Congressman Clyburn calls out Bill Clinton and Obama campaign closer to clinching it than you think

This development has a bigger effect than the what you might expect. Congressman Jim Clyburn (D-SC) is probably the most important old school African-American politician in office. He is the insider's-insider for he actually is the Majority-Whip, the 3rd ranking member of the House behind Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Representative Steny Hoyer (D-MA). In short he has stated that Bill Clinton has broken his bond with the Black community where he called Bill Clinton's behavior in a NY Times article, “bizarre” conduct during the Democratic primary campaign. He continued:

“[B]lack people are incensed over all of this,” referring to statements Mr. Clinton has made in the course of the heated race between Senators Clinton and Obama.

Black leaders widely criticized Mr. Clinton after he equated the eventual victory of Mr. Obama in the South Carolina primary in January to that of the Rev. Jesse Jackson in the 1988 primary, a parallel that many took as an effort to diminish Mr. Obama’s success in the campaign.

In a radio interview in Philadelphia on Monday, Mr. Clinton defended his remarks and said the Obama campaign had “played the race card on me” by making an issue of them.

Mr. Clyburn said Mr. Clinton’s conduct in this campaign had caused what might be an irreparable breach between Mr. Clinton and an African-American constituency that once revered him.

“When he was going through his impeachment problems, it was the black community that bellied up to the bar,” Mr. Clyburn said. “I think black folks feel strongly that this is a strange way for President Clinton to show his appreciation.”

Mr. Clyburn added that there appeared to be an almost unanimous view among African-Americans that Mr. and Mrs. Clinton were committed to doing everything they possibly could to damage Mr. Obama to a point that he could never win in the general election.

To maintain proper perspective here is the entire interview with Bill Clinton on WHYY:

"I think that they played the race card on me. We now know, from memos from the campaign that they planned to do it along.” - President Bill Clinton.

And that’s how President Clinton begins his answerto WHYY’s Susan Phillips who, during a phone interview earlier this evening, asked the President how he feels about one Philadelphia official who says she switched her support after interpreting Clinton’s remarks in South Carolina as an attempt to marginalize Obama as “the black candidate.”

Clinton goes on to say that “you have to really go some to play the race card on me.” He lists a number of his accomplishments on behalf of people of color, inexplicably putting the fact that he has “an office in Harlem” at the top of the list.

Clearly, Clinton seems clearly frustrated by the question or the suggestion by anyone - either the reporter or the Philadelphia official whom she quoted - that he was somehow making a negative statement about Obama (or Jesse Jackson) based on their race. His frustration comes through towards the end of the recording when, apparently unaware that he was still on the line, Clinton asks whoever is with him, "I don’t think I should take any “shit from anybody on that, do you?

It is my humble opinion is that this will signal the death nill for the Clinton campaign in the succeeding weeks. North Carolina democratic electorate is 38% African-American and reports are that the largest voter registration increases have come in this community. Don't overlook the impact where upwards of 25% of the expected primary vote will come from just two counties: Marion County (home of Indianapolis) and Lake County [AKA "the Region"]. Indianapolis is the capital and state’s largest city, and "The Region" is home to industrial cities of Gary/Hammond/East Chicago, located in the northwest corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market. Both will strongly favor the Illinois senator, predict Indiana political observers, thanks in part to large African-American populations. Concentrations are so heavy that of 253 precincts in the state have delivered more than 90 percent of the vote to Democrats in recent elections - 241 of them are in the Indianapolis-based 7th-CD and the Gary-based 1st-CD.

In Lake County, Obama was a household name well before his presidential bid and in Marion County, Obama’s already well-oiled grass-roots operation will get a boost. Rep. Andre Carson, who just succeeded his late grandmother in a special election, will face off against three credible Democratic challengers, spiking turnout numbers in the hotly contested Democratic primary. Matthew Tully, political columnist for the Indianapolis Star and a Gary native who notes:

“If he wins huge in the cities, it makes it harder to overcome in other places,” notes Tully. In other words, Clinton could win the vast majority of counties in the state and still lose. “We have 92 counties, and if he wins the right five, he’s OK,” said one Indiana Democratic insider.

That’s because, contrary to some stereotypes of the state, Indiana’s population is largely packed into small and medium cities - not spread out in rural areas. It’s more than 70 percent urban, and 30 of the state’s counties produce 81 percent of the vote.

Essentially this is bigger than any mindless argument of Obama losing the working class vote, Clyburn is saying the Clinton's have lost the African American vote. Superdelegates will not want to lose this contingency where as Axelrod cool-headed said that the Democrats have lost the working class vote for years.

Now speaking of Axelrod I have worked the numbers and actually Obama's magic number is 43 superdelegates to secure the nomination based on the following math.

• Current BO pledged delegates: 1493 (there remains 5 TBD in PA, projected to fall 2 to 1 Obama but not counted).

• Superdelegate endorsements: 234 (although MSNBC has it at 238, could they be counting 3 of the unofficial endorsements who knows)

• Unofficial endorsements: 3 (President Carter, Senator Harkin MT Super)

• Pledged to Delegate Leader superdelegates: 7 ( Nancy Pelosi, Christine Pelosi, Gov. Roy Romer, Betty Richie, Denise Johnson, Gov. Corzine and Sen. Maria Cantwell)

• Axelrod Spread projection for remaining contests: 208 (this is due to the proportionality of the party rules and Axelrod's uncanny model.

• Add-On's from State Conventions: 38 (projected out of 65 but you can move it to 33-32 if you want).

1982 is his probable projected number right now, it could be as high as 1986 but for this sake it is reasonable to say he will have 1982 by June 10th. That leaves 43 superdelegates out of the remaining 239. Now that does not include the 6 superdelegates about to announce in NC so this number can fall as low as 37 quite soon, falling even to 35 with PA's TBD pledged delegates.