks feel strongly that this is a strange way for President Clinton to show his appreciation.”

Mr. Clyburn added that there appeared to be an almost unanimous view among African-Americans that Mr. and Mrs. Clinton were committed to doing everything they possibly could to damage Mr. Obama to a point that he could never win in the general election.

To maintain proper perspective here is the entire interview with Bill Clinton on WHYY:

"I think that they played the race card on me. We now know, from memos from the campaign that they planned to do it along.” - President Bill Clinton.

And that’s how President Clinton begins his answerto WHYY’s Susan Phillips who, during a phone interview earlier this evening, asked the President how he feels about one Philadelphia official who says she switched her support after interpreting Clinton’s remarks in South Carolina as an attempt to marginalize Obama as “the black candidate.”

Clinton goes on to say that “you have to really go some to play the race card on me.” He lists a number of his accomplishments on behalf of people of color, inexplicably putting the fact that he has “an office in Harlem” at the top of the list.

Clearly, Clinton seems clearly frustrated by the question or the suggestion by anyone - either the reporter or the Philadelphia official whom she quoted - that he was somehow making a negative statement about Obama (or Jesse Jackson) based on their race. His frustration comes through towards the end of the recording when, apparently unaware that he was still on the line, Clinton asks whoever is with him, "I don’t think I should take anyshit from anybody on that, do you?

It is my humble opinion is that this will signal the death nill for the Clinton campaign in the succeeding weeks. North Carolina democratic electorate is 38% African-American and reports are that the largest voter registration increases have come in this community. Don't overlook the impact where upwards of 25% of the expected primary vote will come from just two counties: Marion County (home of Indianapolis) and Lake County [AKA "the Region"]. Indianapolis is the capital and state’s largest city, and "The Region" is home to industrial cities of Gary/Hammond/East Chicago, located in the northwest corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market. Both will strongly favor the Illinois senator, predict Indiana political observers, thanks in part to large African-American populations. Concentrations are so heavy that of 253 precincts in the state have delivered more than 90 percent of the vote to Democrats in recent elections - 241 of them are in the Indianapolis-based 7th-CD and the Gary-based 1st-CD.

In Lake County, Obama was a household name well before his presidential bid and in Marion County, Obama’s already well-oiled grass-roots operation will get a boost. Rep. Andre Carson, who just succeeded his late grandmother in a special election, will face off against three credible Democratic challengers, spiking turnout numbers in the hotly contested Democratic primary. Matthew Tully, political columnist for the Indianapolis Star and a Gary native who notes:
“If he wins huge in the cities, it makes it harder to overcome in other places,” notes Tully. In other words, Clinton could win the vast majority of counties in the state and still lose. “We have 92 counties, and if he wins the right five, he’s OK,” said one Indiana Democratic insider.

That’s because, contrary to some stereotypes of the state, Indiana’s population is largely packed into small and medium cities - not spread out in rural areas. It’s more than 70 percent urban, and 30 of the state’s counties produce 81 percent of the vote.
Essentially this is bigger than any mindless argument of Obama losing the working class vote, Clyburn is saying the Clinton's have lost the African American vote. Superdelegates will not want to lose this contingency where as Axelrod cool-headed said that the Democrats have lost the working class vote for years.

Now speaking of Axelrod I have worked the numbers and actually Obama's magic number is 43 superdelegates to secure the nomination based on the following math.
  • Current BO pledged delegates: 1493 (there remains 5 TBD in PA, projected to fall 2 to 1 Obama but not counted).
  • Superdelegate endorsements: 234 (although MSNBC has it at 238, could they be counting 3 of the unofficial endorsements who knows)
  • Unofficial endorsements: 3 (President Carter, Senator Harkin MT Super)
  • Pledged to Delegate Leader superdelegates: 7 ( Nancy Pelosi, Christine Pelosi, Gov. Roy Romer, Betty Richie, Denise Johnson, Gov. Corzine and Sen. Maria Cantwell)
  • Axelrod Spread projection for remaining contests: 208 (this is due to the proportionality of the party rules and Axelrod's uncanny model.
  • Add-On's from State Conventions: 38 (projected out of 65 but you can move it to 33-32 if you want).

1982 is his probable projected number right now, it could be as high as 1986 but for this sake it is reasonable to say he will have 1982 by June 10th. That leaves 43 superdelegates out of the remaining 239. Now that does not include the 6 superdelegates about to announce in NC so this number can fall as low as 37 quite soon, falling even to 35 with PA's TBD pledged delegates.

4/24/08

Another superdelegate this one from Oregon and conventional analysis

Today the Obama campaign added another supedelegate endorsement to their cache, Rep. David Wu (D-OR) giving him 234 commitments to Clinton's 256. This gives Obama 75 US House of Representative Congresspersons, (Clinton has 77), and 106 elected officials to Clinton's even 100. It also drops the Bob-Magic Number quotient to 90 (Clinton is 235) needed to make the 2025 and the minimum needed for nomination.

Also Obama picked up 3 more pledged delegates in Pennsylvania where Clinton won at least 82 of the 158 delegates that were up for grabs Tuesday according to the Associated Press. Obama won at least 73, with three still to be awarded. Obama limited Clinton's delegate gain by doing well in the Philadelphia area. Also the press is beginning to realize it was not a double-digit win where the final is 9.3%.

Now a bit of analysis. Back on February 6th the Axelrod spreadsheet was released, leaked or mistakenly sent to the press that projected the nomination process. As I have said it is exceedingly accurate in its projections. Working through the projections Obama now has earned 1493 pledged delegates (to Clinton's 1333) building a 160 delegate advantage. Axelrod's spread suggests that Obama will now finish with 1701 pledged delegates. There are also 65 Add-On's voted on by most State Conventions which also can be earned through a delegate vote. Obama has 234 superdelegates which places him at a projected 1935 compared to Clinton's 1790 projection. Thus it puts Obama at 90 needed to make 2025.

Going forward I am aware of at least 11 superdelegates who have not officially committed to Obama so conceivably he could be down to 79. This is what other superdelegates are looking at, what other informed contributors are looking at, the inevitable delegate march for the nomination. Obama has picked up more than 79 superdelegates since February 5th, to Clinton's 5 net. With each commitment the squeeze becomes closer. My thinking is that by May 6th Obama will have gained at least a dozen, possibly half of those I know already. Meaning May 10th could be the final day of the process in all reality.

4/23/08

Obama gets another as campaigns compete to roll out superdelegates

The Obama campaign announced its second superdelegate ironically another from a "Red State" Audra Ostergard, (DNC-NE) Associate Chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party.

Furthermore if any of you are reading this please email me or comment here on the rising prospects of the "arranged marriage" by Democratic leaders of an Obama-Clinton ticket? To me it is obvious political necessity in that the great divide by the bitter nomination process would need a game-changing and almost forced unification effort. It would mirror many successful political marriages; Bill Clinton- Al Gore in 1992, Ronald Reagan-Bush I marriage in 1980, John Kennedy-Lyndon Johnson in 1960, William McKinley-Theodore Roosevelt in 1900. All proved politically successful in gaining the White House although coincidentally three resulted in assassinations attempts and two were successful.

Also an important movement from the Edwards campaign the Obama campaign announced the the support of Ed Turlington, the former national general chairman of John Edwards' campaign, a huge North Carolina Democratic activist.

The calm before the storm is now facing the Clinton campaign with their finances. TPM reports that Mark Penn is owed $4.6M, MSHC Partners (a mail order outfit) is owed over $1M, over $525,000 to Mandy Grunwald's consulting firm and finally

The day after the disappointment, but it was projected by Axelrod

The latest projected results are that Clinton won by 9.4%, (not TEN as commonly being presented by the press) and thus not a DOUBLE DIGIT margin. That said, Obama still lost but eerily he lost precisely by the margin that David Axelrod predicted back in January as he mapped out the campaign and nomination path in a famous spread sheet leaked or mistakenly released to the press after February's Super Tuesday.

Actually is 50 pledged delegates ahead of Axelrod's modeling with 1490 delegates won, (they still have to divide up 7 or so delegates from Pennsylvania from the results in their Congressional Districts. All told Obama stands at an estimated 1722 with the 232 superdelegates, where one committed today, where Governor Brad Henry (D-OK) endorsed Obama today. Simultaneously Clinton picked up Representative John Tanner (D-TN) making the count 256-232 and still a difference of 24.

Today I looked at the Axelrod spreadsheet and through his projections it appears Obama will finish the nomination process with 1798 (+ the current 232 superdelegates) placing him at 1930 with still 306 superdelegates to commit. Axelrod believes they will win by 6% in North Carolina and 3% in Indiana, picking up 14 delegates and almost equaling the haul that Clinton gained in Pennsylvania. With the projected win in Oregon 13% and gaining 4 more delegates while Axelrod predicts big losses in Kentucky and West Virginia, losing 7 and thus a net loss of 3 through the entire process. Then Montana and South Dakota vote where Obama is projected to win big again, picking up a net three delegates whereby the whole process is a wash, leaving Puerto Rico.

Going away watch the superdelegate commitments closely. It is said that Obama is close to announcing more over the next couple of days from Mark Ambinder.

4/21/08

Primary EVE....polls unreliable says the real experts

On the eve of the long-awaited Pennsylvania primary the polls are all over the place and yet the unreported news is that all the professional political insiders are telling the news people not to trust the polls. The major reason is that the demographics in Pennsylvania belie good polling for Clinton because most of the telephone polling is only identifying previous Democratic voters where 300,000 new Democratic voters, (many who switched), most in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs and that about 25% are young voters. Both these groups are not in the models and under reported.

The rundown:
  • PPP Obama 49% to Clinton 46% 5 % undecided
  • Rasmussen Clinton 49% to Obama 44% 7% undecided
  • Zogby Clinton 48% to Obama 42% 8% undecided
  • Suffolk Clinton 52% to Obama 42% 6% undecided
  • Strategic Vision Clinton 48% to Obama 41% 11 undecided
  • Quinnipeac Clinton 51% to Obama 44% 4 % undecided
  • Survey USA Clinton 50% to Obama 44% 2% undecided

Today Obama picked up another superdelegate, ironically from Ohio and an elected official, Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) while Clinton picked up another Ohioan Enid Goubeaux (DNC-OH). Late Saturday Clinton also picked up an Ohioan elected superdelegate, Betty Sutton (D-OH). This places the superdelegate count at 255 to 231 hard count. Oh and that tracking poll from Gallup Obama has rebounded to a 49% to 42%, while another national poll has him way up 54% to 35%.

Back to Pennsylvania. This year one can tell the situation as to what the private polling which has been far more predictive to the public polling by the candidate's behavior the day or so before the date. Today Bill Clinton is worried telling Pittsburgh area voters that they need to turn out and some polling in rural areas have Clinton and Obama almost dead even. While Obama appears confident that the night will be a close one and some private communications in eastern PA have told me that they might see a record turnout in both Philadelphia and its suburbs. It will be interesting.

Finally Obama raised a precise total $42.6M for March while Clinton raised $20M.

4/19/08

The One Constant in this Election Year; "the experts are almost always wrong"....ex: WaPo "Small Town PA maybe not 'Bitter' over 'Bitter' "

I am 51 years old, an educated Political Scientist, a progressive/liberal activist off and on for almost 20 years, sometimes I was involved in party politics, other times I was an issue-oriented activist, so this year has been infinitely fascinating to me on every level. Conversing with a couple quite learned and objective political observers---namely a couple of professors whom I will keep personally confidential, we have all come to the conclusion that there is one constant in this election year: "The experts are almost always wrong!"

"That is what happens when the electorate's dynamic is fundamentally changing", wrote one in a recent email exchange. Obama also observed following the Ohio and Texas Primary Day; "we seem to always succeed when we do things counter-intuitively." So when the Washington Post published this story today that discussed how small town Pennsylvania was not 'bitter' over the 'bitter' comment, this went counter to all the experts foreseeing Obama losing ground in this demographic. It also anecdotally confirmed what the most recent polling has been showing where Obama has seemed to gain in Pennsylvania.
Yet while questioning elements of Obama's remarks, residents showed little personal offense. Some, including potential Clinton supporters, questioned her claim to be a grittier alternative to Obama, noting her personal wealth and her husband's signing of the NAFTA blamed for job losses.

Most of all, residents noted the irony that -- after years of neglect -- they are having their innermost feelings argued over by presidential candidates and pundits, all because of a two-sentence gaffe.

The other notable today is the traditional canvassing of newspaper endorsements in Pennsylvania by TPM where a majority are backing Obama:

Papers endorsing Obama:

The Philadelphia Inquirer

Citizen's Voice

The Scranton Times-Tribune

The Allentown Morning Call

The Patriot News

Bucks County Courier

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Philadelphia Daily News

Papers endorsing Hillary:
The Daily Pennsylvanian
Then one last note, Obama picked up another superdelegate last night moving his number up to 230 while Clinton remained steady at 253. Steven Achepohl (DNC-NE) endorsed Obama making him the 81st to do so in the last 75 days.

Finally here is a thought, it is now being projected that the worst Obama will do in PA is lose 55%-45%, and also lose only by 9 delegates, however some projections are saying he may squeak out a narrow victory like in Missouri which would mean he might gain the 9 delegates. The situation is that in the delegate rich Philadelphia and SE PA where half of Pennsylvanians reside Obama is winning heavily. If turnout exceeds projections than his strength in the east will overtake any strongholds in the central 'T' portion of the rural mountain regions. The break will be in Pittsburgh where how strong will Obama do there.

4/18/08

This just in NEWSWEEK National Poll Obama up 19%--- Obama 54% Clinton 35%

Even though the daily Gallup Tracking Poll has closed to 3 points since the national debate, but now NEWSWEEK has released a stunning reversal of sorts----OBAMA up 19 points. One point it was taken Monday and Tuesday of this week but it shows the deep advances Obama has made over the 6 weeks since the last primaries.

Bill Clinton's college roommate endorses Obama, oh and he was also his Labor Secretary too!

Robert Reich, the former and highly competent Labor Secretary in the Clinton Administration from 1993 to 1997, currently a professor at Harvard and ironically a college friend and roommate of Bill Clinton when they were at Oxford and Yale Universities has made the following post in his blog;

Friday, April 18, 2008

Obama for President

The formal act of endorsing a candidate is generally (and properly)limited to editorial pages and elected officials whose constituents might be influenced by their choice. The rest of us shouldn't assume anyone cares. My avoidance of offering a formal endorsement until now has also been affected by the pull of old friendships and my reluctance as a teacher and commentator to be openly partisan. But my conscience won't let me be silent any longer.

I believe that Barack Obama should be elected President of the United States. Although Hillary Clinton has offered solid and sensible policy proposals, Obama's strike me as even more so. His plans for reforming Social Security and health care have a better chance of succeeding. His approaches to the housing crisis and the failures of our financial markets are sounder than hers. His ideas for improving our public schools and confronting the problems of poverty and inequality are more coherent and compelling. He has put forward the more enlightened foreign policy and the more thoughtful plan for controlling global warming.

He also presents the best chance of creating a new politics in which citizens become active participants rather than cynical spectators. He has energized many who had given up on politics. He has engaged young people to an extent not seen in decades. He has spoken about the most difficult problems our society faces, such as race, without spinning or simplifying. He has rightly identified the armies of lawyers and lobbyists that have commandeered our democracy, and pointed the way toward taking it back.

Finally, he offers the best hope of transcending the boundaries of class, race, and nationality that have divided us. His life history exemplifies this, as do his writings and his record of public service. For these same reasons, he offers the best possibility of restoring America's moral authority in the world.
Now you think the family howls from the Clinton camp were big with Governor Bill Richardson's endorsement think what they are now with Reich's announcement who by all accounts is an old friend. Not to be overlooked two old party heavyweights, Former Senator's Sam Nunn (D-GA) and David Boren (D-OK) publicly endorsed Obama through two press releases today. Coincidentally this kind of challenges Clinton's small town/electability argument as more and more Red State politicians who seemingly know these areas quite well are becoming even more confident about Obama.

Sam Nunn
"America remains the strongest nation in the world, but we can only be successful in tackling our toughest problems if we gain cooperation at home and abroad. Our next president - working across party and economic lines - must restore and strengthen our national purpose, our credibility, our competence and our spirit.

"We need a president who has the temperament of a leader - a sharp, incisive, strategic mind, a rare capacity for self criticism, and a willingness to hear contrary points of view.

"Based on my conversations with Senator Obama, reading his book and his speeches and seeing the kind of campaign he has run, I believe that he is our best choice to lead our nation. Senator Obama, as evidenced by his words and his deeds, recognizes that:

· We have developed a habit of avoiding the tough decisions and seemingly lost our ability to build consensus to tackle head-on our biggest challenges.

· Demonizing the opposition, oversimplifying the issues, and dumbing down the political debate prevent our country from coming together to make tough decisions and tackle our biggest challenges.

· Solving America's problems will require difficult choices and sacrifices and leaders capable of considering new ideas from both political parties.

· On foreign policy and security policy, we must recognize that we are not limited to a choice between belligerency and isolation and that we must listen to lead successfully on the key issues facing America and the world.

· Our next president must also recognize that the battle against violent terrorists, while requiring a prudent use of military power, is also a long-term contest of psychology and ideas.


"I believe that Senator Obama has a rare ability to restore America's credibility and moral authority and to get others to join us in tackling serious global problems that will determine our own well being and security. I believe that he will bring to the White House, high principles, clear vision and sound judgment. I believe that he will inspire people to put aside extreme partisanship for the common good. I believe that he will awaken the energy and idealism of people who have never been active in public affairs, particularly our young people. I believe that he will also attract skilled, experienced and energetic people to government and will have the sound judgment to put together an outstanding governing team, bringing people together across old boundaries.

"I believe that Barack Obama is the right choice for our nation. My own role in this campaign will be as an advisor - particularly in the field of national security and foreign policy."

Boren:

"I am joining Senator Barack Obama's advisory team on foreign policy and national security because I believe it is my duty as a citizen to do all I can to help our country at this critical moment. Our strength is declining. Eighty-one percent of Americans believe we are headed in the wrong direction. We must act quickly to meet and overcome the challenges we face.

"Our most urgent task is to end the divisions in our country, to stop the political bickering, and to unite our talents and efforts. Americans of all persuasions are pleading with our political leaders to bring us together. I believe Senator Obama is sincerely committed to that effort. He has made a non-partisan approach to all issues a top priority.

"Senator Obama is also a person of sound and good judgment. He had the good judgment more than five years ago to warn against our involvement in this tragic and costly war. He also understands the need to repair our partnerships with other nations and to more effectively use diplomacy to serve our national interests.

"It is my hope that in sharing what I have learned during my time in public service, I will be helping my country."

Those endorsements come on the heels of this NY Times article headlined: Superdelegates unswayed by Clinton Attacks. The most interesting revelation in the article besides the scorecard that Obama continues to pick up superdelegates is this:
Yet despite giving it her best shot in what might have been their final debate, interviews on Thursday with a cross-section of these superdelegates — members of Congress, elected officials and party leaders — showed that none had been persuaded much by her attacks on Mr. Obama’s strength as a potential Democratic nominee, his recent gaffes and his relationships with his former pastor and with a onetime member of the Weather Underground...

...Clinton advisers acknowledged that they had not seen short-term evidence that their attacks on Mr. Obama were winning over many superdelegates, and they acknowledged that he had picked up more in recent weeks — though she maintained a narrowing overall lead in them...

...“When it comes to picking a candidate, automatic delegates don’t want to guess about what lies behind Door No. 2, they want to know,” said Phil Singer, a Clinton spokesman. “The debate raised more questions about Senator Obama than have been answered, and that means that automatic delegates are likely to keep their powder dry as the process moves forward.”

In response, an Obama spokesman, Hari Sevugan, said Thursday: “Since Feb. 5, Senator Obama has garnered the support of 80 superdelegates to Senator Clinton’s 5. We’ll let the results of Senator Clinton’s ‘kitchen sink’ strategy speak for themselves.”

Possibly this is why DNC Chairman Howard Dean told CNN's audience yesterday that the wanted the superdelegates to start making their minds up now:

(CNN)— An increasingly firm Howard Dean told CNN again Thursday that he needs superdelegates to say who they’re for – and “I need them to say who they’re for starting now.”

We cannot give up two or three months of active campaigning and healing time,” the Democratic National Committee Chairman told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer. “We’ve got to know who our nominee is.”

After facing criticism for a mostly hands-off leadership style during much of the primary season, Dean has been steadily raising the rhetorical pressure on superdelegates. He said Thursday that roughly 65 percent of them have made their preference plain, but that more than 300 have yet to make up their minds.

Of course for the second time big money interests backing the Clinton's immediately responded:by chastising Dean in interviews with TPM today:
"Governor Dean should do what he has said he will do -- refrain from injecting himself into the primary process, as millions of Democrats have yet to cast their votes," Hillary national finance chair Hassan Nemazee, one of the most influential fundraisers in the Democratic Party, told me today.

"If he wishes to do something productive," Nemazee continued, "he should exhibit the leadership necessary to resolve the Florida and Michigan impasse, which has disenfranchised millions of Democratic voters."

Robert Zimmerman, a Democratic National Committeeman and key Hillary fundraiser, sounded a similar note in an interview with me today. "Howard Dean is more committed to pressuring the super delegates to make up their minds before the voting is done than he is to ensuring that Michigan and Florida's votes are counted," Zimmerman charged.

He added that Dean could "best ensure that we have a strong Democratic nominee and a united party" by focusing on those two states, rather than pressuring super-dels.

Then there were two new polls released today one done by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics (Indiana/Purdue Fort Wayne) stating that voters currently prefer Barack Obama 50% to Hillary Clinton 45%. Obama received 50% with 5% undecided and a margin of error of +/- 4.2%, conducted by Survey USA.

The other was in Pennsylvania conducted by Rasmussen that showed the race tightening ever more with Clinton losing 3 points to 47% and Obama gaining 3 points, up to 44% with still 9% undecided. A real counter-intuitive point is that 12 of the respondants stated they had seen the PA Debate where it effected them, meaning the bar moved in Obama's favor. Pundits GO FIGURE?

Here is the figure, three national polls taken this week, Rasmussen, Zogby and Times have the race between 3 and 4 points separating, while Quinnipiac had the race tightening and PPP had Obama with a lead----this all spells a very close race. Clinton backers continue to downgrade win expectations where even their state chair said if they win by one vote it is a victory. That said NJ's Governor Corzine, a Clinton backer said, she must win Pennsylvania, period.

Finally the superdelegate count indeed moved late last night and this afternoon where Clinton gained three, 2 Add-On's, Jim Florio & Brendan Byrne (NJ) and and Rep. Betty Sutton (D-OH), while Obama gained the official backing of Janice Griffin (DNC-MA). This puts the numbers at 253 for Clinton and 229 for Obama, who is back to 24 needing to catch. It is interesting to note that Obama has earned the endorsements of 80 superdelegates since February, 34% while Clinton has actually been absolutely flat now making up the lost superdelegates she had in January.


4/16/08

ABC's bushwacking, Bitter-sweet poll data...Hillary it is not working; also 5 new superdelegates in the House!

Again I got busy yesterday and didn't post to this blog, that said how about ABC New's 'Bushwacking' of Obama last night in Pennsylvania. The term 'bushwacking' is defined as: "bushwhacking guerrillas attacking from ambush" from the mid 19th century 'Kansas is burning pre-statehood border wars'. The Washington Post's summary is defined by their headline, The Clear Loser is ABC, when Tom Shales wrote:

When Barack Obama met Hillary Clinton for another televised Democratic candidates' debate last night, it was more than a step forward in the 2008 presidential election. It was another step downward for network news -- in particular ABC News, which hosted the debate from Philadelphia and whose usually dependable anchors, Charles Gibson and George Stepanopoulos turned in shoddy, despicable performances.
For the first 52 minutes of the two-hour, commercial-crammed show, Gibson and Stephanopoulos dwelled entirely on specious and gossipy trivia that already has been hashed and rehashed, in the hope of getting the candidates to claw at one another over disputes that are no longer news. Some were barely news to begin with.
Obama was right on the money when he complained about the campaign being bogged down in media-driven inanities and obsessiveness over any misstatement a candidate might make along the way, whether in a speech or while being eavesdropped upon by the opposition. The tactic has been to "take one statement and beat it to death," he said.
This seems to be a pattern of self destruction by the establishment that now appears to be desperate in hanging on each of their power positions as it is evident that Obama indeed represents a Political Movement away from the politics of the past and into a new period. Political movements are revolutions, meaning turning over, these are necessary for all things to grow, be it turning over the soil or societies. America and its government, the people who control its institutions have become ineffectual and irrelevant, even destructive. You don't think the corporate influence of Disney and CAP Cities the media giant that owns ABC News had a influence on how they despicably carried out their opportunity to hold the Democratic debate? This is a big deal, and I am certain private conversations ran up the chain as to both see if they could gain a gotcha moment for their short-sided monetary agenda and two, gain one strategically to keep the establishment in power.


But WaPo was not alone in its assessment. In TPM Cafe I found this post by Reed Hundt who incidentally was the former FCC Chair during the Clinton Administration.

Whew! What a miserable night for Citizen Charles and Citizen George. These are not dumb fellows, and they didn't fail to prepare for the debate. Obviously, they worked hard to develop such intensively emotional, biased, hostile questions, and they were very focussed on avoiding the important issues that will shape the future of the republic for the next generation.

So what gives? What were their motives? What did their bosses give them for a purpose? This is the central question for the mainstream media: why do good people provide such bad journalism from the perspective of the ideal electoral system?

Is it really true that ABC got and held a bigger audience by adopting such a crazy perspective on the debate? Is it really true that Gibson and George S have improved their personal brands by doing the Fox dance?

Not alone, Niall Strange a foreign born NY-based journalist for the Guardian wrote this:

What is it about Philadelphia? The city last month hosted one of the most impressive moments of the presidential campaign to date: Barack Obama's forthright speech on race. But last night, the very same venue - the National Constitution Centre - witnessed one of the worst events: the dismal ABC News debate between the Democratic candidates.

The contrast could hardly have been starker. Obama's March 18 speech was sophisticated, honest and, above all, respectful of the intelligence of his audience. Last night's debate - or, more specifically, the performance of its moderators, Charles Gibson and George Stephanopoulos - was by turns superficial and disingenuous...

...About half the time set aside for the debate had elapsed - and seven flimsy or already-exhausted issues had been raised - before the first serious question of the night, about troop withdrawals from Iraq, was asked.

The relentless triviality was only one problem, however. The more serious failing was the willingness of Gibson and Stephanopoulos to volunteer as water-carriers for a conservative attack machine that, fearful of Obama's crossover appeal, is already working overtime to tarnish his reputation.

But there is more, (I feel I am selling Oxi-clean or something), where Will Bunch writes an Open Letter to Gibson Stephanopoulos,
It's hard to know where to begin with this, less than an hour after you signed off from your Democratic presidential debate here in my hometown of Philadelphia, a televised train wreck that my friend and colleague Greg Mitchell has already called, quite accurately, a shameful night for the US Media, It's hard because -- like many other Americans -- I am still angry at what I just witnessed, so angry that it's hard to even type accurately because my hands are shaking. Look, I know that "media criticism" -- especially when it's one journalist speaking to another -- tends to be a genteel, collegial thing, but there's no genteel way to say this.

With your performance tonight -- your focus on issues that were at best trivial wastes of valuable airtime and at worst restatements of right-wing falsehoods, punctuated by inane "issue" questions that in no way resembled the real world concerns of American voters -- you disgraced my profession of journalism, and, by association, me and a lot of hard-working colleagues who do still try to ferret out the truth, rather than worry about who can give us the best deal on our capital gains taxes. But it's even worse than that. By so badly botching arguably the most critical debate of such an important election, in a time of both war and economic misery, you disgraced the American voters, and in fact even disgraced democracy itself. Indeed, if I were a citizen of one of those nations where America is seeking to "export democracy," and I had watched the debate, I probably would have said, "no thank you." Because that was no way to promote democracy.


Make no mistake Obama indeed represents a revolutionary change in the political landscape far beyond the surface images of a bi-racial man, who was the son of a single mother who earned his way through academic scholarships to Columbia and Harvard. Obama, even though he is a genuine moderate, and even deliberate in most measures, is also almost honest to a fault for a politician in this post-modern cynical society. He is willing to push the envelope and bring out into open "politically incorrect" issues like race relations, economic and class bitterness, social and cultural stagnations and manipulations, and therefore he is a dangerous element for real change that anyone who is privileged or comfortable in the present establishment would be threatened, especially media driven corporations like Disney.

The thing is Clinton's campaign and the mainstream media's obsession with the gaffe's and characterizations are not gaining any traction in the voters, in fact all the polling is showing a solid aversion to this old-school attack politics to Obama's gain. This bitter-sweet pill that currently is consuming the pundits in America's news machine is having a counter-intuitive effect as tough, possibly mortal medicine for Hillary Clinton's campaign. In short----IT IS NOT WORKING!

Clinton's unfavorable polling has now grown to a whopping 54% in the recent Washington Post/ABC Poll. The poll also shows a continued 10% margin for Obama among Democrats leaving Clinton with little left but follow Mark Penn's former partner's, Douglas Schoen, public op-ed advice, to go even more negative!

He now has a 2-to-1 edge on who is considered more electable in a general contest -- a major reversal from the last poll -- and has dramatically reduced a large Clinton lead on which of the two is the "stronger leader."

[T]he new poll, 54 percent said they have an unfavorable view of Sen. Clinton, up from 40 percent a few days after she won the New Hampshire primary.Her favorability rating has dropped among both Democrats and independents over the past three months, although her overall such rating among Democrats remains high. Nearly six in 10 independents now view her unfavorably.

Obama's favorability rating also has declined over the same period but remains, on balance, more positive than negative.

In a subsequent article the ABC/WaPo poll concluded:
Clinton is viewed as "honest and trustworthy" by just 39 percent of Americans, compared with 52 percent in May 2006. Nearly six in 10 said in the new poll that she is not honest and trustworthy. And now, compared with Obama, Clinton has a deep trust deficit among Democrats, trailing him by 23 points as the more honest, an area on which she once led both Obama and John Edwards.
Among Democrats, 63 percent called her honest, down 18 points from 2006; among independents, her trust level has dropped 13 points, to 37 percent. Republicans held Clinton in low regard on this in the past (23 percent called her honest two years ago), but it is even lower now, at 16 percent. Majorities of men and women now say the phrase does not apply to Clinton; two years ago, narrow majorities of both did.

Advisers argue that her positive ratings have dipped as she has been defined by her opponents -- a normal campaign occurrence -- and that her honesty problem reflects the pounding she took from Republicans in the 1990s. But the Bosnia incident and the way the campaign handled it have left advisers divided over what a candidate can do after such a steep drop in trust....

The new poll suggests that much of her problem is with men. Nearly two-thirds of men said Clinton is not honest and trustworthy (an increase of 19 points), compared with 53 percent of women (up 12 points). Democratic men, in particular, have shifted: About four in 10 now do not believe Clinton to be honest and trustworthy, nearly triple the percentage saying so in 2006.

The percentage calling Clinton honest has dropped steeply among whites with higher incomes and levels of education. And while majorities of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents across demographic lines said she is honest and trustworthy, the class divisions remain: The percentage of white Democrats without college degrees calling Clinton honest hardly budged in two years, while those with college degrees have dropped off significantly on the question (from 82 percent to 53 percent).

Bottom line is her attacks on Obama as to "elect-ability" are worse when looking at this data. The problem is that the Democratic Party must begin to reign in the Clintista's before they really do damage. My take is far more sophisticated than the pundits who spew their overly simplistic political analysis for the camera and TV viewership. Obama has developed the political identity that he has what Reagan had, a Teflon coating or better a Star Wars like force field. It is called sincerity, a sense that he is genuinely authentic when he speaks and not merely pandering for personal political gain. It the stuff that was perceived also with JFK, Truman, FDR, TR, Lincoln, Jackson, Monroe, Madison, Jefferson, Adams and Washington. These are probably the 12 greatest presidents in our history, of which it is safe to say that Washington, Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt were the greatest in that he possessed the qualities of sincerity and authenticity along with the exceptional capabilities of leadership and political capabilities to succeed during an extraordinary fateful period. I among others, perceive that Obama has this unique quality of political sincerity and authenticity, where this political campaign has actually been a positive for him, his supporters and the nation, for he has grown and learned to master, while the nation is appearing to also rise above the distractions and superficiality of the press and special interests the pundits are promoting. But this campaign must soon come to a stop.

Now Clinton's back is actually against the wall as for her to gain the nomination she must go full throttle negative, not that it is going to work, but it is her only option. Ironically Douglas Schoen, the former and estranged partner of Mark Penn, the Rasputin-like character that was Clinton's previous chief strategist penned an Op-Ed in the Washington Post on April 16th saying just that.
Hillary Clinton took an important step Monday toward winning the Democratic nomination by launching an ad targeting Obama's recent comments about working-class voters clinging to "guns or religion." The ad is a marked change from her recent determination to use a positive message until the Democratic convention, but for Clinton to capture the nomination she needs to completely abandon her positive campaign and continue to hammer away at Obama.

Clinton has provided a compelling case for her candidacy thus far. After all, the superdelegates have the power to end the Democratic contest now and have chosen to wait. At the very least, Clinton has created enough doubts about Obama and his electability to have earned a chance to compete in the next handful of primaries. But Clinton will almost certainly lose the pledged delegate count and the popular vote. To capture the nomination despite these facts she must convince the superdelegates that she is the only candidate who can win against John McCain in November....

As the underdog, Clinton's positive message will not work unless she is able to undermine Obama's candidacy. The Illinois Senator's success has been largely built upon his claims that he is a unifier who can work above partisan politics, that he will bring change to our government and that he will bring a new style of leadership to Washington. Without bringing a strong amount of skepticism to these claims, Clinton will not be able to make significant inroads in Obama's lead and cannot persuade the superdelegates to go against the will of the American people.

But there is an incorrect analysis, the superdelegates are speaking where as of yesterday and today, five more of them endorsed Obama. Five, yes a handful bringing Obama's hard count up to 228 (22 behind Clinton who is almost unmoved at 250). The gain is not lightening but it sure is consistent where as he was down over 75 in early February he is now below a couple dozen. Also not overlooked is that he has caught Clinton with 74 House of Representatives, leads with fellow Senators, 17-13 and Governors 13-10 (up 7 with the big kahoona elected superdelegates). Clinton hangs on with DNC members but even that is beginning to erode (Clinton 142-113) and DPL (Party Leaders) 10-3. Where Obama leads significantly is the Add-On's 8-1.

Yesterday two Representatives from North Carolina, Mel Watt and David Price, endorsed Obama, (being the two of the eight who are said to about to commit), and from Indiana Andre Carson formerly endorsed Obama. This morning DNC Add-On's, Reggie Whitten (OK) and Harry Thomas Jr. (DC) also committed. It is also noted that Aleita Huguenin (DNC-CA) has now formerly re-committed for Clinton, she seems to be unsteady though.

Coincidentally Robert Reich, a Bill Clinton cabinet appointee, and former roommate wrote a scathing blog post about bitterness, Meet the Press and Old Politics which he appears to passively aggressively slam the Clintons. You may want to read it, for like Richardson close allies might be distancing themselves for the old political family.

Are Americans who have been left behind frustrated? Of course. And their frustrations, their anger and, yes, sometimes their bitterness, have been used since then -- by demagogues, by nationalists and xenophobes, by radical conservatives, by political nuts and fanatical fruitcakes – to blame immigrants and foreign traders, to blame blacks and the poor, to blame "liberal elites," to blame anyone and anything.
And lastly the PA polls are coming in. Zogby is reporting a dead heat at 45%-44% with Obama overwhelmingly winning the Philadelphia area which would make the all important delegate count a break even. Other polls PPP has Obama up 3 points 45%-42%, while Rasmussen has Clinton up 50%-41%, LA Times/Bloomberg Clinton 46%-41%, while ARG and Survey USA has Clinton winning by wide margins. We have seen this before and it means that anything can happen and in all probability it will be close.



4/15/08

Bitterly looking at this Clinton is clinging on hope that her defeat is not inevitable

Today is the 4th day of the "bitter" debate and the polls are showing no traction. In fact the polls are showing that Obama has a "force field" (today's vernacular) or 'Teflon" as in the 1980's lingo. What is it that Obama has that appears to make him immune to this viral political contest? Possibly it might be sincerity and the courage, conviction and courage to be honest with the public, even if the words or message is not pleasant. Anway here is a review of the stories:
  • Bloomberg/LA Times Her formerly double-digit lead is now just a five-point margin in Pennsylvania, survey finds. The reduced margin makes a win for her there less significant. She trails Obama among Hoosiers.

    Pennsylvania
    Clinton 46%
    Obama 41%

    Indiana
    Clinton 35%
    Obama 40%

    North Carolina
    Clinton 34%
    Obama 47%

  • Today's Gallup Daily Tracking Poll gives Barack Obama an 11-point lead over Hillary Clinton, his widest margin ever in Gallup's polling, compared to the numbers of yesterday: Obama 51% Clinton 40%, the poll conducted entirely after the "small town" controversy is a further indication that the whole flap has yet to actually harm Obama's poll numbers.
  • There are really only three polls out early this morning, where the key measure here isn't the size of the lead, it's how they compare to the previous polls taken by the same pollsters the previous week. Of the three, one shows a tightening, another shows a widening by coincidentally the same margin, and the third shows no change at all. None of these changes are appear to be statistically significant.

    Survey USA:
    Clinton 54 (-2), Obama 40 (+2)
    Rasmussen:
    Clinton 50 (+2), Obama 41 (-2)
    Quinnipiac:
    Clinton 50 (+0), Obama 44 (+0)

4/14/08

Bitter pills--good medicine, superdelegate moves and polls

Obama stepped in it with our sound-bite fixation and yet as this plays out the bitter pill just might be good medicine. Naturally I am talking about the bitter comment that Obama used to characterize small-town America as to clinging to religion and guns as [wedge issues] in the face of politics, Washington and society passing them by with lost jobs and services. Look, I have lived in small town America, actually Wisconsin where 17 miles of corn and cabbage fields separated Burlington WI from the Interstate. It was some 40 miles from Milwaukee and 40 miles from Chicago's suburban metropolitan area where it was hundred's of miles from those realities. Small town America is full of bias, prejudice, mis-trust, conspiracy theories, superstitions and misinformation and political manipulation. Harsh and often insulting our family was subject to much bias because we came from Illinois, that we also had jobs outside the area, we thought or talked differently, but more than anything else, we didn't come from there and thus we weren't known or trusted. Ironically many of their children with abilities and vision would move away into more cosmopolitan areas, which had a deteriorating effect in that they were usually the best of their lot, leaving behind those who lacked the courage and ability to compete in the big city.

Yes, Obama kicked over the hornet's nest, but it is also good medicine. It takes out the proverbial holster the underlying threat of Clinton and McCain using these wedge issues and forces some in small town America to wake up out of their prejudices and start voting their real interest. Sure there will be many who will vote for their fear, their mistrust, clinging to some idea that burying their collective heads into the past will provide them salvation and relief. But I think both will not only overplay their hands but most will see through this bull hockey pucks and move to Obama's credibility. The elitist thing will not stick, for Obama is not an elitist, nor did he come from class.Well I was away from the blog since Thursday and the superdelegates did move, mostly for Clinton, but then again Obama continued to mass more. As it stands Clinton's hard count is now 249 (picking up a net 4), picking up Sophie Masloff (DNC-PA), Ronald Donatucci (DNC-PA), William Burga (DNC-OH) and Jackie Speier (DNC-CA) from Friday to Sunday. Obama picked up Wayne Holland (DNC-UT) on Friday and Nancy Martin (DNC-MN) today leaving one more from Minnesota's delegation to commit bringing his hard count total to 223. Politico.com has Clinton at 250 and Obama at 226.

Remember, Obama has undeclared superdelegates like President Jimmy Carter who repeated his assertion that all his family and locale support Obama and one can discern how he is going to vote at the convention. Others of note are Senator Harkin who has stated he will support Obama if he wins the pledged delegate count and further there are the 8 NC' delegates who state they are going to declare for Obama.

  • The PA polls remain all over the place: ARG has another one of those outliers with Clinton coming out with a 20 point lead while Temple U has the contest tied at 47% and Zogby within 4 points. Pollster's graph of the composite polls has the lines converging one week before the primary.