General Election 2008 El Paso County Analysis

Now it is a time to access what happened and how to go forward. Locally the progressive/liberal El Paso County Movement made some serious advances in the base center of the Red Zone. There was a record participation in the caucus in February, with (and I am generally speaking throughout), 9000 raw votes; so unprecedented was 10 times greater than ever before. The Convention had a turnout of over 1600 delegates and that 90% or greater attendance went to the State Convention even with the total breakdown in trying to manage the registration process.

The General Election we saw that 109,000 votes were cast for a Democratic candidate with percentage approaching 40% at the top of the ticket for the second consecutive GE election cycle. Locally the CD candidate got 37% down 2 clicks from Fawcett’s 39%. The Democrats flipped another legislature seat with HD-17’s with a surprising 52% win, (but in reality that district was gerrymandered to be in play). The thing is in the other two hotly contested State Legislature districts in HD-21 and SD-12 Anna Lord only moved marginally from 41% to 42% in consecutive races and Lee got a more competitive but still disappointing 44% polarity.

Okay I have proven the point that the Democratic base is awoken, we unleashed a grass roots effort that canvassed or phone most of El Paso County even is the heart of the GOP base areas. So what why didn’t we win anymore surprising victories?

Let me say it was not the personalities or the campaign activities that brought about these local disappointments; Bidlack, Lee and Lord did more than admirable job. It is our underlying and unifying message that lacked real relevant traction to move a voter base, namely the Unaffiliated (Independent’s, DINO’s and RINO’s) enough to a Democrat instead of staying to the status quo.

That issue is taxes. It is not the issues of personality, corruption, lobbyists, education, healthcare, social justice, jobs, energy, war….et cetera), it is always taxes and the perspective or worldview people acquaint to taxes. I am in the midst of reading David Sirota’s book, “Uprising” which I suggest for all of you to read now in context of this election and how we can turn upside down El Paso County politics and engineer a stronger progressive/liberal base in CO politics. Taxes is the unifying issue that actually binds the Republican coalition of evangelicals, country club, and war mongers together for they hate paying taxes and they loathe money going to those outside their “favored person status”. It is that simple and it is the corporate (big business interests; International, ex-Mtn Region, ex-CO, ex-El Paso County) have taken full advantage of this manipulating the tax base and basically engineering the middle class small business and not them pay while they pay nothing.

David Sirota’s Montana story of this illustrates the point clearly and so does our experience with TABOR (which he referenced) as what is really the issue that cuts through the electorate and the wooden stake to kill the Right-wing Republican anti-tax movement (actually tax redistribution program to their real constituency) in the heart—like the Dracula metaphor. This issue of fair taxes, tax cuts to the middle class, small business is the stake----nationally and locally. It is connected to all the issues you all ran on personally, be it: corruption, lobbying, education, healthcare, social justice, jobs, energy, war…et cetera for until we bring about a fair tax system and cut across the bogus arguments of “class warfare” or “corporate trickle down benefits” nothing will change here or in CO. It is simple subjugation psychology politics. But it has to be clearly defined and conjoined to the individual best interests of the electorate---namely a coalition of Democrats and the Unaffiliated.

My thoughts are that it is waste of time, resources to think any candidate is going to directly assault the Republican base here by the force of personality, rational thought, and secondary issues without directly assaulting them on taxes. The thing is that the numbers tell the story. Right now El Paso County is 44%(165,000) to 32%(120,000) to 23%(85,000).

Now if Obama got 109,000 and McCain got 160,000 let us break this down in the simplest view. First El Paso had a 73% turnout (they are saying 91% of the active voter rolls which is bogus figure for those who were previously inactive who then voted then this GE became active by post election definition), the simplest notion is that there were 374,000 registered voters on Oct 22^nd and 274,000 votes were cast in the GE (73%).

Now let us break this down:

• If 72% Republicans voted that equates to 120,000
• If 85% of Democrats voted that equates to 72,000
• Leaving 81,000 Unaffiliated at a turnout of 67%

I am certain that with (+/-) deviation when we drill into VAN we will find that the Dem’s over 80% and close to 85% and that the GOP will be close to the mean….or slightly above pushing down the Independent vote in relation.

Now if McCain got 160,000 votes and got 90% from his GOP, than 108,000 from Republicans, he then received 48,000 from Unaffiliated and Dem’s. Our internals had it that he was going to get 8% of the Dem vote in our area.---let us move it 10% or 7000 votes, 45,000 votes from somewhere else or the Unaffiliated. This equates to 55% or 45% of Obama’s vote came from the Unaffiliated here in El Paso County.

You are not going to get the local Independent’s without addressing the tax issue on personal basis. Countywide what does this mean? What if the Dem’s got 63% of the local Independent’s (Unaffiliated) or in essence moving 27,000 votes from the Republican column to the Democrat column? 136,000 to 133,000 or (49.81%)

It appears that from the Ritter and Obama campaign the Dem’s have captured about 45% (+/-) the Unaffiliated vote here in El Paso but they have build a bigger coalition that incorporates another 18-20% of Independents to begin winning any countywide contests. West El Paso County it appears that this might have to be somewhat smaller but not precipitously where Lord has received a tick more than Ritter/Obama and Lee a couple more ticks.

Locally I see two issues intertwined in a way to make this change; taxes and election fraud, but taxes trumps it all. Obama (and Montana) has shown the way with his message of middle class tax fairness (relief). This is the modern wedge issue, pitting the electorate (those who actually cast a vote) and the corporate class, which do not but have the resources to lobby the tax laws.

Anna Lord discovered Gardner’s weakness being a lobbyist and an elected official but did not use it. I am certain State Senator Keith King with is past leadership is up to his eyeballs with the same position. They will pit the trickle down theory that corporate tax relief will create jobs but that is bull$#!t and everyone knows that. Jobs are created with a live economy for business hire because they need a workforce to make money, not because they not paying taxes. Not paying taxes means greater dividends for the investor class and bonuses for the corporate execs---which is also part of the investor class with the stock options compensation. This is not about small business either it is about big business.

So this is how simple things are. Grass roots politics will change the numbers only so far. But moving the numbers where progressives/liberals can actually win in El Paso County outside some gerrymandered concentrations like HD17, 18 and SD-11 areas. This is about capturing 63% of Unaffiliated voters. Don’t fool yourself that there is a cache of RINO’s (Republican In Name Only) out there, it might be 10% but is only 16,000 votes and basically those individuals are really Independent-minded voters registered to participate in the primaries. Even if there were 16,000 RINO’s that adds up to just 100,000 registered voters with the current Democratic base and still below the Unaffiliated (120,000) or Republicans (150,000) even if you take away the RINO’s.

Therefore going forward we need to find City Council or future legislature and County candidates who will take this tax fairness issue and get behind it with all our grass roots capabilities and change the landscape from this direction. Remember corporate citizens cannot vote yet.