of turnout and their response was indifference ignorance---"They simply didn't know, nor care." Within a week there seemed to panic knowing that the facilities they had secured to hold a democratic process would be inadequate, as well as their training of party volunteers to manage those meetings was wholly underwhelming. When they appointed an old timer official to oversee a 13-precinct Caucus location the House District Chairperson who should have been assigned except that he was the Volunteer Leader of the Obama Campaign and I his able lieutenant we feared the oncoming chaos. She then told us in all confidence that she would show up a 1/2 hour beforehand and it would be a breeze.That
week I fortunately got the facilities switched where we got the cafeteria and the GOP the library when I truthfully terrorized the school administrators that we were expecting 300-400 to show up and the library held 75. That evening Mike and I showed up two hours previous to the start time and got things organized. By 6 PM we had over a hundred voters and by the time the location manager showed up we had over 200 processed and another 100 or so in lines. She freaked out and we had to silently inform her that this was a mutiny and we had it covered.This ignorance I have seen throughout the election from news reporting to party and nominating processes and basic election processes. Why, because people are actually paying attention and they are motivated. Last night was another example as much of America tuned in presumably to see a car wreck like the Indy-500 but found a genuine political debate. When it was done the assessments began and to the surprise of the media and their pundits, America has stated that the boring, driven policy wok Joe Biden won in their minds and not the pundits. They all called it a tie but from the early polls of CBS and CNN Biden was the clear winner.
CNN: Though her performance during the 90-minute debate surprised many who were hoping of some gaffe, but a CNN poll showed that debate had done little to help her image with only 36 per cent of respondents favouring her against 51 per cent for Biden.
CBS News and Knowledge Networks have conducted a nationally representative poll of 473 uncommitted voters to get their immediate reaction to tonight's vice presidential debate. Forty-six percent of the uncommitted voters surveyed say Democrat Joe Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Republican Sarah Palin. Thirty-three percent said it was a tie.Today the on line polls albeit unscientifically sampled are so big a universe they also demonstrate how people view events like these in respective audiences. In each of these polls Biden is said to have won except for the Drudge Report and CO Springs KRDO.
Eighteen percent of previously uncommitted percent say they are now committed to the Obama-Biden ticket. Ten percent say they are now committed to McCain-Palin. Seventy-one percent are still uncommitted.
So what gives? History repeats itself until it doesn't. Meaning this year politically history is not repeating itself. Consequently in the final analysis why Biden even though Palin didn't fall flat on her face in St. Louis? She offered no substance, no genuine policy difference merely the persuasion technique a sales executive does when trying to sell something that does not possess what the customer now wants. She talked in circles, exclaimed more tax cuts and empty philos that we want government out of the way while most people now inherently know that government---good government---is the only path to solution because the government is us.
McCain Campaign Disconnects
Yesterday the McCain campaign announced it was pulling out of Michigan to conce
ntrate on Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. Interestingly these were the states that Bush won in 2004 while coincidentally not mentioning New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Iowa or Minnesota. Now the math just doesn't add up. Bush won three Inner Mountain States; New Mexico & Iowa (now being locked up or a loss of 12 votes) plus Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina and (29 electoral votes). With this math McCain cannot win. Right now the electoral vote watchers have Obama here:IN THE BANK (STRONG DEM SUPPORT)States trending to Locks (Weak Dem Support)
- CA(55), NY (31), IL (21), NJ(15), MA(12), MD(10), CT(7) IA (7), OR(7), NH(4), HI(4), RI(4), DE(3), DC(3) = 182 Electoral Votes
STATES LEANING TO OBAMA (battleground states trending to Obama)
- PA(21), MI(17), WA(11), WI(10), MN(10), NM(5), ME(4) = 78 votes
STATE that is a TOSS UP
- FL(27), OH(20), VA(13), CO(9), NV(5), NH(4) = 78 votes
STATES LEANING TO McCAIN (new battleground states trending away from McCain)
- NC(15)
STATES trending to McCain Locks (Weak Rep Support)
- IN(11), MO(11) = 22 votes
STATES in the Bank for McCain (Strong Republican Support)
- TX(34), GA(15), MS(6), WV(5), MT(3) = 63 votes
- TN(11), AZ(10), AL(9), LA(9), KY(8), SC(8), OK(7), AR(6), KS(6), UT(5), NE(5), ID(4), SD(3), ND(3), WY(3), AK(3) = 100 votes
Right now McCain could consider he has 163 votes and if IN and MO where he holds 1-2 point leads fal
l away where is he going to pick up any support? Even if he narrowly wins IN & MO that brings him to 185 electoral votes and 85 votes short. If he prevails in a recount in NC it brings him to 200 or 70 short. Now those are three of the states he mentioned he was concentrating. Then he has to run the table on these states: OH, FL, VA (60 votes) and still ten votes short. This is why they are focused on PA which is now trending to a lock to Obama. He could try to win in WI or MN and that would provide him exactly 270.But here is the trouble with the math, there can be no losses in MO, IN, NC, OH, FL, VA, or PA in gaining 117 votes. It appears that CO, NM, or NV does not matter by themselves. But my guess is that as the try in Pennsylvania to turn things around as it is a state demographically they think they might exploit with racism and Catholics. Here is the problem to their mythology:
Pennsylvania PollsSo what is the math telling you. McCain like Hillary Clinton's math is inevitable without a stunning game changing event. This is why Fivethirtyeight.com/ is saying that if the current trend continues Obama will win in what will be considered a MANDATE---331 electoral votes to McCain 207. So in reality Obama's campaign has corraled McCain into three states he needs to play offense (OH, PA & FL), one that he is trending badly and one that is dripping through his fingers. In four other states where he was unprepared he must play defense, (NC, MO, IN & VA) where I don't think they got their cheating ways embedded in. Because of this they are leaving their flanks open in CO, NM and NV. So when Pennsylvania fails to respond will then McCain come looking to Nevada and Colorado in is rash, almost knee jerk last gasp reaction.Florida Polls
- Morning Tracking Poll Obama 50% McCain 41%
- Quinnipeac Obama 54% McCain 39%
- FOX/Rasmussen Obama 51% McCain 42%
- CNN/TIME Obama 51% McCain 47%
- Quinnipeac Obama 51% McCain 43%
- FOX/Rasmussen Obama 47% McCain 47%
What to expect in PA, VA and probably CO, IN, MO, OH, FL and NC. Bible belt scorched earth culture tactics. Rev Wright all over again---except thank you to Hillary for innoculating them already. This will fall on deaf ears except to his 33% base. Then there will be the abortion ads, which are already being run in Virginia---baby killers. There will be all sorts of cultural fear mongering, from teachers politicking in the class rooms to Supreme Court fears and sex education. With this last gasp move we will see the last of McCain's reputation.
POLL WATCHING IN EL PASO COUNTY COLORADO
Yesterday I made my phone call to the Elections department to get an update on the voter registrations. El Paso County is the second largest voting county in Colorado but old trends are changing where for years there were two registered Republicans for every Democrat. A small trend began in the beginning of the year where by far the monopoly of the local Republican Party on registrating voters has been stemmed. The Secretary of State reports the following:
Or you can translate the following:
....................Rep's.......... Dem's ...........Unaffiliated
1/25/08...... 153,532 ......68,689 ..........108,406
6/30/08 ......155,558...... 72,590...........112,630
7/31/08...... 157,047....... 74,774..........113,699
9/02/08...... 157,998....... 75,241..........112,665
10/02/08.... 163,203........ 81,881..........119,085
% ..................44.6%..........22.2%...........32.5%
Ttl Voters 365, 899............ (9% increase)
....................Rep's.............. Dem's.......... Unaffilied's
06/30/08... + 2026........... +3901............. +4224
7/30/08..... +1489............ +2184............. +1069
09/02/08.... +957............... +469............. (- 1034)
10/02.08.... +5205............. +6640.............. +6420
Total.......... +9677............ +13194............. +10679
% increase.. +6%................. +17%................. + 9%
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