4/29/08

More Wright, more superdelegates and more thoughts

Rev. Wright's self-destructive performance yesterday probably did Obama a favor, as Obama who is in the midst of totally distancing himself in a press conference right this afternoon. It appears he has severed any form of relationship with Wright. Wright was either deliberately throwing himself under the bus by being absolutely unrepentant politically or absolutely prophetic as a religious zealot in discussing a confrontational Liberation Theology to the national press is to be determined. Now whether there is a legitimate reason for what is called "liberation theology" where a segment of our national society or the global society where there to be a needs a liberation from another segment of those societies is a legitimate question. Be it what it may, that discussion and underlying issue where America needs to coherently discuss it is also to be determined, whether that is possible rationally is another. In my view this whole issue that Wright was putting forward is actually no different than the than how the Abolitionists like John Brown tried before the 1860 election where Lincoln was far more pragmatic in his politics than the zealotry of the abolition movement professed.

On the tactical battlefront in securing those delegates Obama picked up THREE more superdelegates today making the score 10-3 Obama's way since the Pennsylvania Primary. Kentucky's Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY), has endorsed and will make a public announcement today. Also included is DNC Chairman Mark Kirk (D-MA) who's public announcement placed him in the hard count. Not to be overlooked is Iowa's Richard Machacek (DNC-IA) . This on the heals of NM's Senator Bingaman yesterday in contrast to Clinton's lone endorsement, NC's Gov. Mike Easley (D-NC) . The hard count now is now at 238 for Obama to Clinton's 257.

Obama has now closed the gap to less than 20 superdelegates. Regarding publicly elected Democratic leaders Obama holds the lead in Governor's (14-11), U.S. Senators (18-13), while in U.S. Rep's Clinton still maintains a (77-75) lead where overall Obama leads by three. Also two DNC Add-On superdelegates were selected from Arizona and New Mexico and both remain uncommitted. There are 76 Add-On's, many still be be named where 64 remain uncommitted, Obama leads in those who have declared (8-4). Lastly Obama picked up another Iowa district pledged delegate yesterday as even though the Clinton campaign attempted to join with Edwards to keep a delegate viable, it failed so Obama now enjoys another pickup.


Bob's Daily Math, how close is Obama really!

  • Obama Pledged Delegates: 1499
  • Obama hard count superdelegates: 238
  • Obama unofficial soft count superdelegates: 6
  • Obama projected through primary season 205 (note 3 less now from IN)
  • Pelosi majority of pledged delegates vote: 11
  • Total projected gathered: 1959
  • Magic number: 66 new endorsement superdelegates or newly gathered pledged delegates through convention process.
Potential delegates to be picked up.
  • 235 remaining uncommitted named superdelegates
  • 62 Add-On superdelegates some to be named at State Conventions (plus 2 for MI)
  • 19 remaining pledged Edwards delegates
  • 203 pledged delegates projected to Clinton in upcoming primaries.
Projected pickup's:
  • 10 of 19 Edwards delegates (reduce magic number to 63)
  • 31 of 62 Add-On's to be named (reduce magic number to 32
Probable number of hard count superdelegate pickup's = 25 to clinch the nomination

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