One week to go where most Americans will vote their future. In Colorado out of an estimated 4 Million voters who are besieged with the knowledge that our State is in play and could be a "decider", up to 1.6 Million votes are estimated to be cast before Tuesday morning. That is 40% of the vote and a dynamic that most of the media/press does not really have what it could mean. Well in one obvious thought is with each passing day a late October Surprise will have a corresponding lessening potential impact on the outcome. Another thought is that traditional voter manipulation and corruption tactics are reduced where causing long lines due to nefarious partisan efforts like running out of ballots or not having enough resources in targeted precincts have less impact.

Mail In Ballots are the new rage, where in El Paso County an estimated 150,000 or more will be distributed, (145,000 by October 21st). The Democratic Party increased their requests by 100% moving up to almost 43% of their base. The Republican Party increased their request from 38% to 42% county wide, while Unaffiliated's moved up to 30% from the low 20's. El Paso County now has 380,000 registered voters where the GOP hold 43% (down almost 2 percentage points), while Unaffiliated's 31.5% of the registered electorate and the Democratic Party possessing 22.5%. Subtly the Democrats used to be below 2-1 ratio with the GOP but now they are just above the 2-1 ratio.

Furthermore it is estimated that 30,000 to 35,000 Early Voters will try to make their will known with suspect electronic voting machines. Princeton U did a case study where they showed how to break into the machines, change the memory cards and close up in less than 7 minutes where they could pre-determine the vote even fooling the print outs. If anyone asks today is the last day to request a MIB and receive a paper ballot in early voting. Just a thought. Overall what this means is over 180,000 in El Paso County will have voted before November 1st when the campaigns go on a 96-hour marathon effort in what is known as GOTV. Meaning 200,000 potential votes are available on Tuesday, 53% which the turnout is far less than MIB results that are estimated to be over 90% turnout.

If a total 80% turnout is expected or 304,000 votes in total, than it is estimated 134,000 of the remaining 200,000 votes will be cast on Tuesday. El Paso County has said they have 170,000 available paper ballots for Tuesday. So if 100% turned than again 30,000 would be forced to use those suspect machines. But let us go back to reality. 134,000 voters means lines will be long and longer. This will be interesting and I think if any of you went to the caucuses, county conventions or even the State Conventions you will experience similar chaos, frustration and fatique.

Now the ground game. Where is the McCain volunteers. Our volunteers have not seen them in any neighborhoods well they must be calling and not canvassing. The Obama campaign has an extraordinary organization. They have broken the region into 11 subgroups, where each have over 30 staging location offices directly tied to their neighborhood precincts. Some of those offices will have 30-50 canvassers and phone bankers but some like ours will have over 150 voluntteers canvassing and phoning and a full volunteer lead staff of a dozen individuals. The impact of this organization cannot be underestimated. Internally polling has demonstrated that 60% of those previously contacted (voters not considered Obama or Democratic Party bases) supported Obama because of the direct volunteer contact. Now that the Obama GOTV is focused on the Democratic Base and previously identified Obama supporters this ratio is expected to exceed 9 to 1.

So here are my current predictions: Obama will exceed 47% in El Paso County and possibly put the county in competitive play meaning that Colorado will go Obama in larger numbers than predicted. The impact that it will have on the Democratic Party ticket will be significant. Mark Udall will benefit and probably win by numbers mirroring Governor Ritter's numbers, while Hal Bidlack might have a genuine chance at a close race victory in CD 5. Bottom line in the Congressional race is that Bidlack with far less money than Fawcett will probably exceed 44% and depending on the depressed turnout in the GOP Faith-Base could move that bar close to 50%.

The biggest upset will be Pete Lee who will secure Senate District 12 with numbers mirroring John Morse's 2006 victory where heavy local GOP and Unaffiliated crossover votes will put two Democratic Senators from once Crimson Red El Paso County. Looking at the map, districts hugging the actual Front Range running from the Air Force Base down to Ft Carson along I-25 will have Democratic representation. The other silent possiblility will be Anna Lord's campaign in House District 21 and Dennis Aupen's bid in House District 17 where both could surprise the once solid Crimson El Paso County.

All this could make for a big party at the Antler's Hilton in downtown Colorado Springs on Election Night. Which by the way Genie Blume is seeking donations so that volunteers and staff who have toiled for over a year can have celebration party. One local victory would often bring about the revelers, but with Mike Merrilfield winning his 4th bid for Representative, and possibly two to four local candidates securing local wins the smiles will be uncontained.

Now don't look for much more contribution to this blog here on out. Vote and vote early. Volunteer and get your neighbors and friends to the polls and understand this is a change election brought on by a movement.