3/11/08

Colorado County Conventions seeing some atrophy to Obama's raw vote


This should have been anticipated where even it has gone national on two blogs, (Daily Kos and Talking Points Memo), but as Colorado caucuses go forward into the County Convention's Obama delegations are atrophying potentially having an effect when the national delegates are voted upon from the Congressional Districts. Early returns in Adams County state that their polarity fell from 55%-45% in the raw vote to a 50%-50% split---meaning Obama's projected state delegates fell from 173-142 to 157 a piece, (not certain who gets the additional delegate).

Fortunately Adams County Congressional District delegation is split, 219 going to CD-2 and joining Boulder, Jefferson big delegations with the smaller county delegations of Broomfield, Clear Creek, Eagle, Gilpin, Grand, and Summit counties. Boulder (376) and Jefferson (63) have their county conventions this weekend. The loss of 15 delegates to the CD or the State Convention should prove to marginal in that Boulder and Jefferson held raw vote margins in excess of 65% where a 4-2 national delegate outcome still should result.


In Douglas County the delegate preference vote fell to 61%-39% against the raw vote of 63%-37% on caucus night dropping the take from an expected 129 to 126 (126-79). ---meaning that Obama lost 3 delegates to CD-6's Assembly and the State Convention. Again Douglas' marginal loss will probably not be noticed where Jefferson (199)and Arapahoe (356) Counties splits join Elbert and Park Counties where a a 3-2 edge should hold but it is within site of a 4-1 win.

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