5/5/08

UPDATE(2): TWO MORE----Thank you sir, may we have another! Superdelegate(s)

Late yesterday the Obama campaign picked up another superdelegate endorsement with Native American Indian Advocate, Kayln Free, (DNC-OK), bringing Obama to 253 to Clinton's 268. Last night had an interesting conversation with one of my old college buddies who likes to chide and belittle anything that is not in his narrow reactionary world view where upon he exhaustingly stated that Clinton is going to switch all these Obama endorsements and steal the nomination. The thing is that is absolutely stunning at these superdelegate endorsements, not one, not a single exception has an Obama superdelegate switched while Clinton has had over 25 switch or move to the uncommitted since January.

What does this tell you? One thing is that I know is that the Obama campaign is far better being run than the Clinton campaign. I am certain that Clinton in their rush for Super Tuesday and the inevitable coronation of her candidacy rushed many luke warm to ambivalent endorsements which has now paid a heavy price. Since Super Tuesday Clinton has gained a big 7 net endorsements. Since March it has regrouped to 21 but still only a net seven from February.

What to watch for today, Mark Ambinder is saying that a rumor exists that Obama is going to pick up several Representative endorsements today. Stay tuned....

One last thing, Colorado Congressional District 6 held its Convention over the weekend and it went as projected, Obama 3 pledged delegates to 2 for Clinton, one Obama alternate. One thing of note, there were over 43 uncovered delegate seats from the two counties, Adams & Douglas. Alternates could have been seated. Congratulations to Robert Kihm, Marzette Bedford-Billinghurst, & Paula Noonan plus Carmine Iadarola as the alternate.

UPDATE: Obama campaign announced two more Maryland superdelegate endorsements today,
Party chairman Michael Cryor (DNC-MD) and Vice chairman Lauren Dugas Glover (DNC-MD), while a rumor exists that more Maryland superdelegates where party
officials said this morning that a few more of the state's uncommitted superdelegates, including state Del. Heather R. Mizeur might also announce their decisions today. Also due to the election of Don Caxayoux (D-LA) in Louisiana this weekend, where he also endorsed Obama makes a net three today for Obama. Clinton picked up two Guam supedelegates, Taling Taitano (DNC-GU) and Jaime Rubino (DNC-GU). This now puts Obama at 256 to Clinton's 268 or a difference of 12, this is the closest Obama has been since the start of the campaign! My magic number hard count of projected delegates needed to clinch the nomination is 30 which includes expected Add-On's, & Pelesi Pledged to winner of the pledged delegate contest.
UPDATE (2) Clinton picked up another superdelegate abroad today with Theresa Morelli (DNC-DA), moving here total up to 269, HOWEVER....it is expected that Obama will gather another off shore endorsement later today or tomorrow as Guam Democratic Party Chairman Tony Charfauros yesterday said he is about to appoint either Sen. Benjamin Cruz or attorney Mike Phillips to a vacant superdelegate position -- the party's "committee man" position. Cruz and Philips are both Obama supporters but now there is a report that he has changed his mind and is either going to appoint himself or Senator Ben Pangelinan. More to come.


There is a new wrinkle brewing to compromise Florida is seated based on January election, but not Michigan but with a penalty in that Florida's pledged delegates get ½ vote, superdelegate get a full vote. This option would give Clinton +19 net pledged delegate votes, and +4 net superdelegates (+ 33 delegates), with 14 Florida superdelegates uncommitted, cutting Obama's current lead from 130 to 107 votes. I think Obama would jump on if the timing were right meaning that if things go as projected he wins by 5 to 9 points in NC and either barely wins or loses in IN the delegate haul will be split basically 202 to 202 going forward. In this scenerio Obama will gain on the superdelegates or at least have a trade super for super. Essentially this would clinch the nomination and why calling Clinton's bluff on this would put her in the box. This is how I think the party gets out of the pickle where the nomination is determined, Florida is sat and then Michigan too is sat with a 1/2 penalty, but the nomination is settled.

Stay tuned.

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