4/23/08

The day after the disappointment, but it was projected by Axelrod

The latest projected results are that Clinton won by 9.4%, (not TEN as commonly being presented by the press) and thus not a DOUBLE DIGIT margin. That said, Obama still lost but eerily he lost precisely by the margin that David Axelrod predicted back in January as he mapped out the campaign and nomination path in a famous spread sheet leaked or mistakenly released to the press after February's Super Tuesday.

Actually is 50 pledged delegates ahead of Axelrod's modeling with 1490 delegates won, (they still have to divide up 7 or so delegates from Pennsylvania from the results in their Congressional Districts. All told Obama stands at an estimated 1722 with the 232 superdelegates, where one committed today, where Governor Brad Henry (D-OK) endorsed Obama today. Simultaneously Clinton picked up Representative John Tanner (D-TN) making the count 256-232 and still a difference of 24.

Today I looked at the Axelrod spreadsheet and through his projections it appears Obama will finish the nomination process with 1798 (+ the current 232 superdelegates) placing him at 1930 with still 306 superdelegates to commit. Axelrod believes they will win by 6% in North Carolina and 3% in Indiana, picking up 14 delegates and almost equaling the haul that Clinton gained in Pennsylvania. With the projected win in Oregon 13% and gaining 4 more delegates while Axelrod predicts big losses in Kentucky and West Virginia, losing 7 and thus a net loss of 3 through the entire process. Then Montana and South Dakota vote where Obama is projected to win big again, picking up a net three delegates whereby the whole process is a wash, leaving Puerto Rico.

Going away watch the superdelegate commitments closely. It is said that Obama is close to announcing more over the next couple of days from Mark Ambinder.

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