How effective is a ground game?

Campaigns can spend oodles of cash on advertising where it gets much attention from media insiders but as time goes on psychologically most people tune out the bull sh$t. This morning my literal, attentive son was absolutely inattentive as I asked if one of the few McCain ads on the morning cable talk show lineup whether the McCain ad was negative? He said, "Dad I haven't paid attention to any ads for at the last couple of weeks, except Bidlack's because it has so many people from our church in them." In fact whenever the program we watch is on we scramble for the remote whenever a friggin TV commercial comes on and either depress the mute button or flash to another channel to avoid any and all commercials during this time.

So the waste of money spent must be enormous. That said I was told an interesting statistic regarding the ground game effect this weekend. The Obama campaign in Colorado holds that every voter they have contacted has expressed support for Obama at a 59% clip. Now this is not a small sample where the campaign has fanned out to make personal contact not with regular voting Democrats or even moderately regular voting Democrats but targeted sporadic voting Democrats, all unaffiliated voters (Independents) and specific targeted Republicans. This is neither a small universe nor an easy one which by all accounts is traditionally a Republican/conservative leaning voting universe in Colorado.

Therefore the political science claim that a traditional effective ground game political organization---meaning phone bank volunteers, walking canvass volunteers and voter registration volunteers, usually moves the voting bar 3-5%. But in this case it appears to be exceeding the high mark of 5% when you begin to figure in the persuasion universe contact rate of 59% support. This is not an easy task but the Obama campaign not only has done it well, it has done where they identified almost a thousand volunteer leads in just 20 precincts in Colorado Springs. These are individuals who expressed an initial willingness to volunteer from a contact with another Obama volunteer, either on the phone, at the door or attending an event like a house party. Now most contacts even though they might express support for Obama, they do not express a willingness to volunteer.

This is why yesterday I published the high probability the vote in El Paso County is far closer than anyone has imagined. This huge swing of Independent voters, touched the army of Obama volunteer, plus lazy voting Dems and cross over Republicans are piling up while the motivation and turnout in the McCain camp is atrophying. Thus this is why I think the ground game here Colorado will move the bar from 5% to 9% depending on locale.

In many ways what we have found is a reverse motion on enthusiasm for volunteer support in neighborhoods. Traditional Democratic leaning areas like Old Colorado City, Manitou Springs, Fountain, Security, Hillside and Nob Hill neighborhoods have had inconsistent or sporadic volunteer attendance and activities. While in contested areas like Colorado Springs upper and lower west sides, Old North Ends, Central City and even some East Side Neighborhoods volunteerism is robust and consistent. In areas considered almost uniform Republican like Briargate, Black Forest, Broodmoor, and even Monument has seen highly motivated small teams providing a huge impact where previous presence was never seen.

Now the ground game is migrating away from persuasion activities to early GOTV activities chasing Mail In ballot recipients and still moving registered voters to MIB status. At the same time they are organizing and preparing their entire volunteer force to take on the Election Day where they intend to contact every targeted voter that weekend and motivate and facilitate them to vote. It is not glamorous, nor is it reported on the Cable News channels but it is more effective than another crummy television commercial.