Primary EVE....polls unreliable says the real experts

On the eve of the long-awaited Pennsylvania primary the polls are all over the place and yet the unreported news is that all the professional political insiders are telling the news people not to trust the polls. The major reason is that the demographics in Pennsylvania belie good polling for Clinton because most of the telephone polling is only identifying previous Democratic voters where 300,000 new Democratic voters, (many who switched), most in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs and that about 25% are young voters. Both these groups are not in the models and under reported.

The rundown:

PPP Obama 49% to Clinton 46% 5 % undecided

Rasmussen Clinton 49% to Obama 44% 7% undecided

Zogby Clinton 48% to Obama 42% 8% undecided

Suffolk Clinton 52% to Obama 42% 6% undecided

Strategic Vision Clinton 48% to Obama 41% 11 undecided

Quinnipeac Clinton 51% to Obama 44% 4 % undecided

Survey USA Clinton 50% to Obama 44% 2% undecided

Today Obama picked up another superdelegate, ironically from Ohio and an elected official, Rep Tim Ryan (D-OH) while Clinton picked up another Ohioan Enid Goubeaux (DNC-OH). Late Saturday Clinton also picked up an Ohioan elected superdelegate, Betty Sutton (D-OH). This places the superdelegate count at 255 to 231 hard count. Oh and that tracking poll from Gallup Obama has rebounded to a 49% to 42%, while another national poll has him way up 54% to 35%.

Back to Pennsylvania. This year one can tell the situation as to what the private polling which has been far more predictive to the public polling by the candidate's behavior the day or so before the date. Today Bill Clinton is worried telling Pittsburgh area voters that they need to turn out and some polling in rural areas have Clinton and Obama almost dead even. While Obama appears confident that the night will be a close one and some private communications in eastern PA have told me that they might see a record turnout in both Philadelphia and its suburbs. It will be interesting.

Finally Obama raised a precise total $42.6M for March while Clinton raised $20M.