Instability STUPID, plus Palin trepidations, Electoral Map's moving and the local scene

GOOD MORNING....COLORADO!
We are now not a toss up state, gosh I was feeling like a salad for a long time living in virtual political Gettysburg or is it Stalingrad---as in 199 days. The bottom line for this state is that it is now a Obama leaning state even though it currently has more Republican registered voters than Democratic---that said it also has more Independents and they are falling for Obama.

INSTABILITY STUPID?
Today as the analysts begin to make hay or use gray matter over the last 14 days from, now infamous quote of "THE ECONOMY IS SOLID" to today's $700B of the rich and hidden the consensus is that the UNDECIDED's among the electorate are falling towards Obama because of instability as in how unstable the Republican ticket is emotionally and intellectually. I love metaphors or analogies so a good one is how opponents reacted when they were on the verge of being routed by a Bob Knight Indiana University Basketball Team. Bob's teams would expose an opponent's weakness in this case McCain's campaign is all story and no substance. Story meaning that all they have are personal (and mostly fictional) storylines of their candidates, personalities like those publicist stories of former movie stars. When confronted with reality the glare of reality exposes their shallow and even incompetent view of actual governing.

Here is Josh Marshall's take:

I've seen several articles over the weekend arguing that Barack Obama's recent move up in the polls is due to the renewed attention on the economy, particularly the financial crisis which has taken on a renewed urgency over the last ten days. I don't doubt this is true to a substantial degree. But looking at the arc of the tracking polls, particularly the second half of last week, I'm wondering if a big part of the gap isn't due to McCain's increasingly erratic and craven behavior -- the now almost legendary campaign 'suspension' non-suspension being the best example.

--Josh Marshall

PALIN TREPIDATIONS

THIS JUST BREAKING

Buried near the end of today's column from Howard Kurtz, where he is discussing Sarah Palin's horrendous interview with Katie Couric, was this interesting tidbit:

And the worst may be yet to come for Palin; sources say CBS has two more responses on tape that will likely prove embarrassing.

Given the outrageously uneducated and uninformed sophomoric answers she gave on her state's proximity to Russia, given her foreign policy experience, or what she said about the soon to be $700B bailout on Wall Street, could there really be something else? How much worse? And then the other natural question this leads to is: WTF is CBS waiting for? Why haven't they aired the entire tape? Regardless they will have to now!

This campaign's narrative came through this morning where on Joe Scarborough they commented on George Stephanopoulos's questioning of McCain on Sunday's THIS WEEK; when they talked about how McCain failed to look Obama in the eye at all during the debate. They said it is more than odd and David Gregory stated that it was possibly the McCain camp attempting tap down McCain's problem with temper. McCain said he was looking at the moderator and writing and wouldn't acknowledge an obvious body language faux pas. This one has legs.

The Palin situation continues to brew like a low boil soup pot on the back burner. She is absolutely not qualified for a national politician, but that is who they chose so they are doing everything possible to block and tackle for her. Today on FOX with Friends McCain talking head Nancy Pfotenhauer, (a former Koch Industries Right Wing spokesperson---a true National Socialist family in America), warned Gwen Iffill:

The McCain camp is saying that veep debate moderator Gwen Ifill "will have to answer for herself if she asks too many foreign policy questions Thursday night".

ANSWER TO WHOM?

The most ironic moment of the weekend was McCain having to explain that Palin was incorrect in agreeing with Obama over Pakistan and Al Qaeda policy. McCain was then mad that reporters were recording comments she was making to people on the street about policy matters. Come on John----what are you really mad at---another ding to your lies or that Palin is so guarded she is like the Romanoff Family?

Of course Palin is so juicy that Saturday Night Live just can't contain itself as they opened with another skit of Palin. Can you guess what they will do after what is being anticipated as a SNL skit for real this coming Thursday Night? Ironically CNN's Reliable Sources couldn't resist either yesterday morning when they discussed how SNL's portrayals were fair and becoming embedded into the cultural veins.

The thing is now she is being hunkered down in McCain's Arizona ranch and it is being characterized as Debate Camp. Is it kind of like how parents sent their kids to summer camp to get rid of them for part of the summer or are they sequesting her like a Romanoff?

(CNN)– Gov. Sarah Palin will now spend two and a half days near Sedona, Arizona, to prepare for Thursday's debate, instead of prepping in St Louis, as originally planned.

Sarah Palin will be at John McCain's rustic creek side home outside Sedona for what a top aide calls "debate camp."

The aide, who's part of the team prepping Palin, tells CNN they decided to take her to debate camp there because it is an "invigorating and enjoyable place to prepare for Thursday."

"SP [Sarah Palin] loves it and has her kids and Todd coming," wrote the aide in an email.

The aide said "John McCain himself came up with the idea after thinking it would be great before his next debate.

Pailin has already been hunkered down for four days in a Philadelphia hotel for debate prep with advisers.

She will take a short break Monday to attend a rally with McCain in Ohio, before heading to Arizona.

MOVING ELECTORAL MAPS
The results are that the Electoral Maps are moving in Obama's way not unlike how he grinded out a victory in the nominating process. Volunteering with the campaign my colleague and I have commented that going back to last year the campaign has always done things correctly. The biggest thing was staying focused on what actually wins nominations and elections----delegates. Currently the maps are moving in directions as the we get withing 5 weeks of the final voting day. This is what the state polls add up as the math (or map) picture emerges:

Chuck Todd and MSNBC's political team crunched the polls illustrating how the electoral map is now in favor of Obama, with a couple of real surprises:

Four new states have been added to our Toss-up category, 3 (2004) Red states & 1 Blue state. This gives Obama a 212-174 edge, after his more narrow 233-227 lead last week.

• Florida
• Indiana
  
• North Carolina
• Virginia
  
• Nevada
• Colorado
  
• Pennsylvania
• Wisconsin

What is interesting is that New Hampshire is now becoming a strong Obama lean along with Michigan and Minnesota joining New Mexico and Iowa. McCain cannot win without Michigan, North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia even with Florida and Ohio. The grind is on and as Joe Scarborough the former Republican Congressman from Florida said today, this appears to be looking like a defeat.

Real Clear Politics has it where Colorado is now a definite leaner for Obama along with Washington State, Michigan, New Mexico and New Jersey. That said here are the combination polls from the toss up states:

Virginia (Obama 1.8, most recent Obama +5)

Pennsylvania (Obama 4.4, most recent Obama +4, this one is close to moving to leaning)

New Hampshire (Obama 1.3, spread most recent Obama +4, see above leaning)

Michigan (Obama +3.8, spread most recent Obama +6)

North Carolina (Obama +0.3, most recent Obama +2)

Colorado (Obama +5.4, most recent Obama +4)

States where McCain is losing ground but still lead:

• Indiana (McCain +2.3, most recent McCain +2)
• Florida (McCain +1.6, most recent McCain +1)
• Ohio (McCain +1.2, most recent McCain +1)
• Nevada (McCain 1.7, most recent McCain +1)
• Missouri (McCain 3.2, most recent McCain +1)
  

LOCALLY SPEAKING....don't vote in El Paso Electronic Machines!

Locally the issue is voter fraud. A stunning article in this week's Independent should send shivers down the spine of any citizen.

Like the electronic voting machines he programs for El Paso County, John Gardner gives the impression of dependability. Clean-cut with a receding hairline, he sounds confident and authoritative answering questions through most of a 40-minute interview with the Independent.

"Whatever's in my personnel file," he says.

The portion of Gardner's personnel file released to the Independent does not give that information. What it does show, however, is that when Gardner applied for the job of information systems manager in June, he wrote on his application that he had studied architecture for four years at Montana State University without getting a degree.

That differs from what he wrote on his application in 2001, when he was hired for his first stint as information systems manager for the clerk and recorder's office. On that application, he claimed a bachelor's degree in architecture from Montana State after six years of study, though he didn't give a graduation date.

It also differs from application materials he submitted to the Colorado secretary of state's office in 2005, when he applied for the voting-machine testing job that ended up taking him away from the county. In those, his résumé said he graduated in 1992, and his official state application — which carries a warning that giving false information is a criminal offense — gave the date as 1993.

At the secretary of state's office, Gardner quickly became head of the program for testing voting machines. His performance drew heavy criticism from voting activists, and he wound up playing a central role in a 2006 lawsuit about flaws with the testing system.

At that point, Gardner said in sworn testimony that he graduated in 1994.

Gardner didn't budge this week from claiming he has a degree, insisting he made a mistake on his 2008 application. But he can't explain how that could have happened.

"That could be just an error," he says.

A conversation with Bonnie Ashley, associate registrar at Montana State University, suggests otherwise. She confirms Gardner was a student there in the early 1990s, but after searching multiple databases, says, "I did not find a record of any degree awarded to Mr. Gardner."...

...

But credibility certainly is required. In the second-most populous county in a swing state, in a presidential election year, Gardner is the lead tech guy responsible for making sure voting machines work correctly.

After learning of the discrepancies Wednesday morning, Dennis Hisey, chair of the El Paso County Board of County Commissioners, says he wants to learn more.

"If in fact he does not have a degree," Hisey says, "that's a problem."

Gardner hesitates only briefly when told about the registrar's comment.

"Uh, I don't know without talking to them," he says.

Bob Balink, El Paso County clerk and recorder, insisted that Terry Sholdt, the chief deputy clerk, attend Gardner's Independent interview Monday afternoon. Sholdt says little during most of the interview, but does note that she's unaware of discrepancies between Gardner's two county applications.

When questions related to Gardner's inconsistencies on official documents — and what seems at least a possible case of perjury — come up, Sholdt refers questions to Balink.

...

Around 5:30 Monday night, Balink's office sends out a press release related to election fraud. Within the next couple hours, he responds to Independent inquiries only via quick notes from his Blackberry.

"I haven't had a chance to meet with Terry or discuss the mtg you had with them as that isn't a priority," he writes just before 7, adding, "we're gearing up for an election — we're still working tonight — this election is our focus right now."

By Tuesday morning, Balink is featured in a KKTV News Channel 11 report as blaming "radical liberal groups" for submitting fraudulent registrations during the voter registration drives they hold every presidential election year.

While giving interviews Tuesday to other media outlets, and responding to at least one citizen frustrated by his KKTV interview (Balink replies by saying his "liberal" comment was quoting from a book), Balink delays an interview with the Independent about possible fraud in application materials submitted by his information systems manager.

He responds late Tuesday night to e-mailed questions from the Independent, answering a list of concerns about Gardner's degree status with a simple comment: "WE DO NOT HAVE KNOWLEDGE OF ANY FACTS OF A VILATION [sic] OF LAW OR POLICY, EITHER COUNTY OR STATE THAT WOULD REQUIRE SEPARATIN [sic] OF EMPLOYMENT FROM EL PASO COUNTY."

Gardner and Balink started working together in early 2003, after Balink was elected clerk and recorder the previous November. The diehard Republican has been vocal on election issues, for instance urging lawmakers to pass a law requiring would-be voters to show photo identification before registering.

Gardner had been in his information systems manager position since August 2001. Previously, he had done IT work for an architecture firm and had become a "Microsoft certified professional" after taking a four- or five-month training course. Though he had no experience with elections, motor vehicle certification or other functions of the clerk and recorder's office, he saw the county job as a good opportunity.

"Just like any job, you kind of learn the various aspects of the industry as you go," he says. "It wasn't, 'Gosh, I really have an interest in elections,' it was, 'I really have an interest in information systems, [and] I'd like to work for the government ... because I think this is a good place to serve the community and just the type of job that I'm interested in.'"

Performance reviews filled out by Sholdt show Gardner quickly got the hang of things after a shaky start.

...

Gardner's deposition leading up to the September 2006 trial took three days. Paul Hultin, lead attorney in the lawsuit, questioned Gardner about his experience, education and preparation.

After swearing to tell the truth, Gardner said he finished high school in New York in 1987 (which would probably put him around 40 years old today). He asserted repeatedly under oath that he graduated from Montana State in 1994.

...

"Do you have any technical training in computer security?" Hultin asked.

"Not to my knowledge, no," Gardner replied.

"Do you have any technical training in the evaluation of computer systems?"

"I don't believe so."

The full transcript from the deposition runs about 700 pages. Hultin questioned Gardner about cases in which he used his "judgment" to pass voting systems. Hultin showed that the testing process, which followed rules largely written by Gardner, did not have minimum standards for the machines to pass.

Denver District Judge Lawrence Manzanares ruled Sept. 22, 2006, that the tests were inadequate...
...

Reached at his Denver office this week, Hultin says it would represent an "outrageous fabrication" if Gardner did not in fact graduate from Montana State University.

"I think this further undermines any shred of credibility about the certification work Gardner did on electronic voting systems in 2006, 2007 and 2008," he says.