Part One of the Ground Game coming to an end---Obama winning the Voter Registration Battle

Today at the time of this posting I will be turning in my ballot, an early vote for the IL Senator Barack Obama for President. (Link to the CO-El Paso County sample ballot here.) As the acclaimed rock band, The Grateful Dead titled one of their few pop singles, "What a Long Strange Trip its Been", this Campaign for real Change has been as strange as the lyrical story described by the late Jerry Garcia in song. The campaign has meshed so many components within our collective human paths. Like the majority of its record number of volunteers who are mostly white, middle-aged college-educated, many previously inactive voters--some of them even sporadic or occassional voters and yet surprisingly motivated and capable. While on the other hand teh campaign's biggest share of this year's electorate are young voters, some being first timers who are under the age of 35.

Strange in that Obama, with his Arabic surname, African-American immigrant father and lower middle class white American mother being the most strangest of pedigree backgrounds for an American President. History tells us that, by in large, most American Presidents are descendents of an English ancestry, often geneologies going back to pre-Revolution years. Yet this is the 21st Century and a third voting generation since the advent of the age of television. This is why the Hillary camp in its last gasp of political campaign narratives where they attempted to describe Obama as a figure that was "not one of us" and thereby risky. Now the final 30 days of a losing McCain Campaign is taking a similar tack, as a last desperate measure to turn a national decision that is predicated by substantive policy and governing change to one of personal character on the negative.

Tomorrow for many states like Colorado voter registration will end, locking in the voter universe where the campaign noticably will shift on the ground from capacity building, persuasion and voter gathering to final persuasion and GET OUT THE VOTE. (Mine will be in as with many others so with each passing day that universe shrinks regardless of the debates, advertisements, speeches, or external events can take away or change those votes---not even death, so vote early if you are smart.) With that it appears certain that the Obama Campaign, supported by the Democratic Party has won the new voter registration battle. The Washington Post Reports in their Sunday edition:

In the past year, the rolls have expanded by about 4 million voters in a dozen key states -- 11 Obama targets that were carried by George W. Bush in 2004 (Ohio, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico) plus Pennsylvania, the largest state carried by Sen. John Kerry that Sen. John McCain is targeting.

• Florida Democrat registration gains this year are more than double those made by the GOP where 800,000 voters have been added, 316,000 Democrats to 129,000 GOP while 155,000 became independents.
• Colorado it is 4-to-1, Democratic registration was up by 80,000, exceeding the gain of 28,000 unaffiliated voters and 21,000 Republicans.
• Nevada also the ratio is 4-to-1, where they have added 91,000 people to the rolls, where now the GOP trails the Democrats by 81,000.
• North Carolina it is 6-to-1, Democrats adding 208,000 voters the GOP bringing in 34,000 voters and 148,000 new independents. A disproportionate share of the new voters here are minorities, 01/01.08 white voters outnumbered blacks 4-to-1, and Hispanic voters 10-to-1, yet 146,000 black and Hispanic voters were added representingd nearly 75% of the growth among white voters.
• In Virginia with nonpartisan registration, the trend is clear --310,000 new voters, a disproportionate share live in Democratic strongholds, where increases of 10% in Arlington County, Alexandria, Norfolk, Newport News and Richmond, which combined have added 58,000 voters.
• In Pennsylvania there were 474,000 new Democrats added to the rolls -- while the GOP rolls actually lost 38,000 voters. Back in 2004, there were 357,000 Democrats added and 66,000 Republicans.
• In Missouri, registration is also nonpartisan, roughly 200,000 new registrations this year in greater St. Louis and suburban St. Louis County now leaning Democratic and 20% of the state's vote.
• New Mexico, (Bush won by 6,000 votes in 2004), Democrats have added 40,000 voters since last year, compared with 12,000 Republicans.
• Michigan has registered an increase of 160,000 voters this year.

The Obama campaign says it expects the numbers of new voters in swing states to swell even more later this month as elections offices process the tens of thousands of registrations still pouring in. "This a lesson we learned. The old-fashioned way of registering voters was to stand on the corner of the street, stand on the campus quad and register one by one, which we still do," said Jon Carson, the campaign's national field director. "But another important component is getting people the information they need to participate."

Other compliments to the Obama Campaign efforts are organizations that have been registering hundreds of thousands on their own, such as Democracia USA, (registrating Hispanic voters), ACORN (focusing on poverty stricken areas), Women's Voices, (seeking out the women vote specifically the unmarried) and Move On, finding progressives and disenfranchised liberals. Overall, on the whole this year's registration results are part of a broader shift since the last election and away from the Republican Party, particularly among younger and Hispanic voters and among college-educated professionals, especially in previous GOP strongholds such as in states like New Hampshire, Colorado, and the suburbs of Philadelphia and Northern Virginia.

The Obama campaign predicts that 80 percent of the voters it is registering will support the Democrat, and that 75 percent will turn out, a rate it bases on turnout during the primaries. That means that for every 100,000 voters it registers, it would net a 45,000-vote edge on Election Day. Gary Pearce, the North Carolina consultant, speculated that this year's election might shatter some of those expectations, based on the energy he is seeing and the reach of Obama's get-out-the-vote operation there. "It's the enthusiasm gap," he said. He added: "They'll get a lot of them out on Election Day. I'm not an organization guy -- I'm skeptical of the people who think the organization is going to turn it all. But they've made me a believer."

TRANSLATED IT ALL MEANS---OBAMA IS LEADING

Don't count any chickens just yet but what the external polling doesn't tell you what internal voter contact data does is reflected in campaign behavior and not words. Last week we witnessed McCain abandon Michigan after having concentrated on the state, even holding its first campaign stop there after their RNC Convention. I wondered why they weren't contesting Minnesota either as recent polls showed a close race. Well it appears that their internals were reflected in the most recent poll conducted by the Minneapolis Star Tribune that has Obama up 55% to 37% in a traditional strong Democratic state. Well that told me why he didn't move any resources there.

Well on the Sunday talk show circuit Karl Rove held that Obama held a 273 electoral lead in the projected FOX News Map. On NBC's Meet the Press Chuck Todd held that Obama had 264 electoral votes, (Karl is giving Colorado to Obama while NBC is holding out that it remains a toss up).

What is strange is that the McCain campaign sent Sarah "I have to get back to you" Palin to Nebraska which is another Red State that has not been contested since William Jennings Bryan. is it because Nebraska splits its electoral votes by Congressional district, and the Obama camp has been making a play for this area especially in Omaha. Actions speak louder than words!

Finally the Palin soap opera now begins to turn the page with some more SNL material brewing, (the best comedy skit yet) . It appears that Palin failed to pay income taxes on per diem receipts she charged the State of Alaska for working at home. It is only $17,000 but then again one IRS expert stated:

"This is a lady who screams about everyone in federal government taking advantage, and she's taking every advantage she can," said Sheldon Cohen, IRS commissioner in the Johnson administration. "They are milking every possible deduction. They have a right to, if it's legitimate. The question is, is he in the racing business or is it a hobby?" (Reference to husband's snowmobile racing where odd Palin had total receipts from the fishing and snowmachine racing of: Todd Palin offset his $17,000 gross receipts for snowmachine racing by claiming $10,858 in depreciation, $2,425 for car and truck expenses and $1,559 for supplies. An additional $11,405 was claimed for "other," which included fuel, entry fees, equipment parts, repairs and maintenance, cell phone, memberships, "sponsorship apprec" and "gear." in 2006 he claimed $48,082 in income but after deductions his net income was $10,164.

Oh but there is more on the "Maverick Game" Palin. (BTW a debate drinking game has arisen in America where you must take a drink everytime Palin mentions maverick.) It appears that Trooper-gate investigation will continue where now Alaska employees are being compeled to honor the subpoenas:

On the heels of the dismissal of the Alaska attorney general's suit to quash subpoenas issued in the legislature's Trooper-Gate investigation, seven subpoenaed state employees who had previously said they would not cooperate with the probe have now agreed to testify.

From the Anchorage Daily News:

"Despite my initial concerns about the subpoenas, we respect the court's decision to defer to the Legislature," [Alaska Attorney General Talis] Colberg said. "We are working with Senator Hollis French to arrange for the testimony of the seven state employee plaintiffs."