Another superdelegate this one from Oregon and conventional analysis

Today the Obama campaign added another supedelegate endorsement to their cache, Rep. David Wu (D-OR) giving him 234 commitments to Clinton's 256. This gives Obama 75 US House of Representative Congresspersons, (Clinton has 77), and 106 elected officials to Clinton's even 100. It also drops the Bob-Magic Number quotient to 90 (Clinton is 235) needed to make the 2025 and the minimum needed for nomination.

Also Obama picked up 3 more pledged delegates in Pennsylvania where Clinton won at least 82 of the 158 delegates that were up for grabs Tuesday according to the Associated Press. Obama won at least 73, with three still to be awarded. Obama limited Clinton's delegate gain by doing well in the Philadelphia area. Also the press is beginning to realize it was not a double-digit win where the final is 9.3%.

Now a bit of analysis. Back on February 6th the Axelrod spreadsheet was released, leaked or mistakenly sent to the press that projected the nomination process. As I have said it is exceedingly accurate in its projections. Working through the projections Obama now has earned 1493 pledged delegates (to Clinton's 1333) building a 160 delegate advantage. Axelrod's spread suggests that Obama will now finish with 1701 pledged delegates. There are also 65 Add-On's voted on by most State Conventions which also can be earned through a delegate vote. Obama has 234 superdelegates which places him at a projected 1935 compared to Clinton's 1790 projection. Thus it puts Obama at 90 needed to make 2025.

Going forward I am aware of at least 11 superdelegates who have not officially committed to Obama so conceivably he could be down to 79. This is what other superdelegates are looking at, what other informed contributors are looking at, the inevitable delegate march for the nomination. Obama has picked up more than 79 superdelegates since February 5th, to Clinton's 5 net. With each commitment the squeeze becomes closer. My thinking is that by May 6th Obama will have gained at least a dozen, possibly half of those I know already. Meaning May 10th could be the final day of the process in all reality.