3/7/08

Like Nevada, Obama appears to have won Texas in the delegate count 98-to-95 plus 2 more superdelegates commit!


As the caucus count comes to a close in the infamous Texas 2-Step Primary/Caucus
NPR's Watching Washington online post is reporting that the Obama campaign appears to have won the caucus delegate cache of 37-to-30 and thereby winning Texas 98-to-95 in total. By squeaking by with a 50% primary win Clinton originally held a 65-to-61 (4 delegate) advantage but because the caucus hybrid her lead evaporated, primarily due to the Republican cross-over motivated by what some describe as Rush Limbaugh's effort. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that in "The Limbaugh Effect on Clinton's Texas Win"

According to exit polls, Clinton won a notably higher number of Republican voters than she has in past open primary contests. Of the 9% of voters who identified themselves as Republicans in the Democratic Primary, Obama still edged Clinton 53%-46%. However, that margin is significantly slimmer than earlier contests. In Wisconsin’s open primary, for instance, Republicans broke 72%-28% for Obama. Similarly, in Virginia’s open primary, Obama was favored 72%-23%.
The net effect is probably 48,000 +/- votes that Clinton gained because of those who voted for Clinton motivated by Limbaugh. It is unknown whether they merely added to Clinton's total of 1,458,000 (bringing her down to 1,410,000 and lowering the margin of victory to 50,000) and possibly a delegate or two or changing a potential Obama vote to Clinton, more unlikely. The thing is that Limbaugh had a measurable effect.

All told March 4th Clinton's big night continues to shrink when it comes to delegate count. When Rhode Island (12-to-8 for Clinton) and Ohio (74-to-65 for Clinton) are then combined with Vermont (9-to-6 for Obama) with the projected delegate count in Texas (98-to-95 for Obama) are figured the total win for Clinton is seven. In short it eliminates states and pushes Obama closer to the nomination.

Today early reports have it that both the Obama and Clinton campaigns have announced superdelegate commitments, both from California. For Obama it is Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker (DNC-CA), while the Clinton camp picked up the commitment of Aleita Huguenin (DNC-CA)
California Democratic Party vice-chair and superdelegate Alexandra Gallardo-Rooker committed her vote to Obama about eight months ago and says her vote will stay the same even though Hillary Clinton won the state's primary election. She says superdelegates are not intended to thwart the will of voters -- in fact, just the opposite.
"And I think the grass roots are speaking louder and louder all the time, and the voters and I think ... we'll do the will of the people at the end of the day," she said.

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