Do you recall following the 2004 general elections when the "dark executive" Dick Cheney said: "Elections have consequences." Retrospectively he was warning us that this was part of his sweeping justification that he and his team could do whatever the want. Cheney was promoting something altogether new called the "Unitary President" while also saying he was neither part of the executive or legislative branch where he interpreted the Constitution that he was of some "invisible hand" branch of government. Well the 2006 and 2008 elections have also been quite consequential to the level that the Republican National Committee (RNC) is fully admitting that the GOP has grown too addicted to ideology, places politics before policy, and is bereft of ideas.

This is what happens after elections, political parties, movements and even single issue constituencies access and review what worked and what did not. The RNC Chairman went further than merely admitting that his partisans were too addicted to their message ideology (or better described as their marketing brand) that placed political stance above governing policies that were hollow in ways of addressing its citizenry's real problems, he admitted they were plain out of ideas. Their problem is so deep that they are commencing with a new Think Tank called the "Center for Republican Renewal". Now this is a profound development for it emotionally and intellectually denies that the reality that the former self-described party of ideas actually never possessed a new idea, merely an idealogy that any form of government or regulation that did not enrich their true base was bad and should be defiled and discredited. This reaction by the RNC Chairman, a slick platform to get himself re-elected is no different than what the Detroit Automakers did in remarketing and repackaging the same autos and trucks they made since the 1950's.

The reality few political commentators or activists are willing to admit is that actually America has been ruled by an ever concentrating plutocracy---defined as the rule by the wealthy of course. In these post WW II the modern plutocracy is best described as a corporatocracy where in an objective analysis that the Republican ideology never had anything to do with smaller government or marketplace economics for the record simply doesn't indicate these basic tenants in any way. Their real goals were more about increasing the wealth and power of a very small subset of society which they were quite successful over the last 28 years since the Reagan Revolution was exclaimed to begin.

PJ O'Rourke, one of the true believers in the Republican Ideology or better described as a the GOP Mythology stated recently:

An entire generation has been born, grown up, and had families of its own since Ronald Reagan was elected. And where is the world we promised these children of the Conservative Age? Where is this land of freedom and responsibility, knowledge, opportunity, accomplishment, honor, truth, trust, and one boring hour each week spent in itchy clothes at church, synagogue, or mosque? It lies in ruins at our feet, as well it might, since we ourselves kicked the shining city upon a hill into dust and rubble.

So in review of the corporatocracy where they battled over the financial class things like estate tax, the changes in capital gains and dividend income taxation, investment and trade regulations et cetera it was these many "think tanks" whose jobs it was to provide intellectual and message "cover" for nothing other than class warfare. The "theoretical" marketing or political rhetoric justifications like "trickle down economics", "Laffer curves" or "wealthy entrepreneurship" all were introduced into the marketplace of ideas as something real when it was nothing but another snake oil salesman call to an wanting and ignorant audience. But mythology created Greek-like heros like Alan Greenspan who also was caught completely off guard with the recent stock market crash or in the 21st century venacular, "market meldown".

I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organizations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms.

What Greenspan failed to comprehend was that the addiction to unbridled wealth without actual production had warped the entire class of the corporatocracy that there was no accountability or awareness of actual value that the economy served the rest of us like jobs and real income.

So now as the Republican Party, the standard for the corporatocracy is now exposed for what it really is, the mechanism for the wealthy, social bigots, the old Confederacy that was the home of slavetocracy they called the anti-bellum society. Its political voting base are the investor class, the country club set, the corporate and financial executives, those who are its wanna be's, those who vote against their economic class for emotional or social prejudicial reasons---meaning white, often evangelical christian, uneducated, rural, upper class or military and anti democratic. None of the corporatocracy's nostrums was ever been backed up by actual data, just divisive and propaganda. Now it faces a real political dilemma. Its supposed ideology now clearly shown as failing where actual nationalization of the capital markets, the largest industrial market, and realization that deregulation has created a wild west environment to steal other people's money at automated levels. Even the most blind follower of their ideology has come to realize that something is wrong.

Andrew Sullivan the conservative Brit who openly backed Obama made comprehensive conclusion:

The [Republican] crisis is at two levels - the dreadful incompetence and incoherence of the Bush-Cheney administration, which has poisoned the Republican brand for more than one generation, and the emergence of inherent flaws in several strains of conservative thought.

The banking crisis is so close to us and so unresolved it's hard to see it in context, but I fear that Greenspan is right: it's a huge flaw that cannot be explained away by government. The limits of hard power are, in fact, perfectly in line with conservatism's deeper insights into human affairs, with Bush and Cheney acting more as over-reaching utopians than conservative statesmen. And the social conservatism problem has been a function of Christianism: an inability to shape society as it is because their theological doctrine demands adherence to eternal dogma not development of pragmatic policy.

This leaves the Republicans and the corporatocracy with some real problems where they are in a box or rigid high walls. On one side they have hardened their political social base into the mythology of absolute anti-abortion advocacy and institutional homosexual phobia in the name of "old time evangelical religion" fostering a reconstructionist America society and the incompetent economic nationalistic policies propelling the U.S. into a disasterous third-world, two class economy. Both these pathways are political dead ends which is why Colin Powell made this recent observation:

Can we continue to listen to Rush Limbaugh? Is this really the kind of party that we want to be when these kinds of spokespersons seem to appeal to our lesser instincts rather that our better instincts?

So now the Republican powers are left with two choices:

1. Admit that their philosophical basis was simply unadulterated bull shit

OR

2. Blame individuals as an attempt to preserve the "philosophy".

This is why you may have heard the political cries that the Republicans lost because they, meaning McCain, Bush Administration, the Republican Congress and many others forgot their Republican self. It can't be the mythology of the Republican Philosophy but the persons who are now its high priests. One of those high priests, David Brooks wrote:

Now it's just a circular firing squad with everybody attacking each other and no coherent belief system, no leaders. You got half the party waiting for Sarah Palin to come rescue them. The other half waiting for Bobby Jindal, the Louisiana governor, to come rescue them. But no set of beliefs, really a decayed conservative infrastructure. It's just a world of pain.

Obviously the discredited pundits are trying for option 2~~~ what else do they have left, except to admit their worldview is criminal. Finally Rob Dreher from the Weekly Standard came to admit the following:

There is a conservative Establishment -- a political establishment, yes, but also a think-tank establishment and an opinion-leader establishment -- that has become ossified in its thinking and, over time, more interested in policing its heretics than in thinking creatively about conservatism and its application to the challenges facing our nation and our culture at this particular time. That establishment is dying.

So the political philosophy that masked the corporatocracy's actual establishment is dying because the results on the ground are dyer even to them. How will they respond to the continued socio-economic trends; middle class wage stagnation even falling back, generational social immobility, the inevitable rising of health care and education costs which will assault Reagan-Rovolution model of low-tax government supported capitalism? How will they try to sell their old mythological socially-conservative ideas to a moderate middle class that is challenged by the above stratification that rightfully perceives social and economic conservatism as both intolerant and economically ineffective? And finally how do you transform and ever concentrating white party where it benefited from racially-charged issues into a party that can win in an increasingly demographically multiracial America where within the next generation white Americas will be less than 50% of the entire population?

Watching the McCain campaign, you'd barely even know that these problems exist, let alone that conservatives have any idea what to do about them. Conservative commentator Russ Douthat in response to the above dynamic changes in the electorate said:

Watching the McCain campaign, you'd barely even know that these problems exist, let alone that conservatives have any idea what to do about them.

It will be fascinating as the Obama Team deals with the collapsing corporatocracy where it stoled trillions, placed America in a perpetual war over oil and repressed societies and the untended social responsibilies of a middle and lower class in long term stagnation. And through this period a new world order will have to emerge that also addresses the mortal challenges of Global Warming. In this wake we will see the corporatocracy fail and along with it the name of a political party---Republicans though the class will not die but hopefully be made inconsequential the same way the royal class of Europe was made moot following the disasters of World War I.

General Election 2008 El Paso County Analysis

Now it is a time to access what happened and how to go forward. Locally the progressive/liberal El Paso County Movement made some serious advances in the base center of the Red Zone. There was a record participation in the caucus in February, with (and I am generally speaking throughout), 9000 raw votes; so unprecedented was 10 times greater than ever before. The Convention had a turnout of over 1600 delegates and that 90% or greater attendance went to the State Convention even with the total breakdown in trying to manage the registration process.

The General Election we saw that 109,000 votes were cast for a Democratic candidate with percentage approaching 40% at the top of the ticket for the second consecutive GE election cycle. Locally the CD candidate got 37% down 2 clicks from Fawcett’s 39%. The Democrats flipped another legislature seat with HD-17’s with a surprising 52% win, (but in reality that district was gerrymandered to be in play). The thing is in the other two hotly contested State Legislature districts in HD-21 and SD-12 Anna Lord only moved marginally from 41% to 42% in consecutive races and Lee got a more competitive but still disappointing 44% polarity.

Okay I have proven the point that the Democratic base is awoken, we unleashed a grass roots effort that canvassed or phone most of El Paso County even is the heart of the GOP base areas. So what why didn’t we win anymore surprising victories?

Let me say it was not the personalities or the campaign activities that brought about these local disappointments; Bidlack, Lee and Lord did more than admirable job. It is our underlying and unifying message that lacked real relevant traction to move a voter base, namely the Unaffiliated (Independent’s, DINO’s and RINO’s) enough to a Democrat instead of staying to the status quo.

That issue is taxes. It is not the issues of personality, corruption, lobbyists, education, healthcare, social justice, jobs, energy, war….et cetera), it is always taxes and the perspective or worldview people acquaint to taxes. I am in the midst of reading David Sirota’s book, “Uprising” which I suggest for all of you to read now in context of this election and how we can turn upside down El Paso County politics and engineer a stronger progressive/liberal base in CO politics. Taxes is the unifying issue that actually binds the Republican coalition of evangelicals, country club, and war mongers together for they hate paying taxes and they loathe money going to those outside their “favored person status”. It is that simple and it is the corporate (big business interests; International, ex-Mtn Region, ex-CO, ex-El Paso County) have taken full advantage of this manipulating the tax base and basically engineering the middle class small business and not them pay while they pay nothing.

David Sirota’s Montana story of this illustrates the point clearly and so does our experience with TABOR (which he referenced) as what is really the issue that cuts through the electorate and the wooden stake to kill the Right-wing Republican anti-tax movement (actually tax redistribution program to their real constituency) in the heart—like the Dracula metaphor. This issue of fair taxes, tax cuts to the middle class, small business is the stake----nationally and locally. It is connected to all the issues you all ran on personally, be it: corruption, lobbying, education, healthcare, social justice, jobs, energy, war…et cetera for until we bring about a fair tax system and cut across the bogus arguments of “class warfare” or “corporate trickle down benefits” nothing will change here or in CO. It is simple subjugation psychology politics. But it has to be clearly defined and conjoined to the individual best interests of the electorate---namely a coalition of Democrats and the Unaffiliated.

My thoughts are that it is waste of time, resources to think any candidate is going to directly assault the Republican base here by the force of personality, rational thought, and secondary issues without directly assaulting them on taxes. The thing is that the numbers tell the story. Right now El Paso County is 44%(165,000) to 32%(120,000) to 23%(85,000).

Now if Obama got 109,000 and McCain got 160,000 let us break this down in the simplest view. First El Paso had a 73% turnout (they are saying 91% of the active voter rolls which is bogus figure for those who were previously inactive who then voted then this GE became active by post election definition), the simplest notion is that there were 374,000 registered voters on Oct 22^nd and 274,000 votes were cast in the GE (73%).

Now let us break this down:

• If 72% Republicans voted that equates to 120,000
• If 85% of Democrats voted that equates to 72,000
• Leaving 81,000 Unaffiliated at a turnout of 67%

I am certain that with (+/-) deviation when we drill into VAN we will find that the Dem’s over 80% and close to 85% and that the GOP will be close to the mean….or slightly above pushing down the Independent vote in relation.

Now if McCain got 160,000 votes and got 90% from his GOP, than 108,000 from Republicans, he then received 48,000 from Unaffiliated and Dem’s. Our internals had it that he was going to get 8% of the Dem vote in our area.---let us move it 10% or 7000 votes, 45,000 votes from somewhere else or the Unaffiliated. This equates to 55% or 45% of Obama’s vote came from the Unaffiliated here in El Paso County.

You are not going to get the local Independent’s without addressing the tax issue on personal basis. Countywide what does this mean? What if the Dem’s got 63% of the local Independent’s (Unaffiliated) or in essence moving 27,000 votes from the Republican column to the Democrat column? 136,000 to 133,000 or (49.81%)

It appears that from the Ritter and Obama campaign the Dem’s have captured about 45% (+/-) the Unaffiliated vote here in El Paso but they have build a bigger coalition that incorporates another 18-20% of Independents to begin winning any countywide contests. West El Paso County it appears that this might have to be somewhat smaller but not precipitously where Lord has received a tick more than Ritter/Obama and Lee a couple more ticks.

Locally I see two issues intertwined in a way to make this change; taxes and election fraud, but taxes trumps it all. Obama (and Montana) has shown the way with his message of middle class tax fairness (relief). This is the modern wedge issue, pitting the electorate (those who actually cast a vote) and the corporate class, which do not but have the resources to lobby the tax laws.

Anna Lord discovered Gardner’s weakness being a lobbyist and an elected official but did not use it. I am certain State Senator Keith King with is past leadership is up to his eyeballs with the same position. They will pit the trickle down theory that corporate tax relief will create jobs but that is bull$#!t and everyone knows that. Jobs are created with a live economy for business hire because they need a workforce to make money, not because they not paying taxes. Not paying taxes means greater dividends for the investor class and bonuses for the corporate execs---which is also part of the investor class with the stock options compensation. This is not about small business either it is about big business.

So this is how simple things are. Grass roots politics will change the numbers only so far. But moving the numbers where progressives/liberals can actually win in El Paso County outside some gerrymandered concentrations like HD17, 18 and SD-11 areas. This is about capturing 63% of Unaffiliated voters. Don’t fool yourself that there is a cache of RINO’s (Republican In Name Only) out there, it might be 10% but is only 16,000 votes and basically those individuals are really Independent-minded voters registered to participate in the primaries. Even if there were 16,000 RINO’s that adds up to just 100,000 registered voters with the current Democratic base and still below the Unaffiliated (120,000) or Republicans (150,000) even if you take away the RINO’s.

Therefore going forward we need to find City Council or future legislature and County candidates who will take this tax fairness issue and get behind it with all our grass roots capabilities and change the landscape from this direction. Remember corporate citizens cannot vote yet.

1st Post Election Obama Volunteer Group Meeting a BIG SUCCESS!

Last night at the Pikes Peak Main Library, Penrose in downtown Colorado Springs, Colorado in the Carnegie Reading Room about 76 persons attended what appears to be the first official local post election Obama Organization Meeting in the U.S. I was told this about an hour before its start by Martha Moore, political correspondent for the USA Today Newspaper when she interviewed me on background for an upcoming article. Whether that is so or not we do know that in Colorado El Paso County Obama political activists are the first to organize no different than last year on August 6th precisely the same number of people showed up from a call by Mike Maday to form the orginal local campaign political organization. It was the first organization that Gabe Cohen, the then just appointed Colorado Field Director met with and from there we participated in nominating and now electing Barack Obama to the Presidency.

Here is an accounting of the meeting. First in attendance we had about a dozen of the Staging Location Directors from the GOTV efforts in the Obama Campaign. We also had as many Obama Team Coordinators, seven of the original Caucus/Convention Obama Volunteers leaders, (Mike Maday, Gary Gabrielson, Don Nelson, Jason DeGroot, Andy Nelson, Carol Duster, Renee Hartslief and myself), three former local candidates, (Jay Fawcett, Hal Bidlack and Pete Lee), the publisher of the Colorado Independent, John Weiss, (reporting on the event was Ralph Routon the editor of the Independent), local political consultants, Sally Davis, Jane Ard-Smith and (Renee), El Paso County Democratic Party Vice-Chair, Jay Ferguson, recognized super Obama canvasser Jon Wuerth, two former local Obama staffers, Robert Andrews and Dave Frum just to name a few I recognized. I will also say that I received at least twenty other emails of persons who had personal schedule conflicts and wanted to attend but were unable.

The primary outcome of the meeting was that we voted unanimously to formerly organize a group that would be a separate grass roots organization to be a political resource for the Obama Presidency in El Paso County and seek to partner or link with both the local Democratic Party and other issue groups or constinuencies that align with the Obama Platforms and Movement. The other outcome was that we appointed eight individuals to an Ad hoc Organizational Development Committee to meet and formulate an organizational plan and framework and report back to the group. Those individuals are: Robert Andrews, Pat Hansen, Rick Ketcham, Pete Lee, Katherine Mack, Mike Maday, Don Nelson, Chris Orsborne, and myself.

I opened the meeting and wanted to highlight the political accomplishments the Obama Campaign and its grass roots volunteers to date:

• Record Caucus turnout and Obama vote 69%
• General Election Results: McCain 155,000 <6,000> Obama 104,000 +27,000 over 2004
  
• Voter Registration #'s 16,000 new Democrats, 12,400 Unaffiliated's, 12,000 Republicans
• FiveThirtyEight.com's analysis: 51% CO poll voters contacted by an Obama volunteer while 34% were contacted by a McCain volunteer, 17% gap resulted 3.4-5.1% increase in Obama vote.

Then I introduced Don Nelson who read a passionate speech about the connection between Clinton's failed progressive movement in Health Care Reform and the lack of a grass roots organization to counter the lobbyists in Congress and why a separate grass roots group was essential for the Obama Presidency.

Mike Maday got up and discussed his brief communication with Jon Carson the recent National Field Director of the Obama campaign and the mentioning that a new person would be in contact with him regarding their thoughts. He then introduced Kathy Spicer wh is now with an Ad Hoc Committee investigating polling place and MIB irrregularities in El Paso County. This ilicited many comments from the group about apparent voter problems.

Jay Ferguson then got up and presented the case that moving much of the IObama activism and spirit of change and growth into the El Paso County Democratic Party is critical. He passed out about 25 invitations to next Saturday's Meeting at Hillside Community Center to be led by John Morris, the Party Chair.

I then moved the meeting to an open discussion as to what were their ideas of what to do an what the organization should be, whom or what it serves. We had many ideas expressed, all formitable. There was some concensus that confirmed our theme and objective. That we should form as a separate but aligned group. Our purpose was to serve the President's Platform Agenda of Change and develop or maintain the capability of grass roots communication and organization. That maintaining the team and house district framework was desirable. One extraordinary idea was to make certain whatever local issue we focus on it should be a winner so that we develop credibility and genuine power to change things. Also we agreed to merge the contact networks we have from the HD teams into a large communication network. That we want to spread this grass roots movement to other counties in Colorado and send representatives to them and coordinate efforts.

We then nominated a good sample of leaders who will meet and try to put in order the ideas and spirit for the next meeting. In the meantime everyone at the meeting was to reach out to their network and inform and invite them to the next meeting. If I missed something please write me and I will publish it.

My final take: After the meeting a few of us met at the Phantom Canyon Brewry to discuss some things. Both Jay Ferguson and I have been involved in a spirited and capable grass roots organization that once the contest was over attempted to maintain itself to varying success and degree. In Jay's case it was Mike Miles Senatorial Nomination run where a group in Douglas and Jefferson Counties a strong grass roots group formed outside the local Democratic Party as a 501C educational group. Ultimately they developed such powerful leadership that many found their way into the local county parties, took over and now have been electing local candidates in once Republican only areas.

In my case I was part of coalition of almost 80 groups fighting the building of a coal-fired electric power plant by a private utility in Wisconsin. Our coalition had big corporate players and small environmental and health activists. When the corrupted approval process ended our grass roots effort turned to trying to create a publicly owned utility district in our city, (like Colorado Springs Utilities). Without some early successes the post organization died a slow death.

Organizing something like this is not easy. But the benefits could be enormous. On one hand it offers a vehicle for a voice by those who feel they don't have a voice or their voice will not be heard is important. Many of the Obama network were Independents, either registered or in spirit and not inclined to enbroil themselves in party politics. Others are members of issues or groups outside the party framework but aligned with the Obama Platform. And as Don elequently pointed out that having an outside but affliated group (not unlike the DFA or Move On, offers the ability to communicate to elected officials in mass but outside the party, something both Clinton and Carter presidencies lacked. On the other hand it allows those who become activists the ability to join in the party enmasse with other Obama minded activists to reform and grow our local party. It is a place where party recruitment and development can take place on the outside. This is not a threat to the local party except to say that new blood and knowledge of how to actually organize will cause change to the old guard.

But it will take work and commitment. The other item of most importance is what a wise person brought forward, an early win and credibility. In my opinion the most obvious item to explore is the vote fraud, suppression and manipulation that is apparent in El Paso County. The witness by Jay Ferguson on the local Elections Board illustrates greatly what most of the public does not know, Balink is wholly untrustworthy. That previous to his administration El Paso had the state's lowest amount of election incidents and six years in his administration now the highest amount of incidents. This by itself is an outcome that springs a red flag of suspicion. Is it incompetence, lack of resources or outright corruption?

The thing is that there are 120,000 Independents registered in El Paso County who would be more inclined to align and partner with the Democrats if it is shown and worked that their vote is as much in jeopardy for manipulation as the 86,00o registered Democrats. This makes the inherent numbers of 206,000 to 165,000 (registered Republicans), to provide fair and clean elections. This even could cut into the Republican base as a win-win-win and something of a winning issue that could also bring about a coalition with other issue groups. Ultimately it leads to the 2010 County Clerk's election where Balink is term limited and it being an open seat.

All told the meeting was a great success and I will be announcing both the ad hoc committee meeting and next meeting shortly.

What the impact of Obama's Volunteer Ground Game quantified!

Many of you became politico's for the first time. The role of volunteer to a political campaign comes in many flavors, helping out in the field offices, donating food or hosting house parties, but the most important is making direct contact with voters who are strangers. Unlike TV or radio commercials or speaking events, contact with strangers offers persuasion impact on far more levels emotionally and intellectually than a virtual impact of a media message that can be countered buy the opposition's media message. When one campaign overwhelms the ground with volunteers the opposition cannot counter in kind and the imprint can be extraordinary.

FiveThirtyEight.com has done some enlightening post election analysis attempting quantifying the effect of Obama's volunteer ground game where in exit polls in battleground states they asked the question: "whether the voter had been contacted by the Obama and McCain campaigns personally about getting out to vote?"

The Obama campaign had a superior contact rate in 11 of the 12 battlegrounds; the only exception was West Virginia. Wisconsin was also relatively close, perhaps because Obama redirected its legion number of Illinois-based volunteers from Wisconsin to Indiana a couple of weeks in advance of the election.

The largest gaps, however, were in Indiana and out west in Colorado and Nevada, all places where Obama outperformed his polls on election day.

% of Voters Reporting Direct Contact from Campaigns

State  Obama   McCain   Gap

CO     51%     34%      17%
NV     50%     29%      21%
IN     37%     22%      15%
VA     50%     38%      12%
PA     50%     39%      11%
IA     41%     30%      11%
FL     29%     20%       9%
NC     34%     26%       8%
MO     44%     37%       7%
OH     43%     36%       7%
WI     42%     39%       3%
WV     29%     31%      -2%

They continued the analysis by saying:
Roughly speaking, each marginal 10-point advantage in contact
rate translated into a marginal 3-point gain in the popular vote
in that state. So the rule of thumb that a "good" ground game may be worth
additional 2-3 points above and beyond what is reflected in the
polls appears to hold; a great ground game may be worth somewhat
more than that.
The implications are profound going forward especially with the
coalition of voters who in the past were less inclined to vote
where a strong volunteer base ground game will be essential to
prevail inupcoming elections. Outside of this those of you who
took part in this historical election take heart you were the
difference when it came to votes. Obama won in Colorado 53.5% to
45% and going into the final weekend the polls indicated in Real
Clear Politics average that the spread was 5.0% but the final
results were 8.5%. Take a look at the final polls the weekend
prior to the election:

• Fox/Rasmussen had it Obama +4% (51%-47%)
• Denver Post/Mason Dixon had it Obama +5% (49%-44%)
• Marist had it Obama +6% (51%-45%)
  
• ARG had it closer with Obama +7% (52%-45%)

The week previous

• PPP was a little strong at Obama +10% (54%-44%)
• Politico/Adv was dead on a week previous +8% (53%-45%)
• CNN/TIME also was dead on +8% (53%-45%)
  

Even more striking is that two of the four final polling had McCain's vote percentage dead on, ARG was a point below while the hopeful Fox/Rasmussen gave McCain two points while sliding Obama by 2.5% points. None of them had Obama performing above 53% except when you go back a week prior to the election.

Back to the ratio FiveThirtyEight ratio states that for every 10% advantage equates to 2-3% increase in vote over the polling or in case of Colorado, seventeen percent contact gap translated in a 3.4 to 5.1% increase in the vote over the polling. Taking the RCP average of 5.0% and adding 3.4% equates to 8.4%. Local knowledge of Colorado being a traditional Republican/convervative leaning electorate where Colorado College professors have held an inherent 2% advantage for any Republican candidate this all falls in the deviation of 3.4 to 5.1%.

Where to go from here

It has been six days since Election Day and we have all had some time to think and reflect on its implications. Senator Barack Obama's amazing Presidential victory is potentially one of the four transformative elections in our nation's history, naturally only time and historians will determine that. My discusions with Political Scientists almost all conclude that Obama could be as important as Jefferson's, Lincoln's and Franklin Roosevelt's Administration in fundamentally changing America.

Many of you participated quite actively in some manner in this election cycle far outside of the comfort zone of being a casual spectatorand possibly voting. Of all the post election news pieces may I suggest you watch CBS's 60 Minutes episode produced just a few hours after Obama's victory speech in Grant Park, Chicago in the wee-early morning hours of November 5th. There Steve Kroft interviewed the four senior campaign leaders in a disarming revealing manner. CBS reported:

...They did it by recruiting and vesting millions of volunteers in the outcome, by raising more money than any campaign in history, and by largely ignoring that their candidate happed to be a black man....

The only person missing from the brain trust was the candidate himself. How big a role did he play in this campaign?

"Well, no one had a bigger role, you know. The great thing about our campaign was we didn't have a lotta discussion about what our message was or what he wanted to do," Plouffe said. "From the beginning, he knew exactly what he wanted to say. And it's one of the reasons we were successful. A lotta campaigns will spend hours every day wondering about how to change their message. And he was pretty clear about what he wanted to say, where he wanted to take the country, and either people would accept it or they wouldn't."

Axelrod recalled, "When we started the campaign, we met around a table like this. And there was just a handful of us. You know, we started with nothing. And Barack said to us, 'I want this to be a grassroots campaign. I wanna reinvigorate our democracy. First of all I think that’s the only way we can win and secondly I want to rekindle some idealism that together we can get things done in this country,"

Now where do we( in El Paso County) go from here? Well the mission seems obvious, to carry with the reinvigorating our democracy, right here in Colorado Springs!

Unlike any campaign beforehand Obama's left a grass roots organization ready to go its structure and framework to work off of. There were 26 Staging Location Directors who personally managed the county's GOTV Volunteer Field Offices. It was those organizations that recruited, trained and even deployed those thousands of volunteers on the ground. Within those organizations there are experienced canvass team captains, phone bank directors and volunteer coordinators not to mention comfort teams who directed many hundreds of volunteers in grass roots campaign activities. This cannot simply peculate down into the soil and simply disapear. So those of you who remain motivated and committed we can make changes in Colorado Springs for we have a network. But for this to work you must get involved.

First, I have called a general organizational meeting for November 18th at 7:00 PM at the Main Library, (Penrose) in downtown Colorado Springs, (25 N. Cascade) in the Carnegie Reading Room to discuss and attempt to begin formulating a consensus about how to proceed from this point. I have developed a draft agenda which I will include below. (If you think it needs amending please email me.)

Now this is not meant as a competing agenda with John Morris's (the El Paso Democratic County Chair), and his open forum scheduled for the following Saturday, November 22nd at the Hillside Center (10 AM), that said I am not being presumptive.

The local Obama network which emerged here was primarily accomplished from persons outside the El Paso County Democratic Party framework, where many volunteers and supporters were Independents and Republicans, even though the majority of its activists are Democratic. Going back even to the Caucus days, most of the Obama Precinct Captains and supporters were not regular party Democratic members, although a number of us like, Mike Maday, Kathy McQuinllan or myself were.

So there are two big questions we need to address next Tuesday evening.

1. Do we remain an identifiable and separate group outside the local Democratic Party?
2. If yes, under what kind of structure and purpose?
   

From that point I think things will emerge as we forge a vision. If we become a separate group or constituency, than individuals can and should be encouraged to join into the El Paso Democratic Party leadership and basically follow Obama's call to reinvigorate our local democracy with their idealism and willingness to work together in getting new things done. Other members who aren't compeled to join the Party should be encouraged to join other progressive grass roots groups where they too can reinvigorate those organizations. Creating a local Obama constituency can bring about real change even here in Colorado Springs.

Nate Hundt, the Obama Field Director wrote to me after the election:

Bob:

My advice would be to keep the teams in place....

Privately I have been told that the Obama network I received a link from the head of the Group Administrators, Chris Hughes regarding the future of MyBO:

Over the past 21 months, millions of individuals have used My.BarackObama to organize their local communities on behalf of Barack Obama. The scale and size of this community and its work is unprecedented. Individuals in all 50 states have created more than 35,000 local organizing groups, hosted over 200,000 events, and made millions upon millions of calls to neighbors about this campaign. There can be no question that these local, grassroots organizations played a critical role in Tuesday's victory.

What has made My.BarackObama unique hasn't been the technology itself, but the people who used the online tools to coordinate offline action. My.BarackObama has always been focused on using online tools to make real-world connections between people who are hungry to change our politics in this country.

And the site isn't going anywhere. The online tools in My.BarackObama will live on. Barack Obama supporters will continue to use the tools to collaborate and interact. Our victory on Tuesday night has opened the door to change, but it's up to all of us to seize this opportunity to bring it about.

In the coming days and weeks, there will be a great deal more information about where this community will head. For the moment, let's celebrate this victory and know that the community we've built together is just the beginning.

Privately, I have been told by persons in the campaign that they are looking for the Obama Network to be a political asset for major policy initiatives going forward. They have over 10 million email addresses but more importantly they a person-to-person network that if maintained even as a skeleton of its once final campaign self would allow Obama to go around the media and press and reach directly to his political base when needed.

Draft agenda for Tuesday November 18th for a post election Obama Organizational Meeting.

A) Do we continue to stay organized?

1) Under a separate framework and/or identifiable group(s)?

a) Do we keep the current HD/Team framework as suggested by Nate
b) Do we form a different framework or structure?
c) do we disband?

2) If we stay together do we fold into the El Paso County Dem Party?

a) as a separate constituency(s) or group(s)?
b) or integrated individually not as a group?

B) What would be its purpose and vision?

1) As a group or constituency what purpose will we serve?

a) Locally?
b) Statewide
c) Obama Presidency?

2) As a group or constituency what is our vision

a) Change means what locally?
b) Change means what politically
c) Change means what in the Democratic Party?

C) What are the political opportunities and timing?

1) El Paso County Democratic Party

a) Precinct Co-chair vacancies and inactive posts
b) Party leadership; executive council
c) Committee structure

2) Statewide Democratic Party

a) Committee's
b) Party Executive Council
c) Candidate organizations:

• Salazar reelection 2010
• Ritter reelection 2010
• Kennedy reelection 2010
• Attorney General 2010
  

3) Local Candidates

a) City Council races, 4 spots open in April 2009
b) County Commissioner County and City Volunteer Boards
c) County Clerk, Treasurer, Coroner, Sheriff (2010)
d) HD 18, 2018 plus HD 15, 16, 19, 20, 21, Senate 9 (2010)
e) Congressional Candidate 2010

4) Activism and/or NGO's

Party on....a summary of the last week!

I still cannot ably describe my feelings from Tuesday night. My wife cried on my shoulder while hugging me as Obama gave his victory speech. Beforehand the 9 PM declaration where the election was about to be "called" by all the major networks, I told my son soon that Obama election as the 44th President of the U.S., that this was bigger than the "Man on the Moon". He replied that Michael Beschloss, the famed and esteemed presidential scholar had just made a similar comment on TV. Naturally we had not heard that through the din of the growing celebration at the Antler Hilton as Beschloss also was looking at this election in the same light as the big four: 1800 (Thomas Jefferson), 1860 (Abraham Lincoln), 1932 (Franklin Roosevelt) and 1980 (Ronald Reagan). Actually I think Reagan's election is more comparable to 1832 (Andrew Jackson) which was change in the period but not one that fundamentally changed America. Only time will tell if Obama is up to the task as Jefferson, Lincoln and Roosevelt.

Looking back, Thomas Jefferson politically changed America by expanding Democracy outside the Federalist concentrations in New York and Boston into rural America. Plus his Administration commenced the peaceful transfer of power never before seen in World History from one political power group to another. And finally he expanded by double the geography of the U.S. with the purchase of the Louisana Territory. Lincoln of course saved the Union during the Civil War, freed the slaves and began Reconstruction. FDR changed America by saving it from Fascism and Communism while bringing about american socialism, won WW II which placed America as an unmatched International world super power. Reagan's impact is more like Jackson's, big but not fundamental. I guess the order of magnitude is whether one's effigy is on our currency, I don't see any Reagan coins or images on any dollar bills. But there is the penny, the nickel, the dime and of course the quarter, plus of course the Kennedy half dollar. Jackson does have the twenty dollar bill, Lincoln again the $5.00 bill, (I know there was an atttempt to put Reagan on the $10.00 bill and replace Hamilton but that died a quiet death---funny thing that Iran-Contra item.)

Back to Tuesday night. I was invited to join over a thousand El Paso County Democratic Party members, supporters, revelers, party goers and basically the band wagon in experiencing Senator Barack Obama's Presidential Election victory at Colorado Springs Antler's Hilton Hotel Grand Ballroom. How does one properly express the hundreds of hugs and handshakes from many a fellow volunteer, activist, Democratic Party member or merely Independent/Republican supporter, many of which came up to me personally to congratulate me and other Obama volunteer leaders "on Obama's campaign victory? But then again, even Obama acknowledged this was not his victory but "the people's" victory----does that sound too socialistic? Well maybe to a conservative who has no conscience (meaning closet Fascist), or elitist Republican-Reptile who silently thinks America has nobles and peasants.

Those I saw and hugged were Jason DeGroot, Mike Maday, Lynn Young, Barb & Vinai Thummapolly, Renee Hartslief, Kathy McQuillan, Andy Nelson, Jay Ferguson and Cheryse Exline among many others including the Obama staff local candidates.

First, let me begin to discuss some revelations or items relating to political trends in El Paso County and the State of Colorado that have been learned from this election cycle and the final phase of the Obama campaign.

• First there is a now a strident, albeit still minority progressive movement in Colorado Springs that is a real local political force.
  

• On one hand it will take a lot more effort and continued demographic/political changes for this not to be still an almost futile political effort.
  
• But the Republican conservatives (actually the reactionary retrogressive right wing movement) is in a full retreat in Colorado, which in many ways because what is happening here in Colorado Springs.
  
• 2008 is the second election cycle in a row that the headliner garnished more than 39.6% followed closely by the other Federal candidates, this year Udall and Hal Bidlack who scored above 38%.
• That all said there is some strange numbers that don't make sense.
  

A casual observer might think that is still an overwhelming victory for the Republicans, (and it is) but not like years past when Republicans dropped 66% or almost 70% for their statewide candidates from El Paso County. Now remember Boulder and Denver Counties gave 74% and 75% to the Obama this year, where also Udall scored 73%, in both those counties. It used to be that El Paso and Denver Counties balanced each other out, but now that El Paso is contributing less than 60% to the cause the tipping point is going Democratic.

That is the 40,000 foot view so what is the detail? Over the final weekend the Obama campaign put well over 1000 volunteers on the ground throughout area. One local positive effect of all this effort can be seen in Dennis Apuan's surprising victory in House District 17 where he won a 380 vote victory. El Paso County, the home of the politically active Focus on the Family, birthplace of the Libertarian Movement and considered by most the 16th most conservative district in the U.S. now has three Democratic State Legislators; Merrifield HD-18, Apuan HD-17 and State Senator John Morse SD-11. Not reported is the fact that Ft. Carson's precinct in the base voted Obama by two votes. Think about that.

All this cannot be ignore or scoffed off. I only have personal inside knowledge of House District 21, (basically areas in Western Colorado Springs/El Paso County, without Old Colorado City and Manitou Springs), basically described as neighborhoods known as Mountain Shadows, Garden of the Gods, Mesa Hills, The Broadmoor, Skyway and outside of Fort Carson/Mt Cheyenne. This region is described as mostly white, college educated, professional middle class to affluent-investor class demographics with some areas of even above affluence middle class like Broadmoor, Kissing Camels and Cedar Heights. Our neighborhod team area of primary focus was the northern half of House District 21, we called it HD 21 Staging Location Teams 1&3. Led by Mike Maday, the former El Paso County Volunteer Coordinator for the Obama campaign for the caucus and county delegation chairman we put together what others described as one of the best neighborhood teams in the county. Similar descriptions were made about the team working exclusively in the southend of House District 21, known as Team Queso (team 2) where they worked the Skyway and Broadmoor neighborhoods.

To understand House District 21 one needs to have knowledge of the registered political landscape. 49% of the electorate is registered Republican, 29% are registered Independents and only 22% are registered Democrats. Now this is not a uniform distribution by precinct where my precinct (PCT 147) which borders HD-18 and an elected Democratic State Legislator (the border being one street to my south), has 27.75% Democrats, 35% Independents and 37.25% Republicans. Going north from our four boarding precincts the distribution goes deceivingly more Republican. Naturally this was a gerrymandered district for Keith King who was once one of the Republican House Leaders in 2000, now elected as a State Senator in a curious race with Pete Lee, (more on that on a later post). Our Team originally was assigned 10 precincts, called Pleasant Valley, Mesa Hills and Holland Park, quickly grew to 13 involving the south Rockrimmon areas and then eventually merging with the Mountain Shadows and Ute Pass groups to a coverage of 21 precincts.

As autumn turned into October the campaign went into the phase known as Get Out The Vote (GOTV). Our HD teams now fully organized began to rapidly increase recruiting volunteers to make the final pushes in phone banking and canvassing seeking out voters. Ultimately our target universe was roughly 12,000 voters, roughly one-third of the total 36,000 electorate of HD-21 and primarily all Democrats and most Unaffiliated (Independents) voters and some targeted Republicans who previously were identified as supporters of Obama. This contact universe would carry through to the final four days to Tuesday, November 4th, election day. Because of the month long MIB voting, two week long early poll voting and Tuesday voting GOTV strategies are rapidly evolving. MIB status voter now make up 39% of the entire electorate Of that number 43% are now registered Democrats up from 20% this year, while 32% are Independents with 42% are Republicans.

Now here is an interesting tidbit coming out of the cumulative result, Anna Lord; the Democratic candidate for State Legislator who received 57.7% of her votes from MIB cast before election day all told from early voting got 72.8% of her entire vote when you include early poll voting. Her 12,411 votes represents over 4487 votes over the entire Democratic registration or more than one-third of her vote came from Independents and Republican crossovers. Detail by precinct will not be available until November 22nd so we are just extrapolating but Anna Lord did receive 42% of the vote two percent above Obama's El Paso wide vote. Though something is strange that her vote only increased by one-half percent.

What is self evident is the turnout by MIB and Early Vote versus Tuesday day of the election voting. In El Paso County there were 374,399 registered voters but only 265,828 cast votes (71%). Comparably speaking in 2004, 68.60% voted (242,888 out of 354, 059) and in 2000, 59.40% voted (201,662 cast out of 339,445) so turnout was higher and continues to grow.

MIB's represented 137, 766 out of the 265, 828 cast or 51.8% of the entire vote! Merge that with early voters and it represents 65.76% of the entire vote cast did so before Tuesday. Meaning only 89,284 voted on election day Tuesday---which meant there were no long lines a sfeared where also only 44.5% of the remaining electorate came out to vote. Comparing to 2004, 61,303 voted MIB (25.23%) and 37,012 voted early totaling 38.58% voting before Tuesday November 2nd. Thus the trend is that MIB participation has doubled and therefore almost doubling the early turnout but it appears that still a significant number are not voting.

The implications are enormous for a campaign strategy here in Colorado Springs and Colorado in general. Decisions and votes cast are made far earlier than the final weekend as many assume and therefore, like this year where final weekend theyGOTV activity is feverish and en are fighting for an ever smaller pool of remaining voters, many of which are not still not participating. With more MIB participation however the overall turnout continues to grow from numbers in the 70's, 80's and '90's. Thus going forward I am predicting that GOTV efforts will begin far earlier in earnest, even as long as a month or more beforehand while parallel campaign persuasion and identification activities will continue on more targeted basis until the final week of the election cycle.

Now information from the front lines, ground game insights and weird stories. At our staging location, which essentially functioned as a satellite 5-day campaign office for the northend of House District 21's, and its twenty-one precincts where we had over 150 volunteers identified for direct campaign contact activities and poll watching. Over 80 persons signed up to make phone calls in what turned out to be 10 3-hour full time shifts over Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. The canvass team had about 60 or so volunteers signed up for 11 shifts, plus we had about ten poll watchers, runners. Then there were the coordinating leaders; Mike Maday, John Atkinson, Julie Feuerback & Carol Duster as comfort captains and of course myself, as the Phone Bank Director. Our objectives were to contact up to 6,000 or more targeted voters who were identified as MIB voters who had not voted as of yet or Tuesday poll voters.

We reached an estimated 1253 persons by phone in a targeted universe of 3000, many more than once. The canvass team made great number of contacts as well over the weekend, but on weekdays the contacts went down greatly. Also we left message or left door hangers on all doors and messages on all working phones non contacted phones. The impact was mixed of course with Tuesday's turnout being 44.5% city wide. It is my estimation the biggest impact was chasing down the remaining MIB voters who had a surprising large number of problems.

On Saturday we found 13 persons whom we talked to (out of about 320 that day) who had requested a MIB and not receive one. One was Christine who was physically disabled and the other was Larry where he and his wife lived in Canada and where his wife had received hers and he not. Both were profiled on KOAA TV Sunday night and Monday morning. The following day, Sunday we found another 15 or so who had similar problems with MIB delivery, followed by about ten more on Monday bringing us to over 50 by the end of Tuesday's last phone canvass. This was roughly 50 out of 500 those who had MIB outstanding in the 21 precincts we covered or 10% of that universe.

We found many of these persons like Larry unable to make amends since the only remedy would be for individuals to go personally to the Clerk's office on Monday or Tuesday and get a replacement ballot. One person we talked to was in London, another at Columbia University. Many others were closer to Colorado Springs like Greeley or Fort Collins but still unable to make it down here in time!

The other problem we found was the erroneous database item of MIB requested (but not mailed) MIB's by the County Clerk's office. Again we started finding this problem on Saturday where we found another 50 or so by Tuesday who had this designation in the database, all coincidentally with a date of request of 9/27/2008. Confirming their status with the Secretary of State's online databaseoffice we found that they were registered to vote at their Tuesday polling place. This caused communication confusion to say the least, but also begged the next question: Why were they designated as MIB requested, and why all on that date?

Then we began discover another layer of suspicious data entry errors in our contact universe. Voter's purged recently where many had their birth dates strangely recorded as 01/01/YEAR. We started to find these persons from the final contact universe that we were working on Tuesday as they were voters out there that had not voted by Noon and identified as Obama supporters. In our database each had volunteered for the campaign as a canvasser or phone banker at one time or another, and high ranking supporter. These particular persons all had registered this year and yet they were removed from the voters roles in the last couple of weeks. Well naturally if their birth date didn't line up with a federal database that would make them suspect. But in our contacting we found the following situation:

One young voter had registered in May and had requested a MIB where it was mailed to her on October 22nd. She told her father that she had mailed it back in but in checking the Secretary of State's database it had not been received as of the final weekend. When we looked into the database we found that the Clerk's office had 01/01/YEAR as her birth date and of course that was erroneous. How did her birth date change? Well that is the data entry responsibility of the Clerk's office. But the strange thing is that her purging had to have happened between October 22nd and October 31st when the Secretary of State was ordered by the Federal Judge to stop. There was nothing she could do for we were talking to her father on Tuesday November 4th---because her MIB was still not in.

This is why there is a 90-day stay for any systemic purging of voter records for mistakes or manipulation by those in control of the databases cannot be corrected in time and advantage those in power of the lists. This is why there is a famous saying; "it is not how many votes it is how many votes are counted".

Of course this is not just the strange things that went on in El Paso County. Over the weekend in what was a contested local area that Dennis Apuan won, phone calls were made to Democratic and Obama campaign poll watchers from a mysterious telephoner saying they were not needed and not to show up to a meeting getting their credentials on Monday. Naturally this was erroneous and the campaigns had to scramble to recontact those but to some it was too late. How did anyone get those lists? All poll watchers are deputized and credentialed through their party or campaign and then submitted to the County Clerk's office who has the record. Naturally the lists came from either inside the campaigns or from the Clerk's office.

But that was not enough. Jason DeGroot told me briefly that the Security Widefield office was also subject to fire alarm calls and inspection officers for code violations among other disruptions like the electricity being shut off. This all in the final days! There is another report that I am tracking down that poll watchers came to another staging location but were then identified as Republican operatives where they quickly left as Democratic volunteers showed up. This of course on top of the lies sent via email, stated on TV and even news shows.

Now some conclusion a few days after the 4-day sprint to the finish line. Things have changed on the ground in El Paso County and in Colorado. Colorado now has a Democratic Governor, Lt Governor, Treasurer and soon to be Secretary of State for Coffman was elected as the other Republican Congressman from Colorado taking over Tancredo's seat in JeffCo. The Governor now gets to appoint a replacement and it is rumored to be former Secretary of State Candidate Gordan. At least for 2010 the shenanigans the Republicans have employed purging the voter databases will be curtailed.

But think about it in three election cycles Colorado has gone from a Republican Governor, two Republican US Senators and four of the seven Congresspersons, where now both US Senator's are Democratic, 5 out of seven are Democratic and only the Attorney General is Republican in the State Executive Branch. Both legislative houses are now Democratic majority and finally Colorado swung blue in voting for Obama. In this wake, Lynn Musgrave the anti abortionist was soundly defeated in what was a McCain leaning area of the state, and an openly Gay candidate Polis won handily in Boulder's based Congressional District-2.

In El Paso County the Democratic vote is now roughly 40% up from 32-33% in 2004 and 31% in 2000 and 35% in 1996. In Colorado Springs we have unearthed over 1000 active volunteers and probably created over 50 progressive activists. We have also begun to get a picture on Balink's voting corruption. Furthermore this puts a premium on getting more than 43% in MIB to where we need to move that number up to almost two-thirds. With that and early voting trends we then would have almost 90% in the house before election Tuesday. The final weekend we have to rethink the strategies for a 45% turnout on this kind of high turnout election cycle is not working. Anna Lord in HD-21 (it had a 81.2% turnout), and thus needed a 94% turnout where she would have had to get all the additional 4600 votes.

Overall though I think we need to make certain we keep HD-18 and HD-17 and State Senate D-11 in 2010 and then more fairly reapportion the boundaries in El Paso County. This might help in getting more representative reflection in the state legislative districts. That the Democratic Party is now on the hot seat for its elected officials must not do what the Rove oriented Republicans did over the last decade. It must prove itself to be practical and fair and earn the Independent vote each day.

For us in Colorado Springs we have to take the energy and knowledge and begin working on the El Paso County Democratic Party (AKA Peak Dems) as a viable and rich minority political movement. The Obama campaign activists and participates must organize and integrate into the party and both reform it, reformulate it and infuse it with capability, energy and purpose. Thus I am beginning the call to have a post election meeting before John Morris's meeting at the end of the month. In this I am looking to do what the Obama campaign taught us---organize a grass roots group---the one thing is we have formualate a consensus and vision and then take that to the regular Democratic Meeting. Since Mike Maday and I are on the Precinct Development Committee we can start by nominating certain individuals for open Precinct Co-Chair seats before the Febuary Organization Meeting that will elect officers for the next four years in the organization. This will include not only the Executive Officers of Chair, Vice-chair, 2nd Vice Chair, Secretary and Treasurer, but also Senate District Chairs and House District Chairs which all are on the Executive Committee. Also Committee Chairs will be chosen.

To move this grass roots movement forward progressively people will have to stay involved. Personally I am thinking we have to evaluate Precinct Co-Chairs as to whether they are there in name only. In active co-chairs need to be removed and active chairs installed. Decentralizing and organizing like the campaign did is also a must where each Senate and House District should be organizing while the Executive Committee should be strategic and not tactical. This way we can continue to turn and identify progressives in the neighborhoods and also continue to move more voters to MIB status.

We have a lot to do. Our community governments are broke. They are becoming dysfunctional and like McCain out of touch and out of reality. Many Republicans I have talked to blame the Democratic Party for allowing the right wing wingnuts to have taken over, those like Keith King, Bob Gardner and Doug Bruce. That negative high water mark was Christen in the District 11 School Board which prompted our recall effort, but those nuts are still here.

If you are interested email me. Party on....

One week to go where most Americans will vote their future. In Colorado out of an estimated 4 Million voters who are besieged with the knowledge that our State is in play and could be a "decider", up to 1.6 Million votes are estimated to be cast before Tuesday morning. That is 40% of the vote and a dynamic that most of the media/press does not really have what it could mean. Well in one obvious thought is with each passing day a late October Surprise will have a corresponding lessening potential impact on the outcome. Another thought is that traditional voter manipulation and corruption tactics are reduced where causing long lines due to nefarious partisan efforts like running out of ballots or not having enough resources in targeted precincts have less impact.

Mail In Ballots are the new rage, where in El Paso County an estimated 150,000 or more will be distributed, (145,000 by October 21st). The Democratic Party increased their requests by 100% moving up to almost 43% of their base. The Republican Party increased their request from 38% to 42% county wide, while Unaffiliated's moved up to 30% from the low 20's. El Paso County now has 380,000 registered voters where the GOP hold 43% (down almost 2 percentage points), while Unaffiliated's 31.5% of the registered electorate and the Democratic Party possessing 22.5%. Subtly the Democrats used to be below 2-1 ratio with the GOP but now they are just above the 2-1 ratio.

Furthermore it is estimated that 30,000 to 35,000 Early Voters will try to make their will known with suspect electronic voting machines. Princeton U did a case study where they showed how to break into the machines, change the memory cards and close up in less than 7 minutes where they could pre-determine the vote even fooling the print outs. If anyone asks today is the last day to request a MIB and receive a paper ballot in early voting. Just a thought. Overall what this means is over 180,000 in El Paso County will have voted before November 1st when the campaigns go on a 96-hour marathon effort in what is known as GOTV. Meaning 200,000 potential votes are available on Tuesday, 53% which the turnout is far less than MIB results that are estimated to be over 90% turnout.

If a total 80% turnout is expected or 304,000 votes in total, than it is estimated 134,000 of the remaining 200,000 votes will be cast on Tuesday. El Paso County has said they have 170,000 available paper ballots for Tuesday. So if 100% turned than again 30,000 would be forced to use those suspect machines. But let us go back to reality. 134,000 voters means lines will be long and longer. This will be interesting and I think if any of you went to the caucuses, county conventions or even the State Conventions you will experience similar chaos, frustration and fatique.

Now the ground game. Where is the McCain volunteers. Our volunteers have not seen them in any neighborhoods well they must be calling and not canvassing. The Obama campaign has an extraordinary organization. They have broken the region into 11 subgroups, where each have over 30 staging location offices directly tied to their neighborhood precincts. Some of those offices will have 30-50 canvassers and phone bankers but some like ours will have over 150 voluntteers canvassing and phoning and a full volunteer lead staff of a dozen individuals. The impact of this organization cannot be underestimated. Internally polling has demonstrated that 60% of those previously contacted (voters not considered Obama or Democratic Party bases) supported Obama because of the direct volunteer contact. Now that the Obama GOTV is focused on the Democratic Base and previously identified Obama supporters this ratio is expected to exceed 9 to 1.

So here are my current predictions: Obama will exceed 47% in El Paso County and possibly put the county in competitive play meaning that Colorado will go Obama in larger numbers than predicted. The impact that it will have on the Democratic Party ticket will be significant. Mark Udall will benefit and probably win by numbers mirroring Governor Ritter's numbers, while Hal Bidlack might have a genuine chance at a close race victory in CD 5. Bottom line in the Congressional race is that Bidlack with far less money than Fawcett will probably exceed 44% and depending on the depressed turnout in the GOP Faith-Base could move that bar close to 50%.

The biggest upset will be Pete Lee who will secure Senate District 12 with numbers mirroring John Morse's 2006 victory where heavy local GOP and Unaffiliated crossover votes will put two Democratic Senators from once Crimson Red El Paso County. Looking at the map, districts hugging the actual Front Range running from the Air Force Base down to Ft Carson along I-25 will have Democratic representation. The other silent possiblility will be Anna Lord's campaign in House District 21 and Dennis Aupen's bid in House District 17 where both could surprise the once solid Crimson El Paso County.

All this could make for a big party at the Antler's Hilton in downtown Colorado Springs on Election Night. Which by the way Genie Blume is seeking donations so that volunteers and staff who have toiled for over a year can have celebration party. One local victory would often bring about the revelers, but with Mike Merrilfield winning his 4th bid for Representative, and possibly two to four local candidates securing local wins the smiles will be uncontained.

Now don't look for much more contribution to this blog here on out. Vote and vote early. Volunteer and get your neighbors and friends to the polls and understand this is a change election brought on by a movement.

Neighborhood team member in the news, McCain reportedly conceding Colorado and the final push

Yesterday I was told that canvass superstar, Jon Wuerth one of TEAM 3 in House District 21 in Colorado Springs was profiled in a Washington Post video report. Jon was once the recipient of a volunteer award to meet with Obama by knocking on over 300 doors in a weekend. I have come to know Jon as a member of our volunteer team and he has been instrumental in moving Colorado Springs towards Obama one knock and one voter registration at a time. When you watch the report notice Jon running from door to door.

Today, on CNN, John King their chief political reporter broke with the news that the McCain campaign is down to its final [fatal] strategy to win the electoral college by conceding Colorado along with New Mexico and Iowa. These are three states that Bush won in 2004 with his narrow re-election win. But conceding Colorado. Ironically this is directly in conflict with Washington Post's Dan Balz's report on Face the Nation Sunday when he stated that the Obama campaign has a multiple 3-2-1 strategy win the Electoral College. What is interesting is that this comes on the heals of McCain has vacating Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin both considered battleground states which have fallen recently to the Obama camp. Now McCain is vacating New Mexico, Iowa and COLORADO!

King's report states that McCain's final two weeks will concentrate on the following six states; Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Virginia and also foregoing any idea of a popular vote win. (This is a Helm's Deep mentality). Contrast this with the Obama 3-2-1 strategy where they hold the following: (1) Win one-state of either Florida and/or Ohio and they win. (2) Win two states of Virginia and either New Mexico or Iowa and they win. (3) Win three states of New Mexico, Iowa and Colorado and they win.

Here is McCain's head wind to turn this around:

• Ohio---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 2.8
• Pennsylvania---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 11.0
• Florida----Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 2.0
• Virginia---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 8.0
• North Carolina---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 2.3
• Nevada---Real Clear Politics composite: Obama up 4.2
  

Hmmmm....looks like an Inside Straight or a Royal Flush...like in flushing the Republican's down the toilet Tom......

But...but McCain is now conceding the the three states...what is their vision....sweeping the six above that includes Pennsylvania? For this to happen the McCain campaign will have to employ the full measure of the race card and Reverand Wright believing that Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Nevada and Pennsylvania will buy it. The final scorched earth politics is at hand. Be prepared, and it will not work either....

Finally the Colorado Springs ground game. We are now fully focused on GOTV (Get Out To Vote) activities involving direct contact to Mail In Ballot (MIB) voters, assembling Early Vote efforts and finally the the push to get Obama voters to the polls on Election Day. The final weekend we will assemble and deploy literally a couple thousand volunteers into El Paso County knocking on doors and phoning the remaining voters. It will be an experience of a lifetime and may I invite everyone, those who have volunteered alread and those who have not to get involved. Please call the Obama campaign office 719-328-1517 or email me.

Colorado Springs embarrassingly full of Voter Registration Quirks & Mistakes

Yesterday the Colorado Springs Independent published an article outlining some of the strange things appearing daily. Ironically my lovely wife Sue was one of the profiled examples to these happenings.

Others are coming to share similar fears as questions build about errors, misinformation and appearances of partisanship coming out of County Clerk Bob Balink's office.

Sue Nemanich requested a mail-in ballot in August. When it arrived in early October, her last name was spelled with an extra "a" at the end. Bob Nemanich, Sue's husband and an active local Democrat, started making calls to figure out what to do. He says he received repeated assurances she would have no problem casting the ballot with the misspelling — until Liz Olson, the county election manager, told him the ballot was "spoiled," and that a new one would be sent.

The new ballot arrived with "DEM" showing through the envelope. Nemanich says his initial fears about contradictory and misleading information were gradually overtaken by amazement.

"Anybody who sees this can see this is a Democratic Party ballot," he says. "It invites easy manipulation."

Pat Waak, the Colorado Democratic Party Chair, says Tuesday afternoon she's "very troubled" by reports she'd heard from El Paso and Weld counties of mail-in ballots with party affiliation on address labels.

"It concerns me that it might lead to selecting out certain ballots," Waak says.

Later in the afternoon, Balink and Olson explain that a voter's party affiliation only shows up on replacement mail-in ballots. The labels are generated automatically, Olson explains, by the state's voter registration database. Balink rejects the suggestion that the markings on mail-in ballots represent a "glitch."

Now think about it. It is believed that up to 1.2M to 1.5M Mail In Ballots will be distributed in Colorado this election and how many will end up spoiled? One percent to possibly five percent, that is 12,000-15,000 up to 60,000 to 75,000 not having a secret ballot. That in of itself could effect the election if those ballots suddenly don't end up being counted because someone assumed which way a voter cast their ballot because of party affiliation.

On the heals of this is the Independent's publisher, John Weiss who has convened another of his appeasing Town Hall Meetings.

Dear Clerk Balink:
Thank you for agreeing to participate and/or to have your associate Liz Olson participate in this important town hall meeting that will take place on Monday, October 27 from 2-3:30 PM at the Penrose Library in downtown Colorado Springs. The focus of this gathering will be to provide local citizens with a forum to air their concerns – and hopefully have their questions answered...

...El Paso County Commission Chair Dennis Hisey, Colorado Springs City Councilor Jan Martin and State Senator John Morse have all agreed to help promote this Town Hall as well as participate in this meeting, if their schedules permit...The Independent, The Gazette and KRCC-FM have agreed to help promote and co-sponsor this event. In addition, three non-partisan civic organizations have agreed to help co-sponsor and help promote this event: Common Cause of the Pikes Peak Region, League of Woman Voters of the Pikes Peak Region and Citizens Project. We also anticipate that a local station will televise this session.

Speaking of Senator John Morris, he held a (link to live video) press conference in Colorado Springs

The El Paso County Clerk and Recorder is under scrutiny again. The Democratic Party claims Bob Balink isn't being fair with the election process.

This all started about a month ago when allegations surfaced that Colorado College students were given the wrong voter registration requirements. Clerk and Recorder Balink has since apologized for giving the students the wrong information.

But now, the Democrats said they question his competency to run a fair and clean election. This, Democrats said, after glitches continue to come out of Balink’s office.

The most recent incident happened over the weekend when voter registration information on a completed absentee ballot request form was apparently faxed from the clerk's office to several media outlets including KKTV. The voter’s personal information was on the form, including his social security number, birth date and address.

"When asked why this got faxed, he (Balink) said, he had no clue. I suggest we get a county clerk who has a clue. Regardless of the mistake, who was he faxing this to anyway?" questioned State Senator John Morse.

Balink wasn't available for an on-camera interview, but he told 11 News he didn't know how the information got out.

"He's working on a strategy to suppress votes. He’s not working to make sure everyone gets to vote," said Sen. Morse.

So here is the bottom line. If you have received a Mail In Ballot in Colorado, carefully review all the information regarding your ID. If there is one iota of a mistake, you must get a replacement. When you do, please do not mail it, it will show your party affiliation but hand deliver it back to the County Clerk's Office. Report all irregularities to the press and the Obama campaign.

How effective is a ground game?

Campaigns can spend oodles of cash on advertising where it gets much attention from media insiders but as time goes on psychologically most people tune out the bull sh$t. This morning my literal, attentive son was absolutely inattentive as I asked if one of the few McCain ads on the morning cable talk show lineup whether the McCain ad was negative? He said, "Dad I haven't paid attention to any ads for at the last couple of weeks, except Bidlack's because it has so many people from our church in them." In fact whenever the program we watch is on we scramble for the remote whenever a friggin TV commercial comes on and either depress the mute button or flash to another channel to avoid any and all commercials during this time.

So the waste of money spent must be enormous. That said I was told an interesting statistic regarding the ground game effect this weekend. The Obama campaign in Colorado holds that every voter they have contacted has expressed support for Obama at a 59% clip. Now this is not a small sample where the campaign has fanned out to make personal contact not with regular voting Democrats or even moderately regular voting Democrats but targeted sporadic voting Democrats, all unaffiliated voters (Independents) and specific targeted Republicans. This is neither a small universe nor an easy one which by all accounts is traditionally a Republican/conservative leaning voting universe in Colorado.

Therefore the political science claim that a traditional effective ground game political organization---meaning phone bank volunteers, walking canvass volunteers and voter registration volunteers, usually moves the voting bar 3-5%. But in this case it appears to be exceeding the high mark of 5% when you begin to figure in the persuasion universe contact rate of 59% support. This is not an easy task but the Obama campaign not only has done it well, it has done where they identified almost a thousand volunteer leads in just 20 precincts in Colorado Springs. These are individuals who expressed an initial willingness to volunteer from a contact with another Obama volunteer, either on the phone, at the door or attending an event like a house party. Now most contacts even though they might express support for Obama, they do not express a willingness to volunteer.

This is why yesterday I published the high probability the vote in El Paso County is far closer than anyone has imagined. This huge swing of Independent voters, touched the army of Obama volunteer, plus lazy voting Dems and cross over Republicans are piling up while the motivation and turnout in the McCain camp is atrophying. Thus this is why I think the ground game here Colorado will move the bar from 5% to 9% depending on locale.

In many ways what we have found is a reverse motion on enthusiasm for volunteer support in neighborhoods. Traditional Democratic leaning areas like Old Colorado City, Manitou Springs, Fountain, Security, Hillside and Nob Hill neighborhoods have had inconsistent or sporadic volunteer attendance and activities. While in contested areas like Colorado Springs upper and lower west sides, Old North Ends, Central City and even some East Side Neighborhoods volunteerism is robust and consistent. In areas considered almost uniform Republican like Briargate, Black Forest, Broodmoor, and even Monument has seen highly motivated small teams providing a huge impact where previous presence was never seen.

Now the ground game is migrating away from persuasion activities to early GOTV activities chasing Mail In ballot recipients and still moving registered voters to MIB status. At the same time they are organizing and preparing their entire volunteer force to take on the Election Day where they intend to contact every targeted voter that weekend and motivate and facilitate them to vote. It is not glamorous, nor is it reported on the Cable News channels but it is more effective than another crummy television commercial.

Today's early prediction for El Paso County

Essentially the campaign in El Paso County began back in late March 2007 when a few idealistic and disgruntled middle class persons congregated in the Obama social network created for such a purpose. Here I met Barbara, Vinai, Andy, Kathy, Lynn, Terry, Jason, Renee among many others who led this effort. What is appearing is something beyond our collective imaginations.

Hold your hats, hitch up your belt and sit down for what I am going to tell you is amazing. If the election were held today I think Obama will be within a couple of percentage points of carrying this RedZone of RedZones, we know as El Paso County, home of Focus on the Family and the New Life Church. The place where Doug Bruce resides, the birthplace of the Libertarian Party and all that is reactionary right-wing. If the election were held I think the numbers would reflect that McCain would squeek by with a 50.5% to Obama 47.3% (Barr and others would get the rest). Last last week I thumbnailed a prediction of 44-47% but then when I drilled baby drilled into the data and found variances with new voter and previous voter statistics the percentage actually increased.


How am I coming to this conclusion? Well let us start to break this down.

• Republicans registered 165,500 (12,000 new)
• Independents registered 120,850 (12,400 new)
• Democrats registered 84,800 (16,200 new)

Some assumptions in this year's election: New (Republican and Independent) registrants vote at higher percentages (80%) and Democrat new registrations are voting at 95% for Obama and Independent new registrants at 80% rate for Obama. (Source FiveThirtyEight.com---taken from primary data).

Republicans are locally less motivated to due to local events (New Life Church scandal where it now is non political no phone banks), Focus on the Family (lay offs and McCain), Lamborn campaign unfunded and the continuing Wall Street Market Crash. Historical numbers hold that they voted at 73% in '04 and will probably vote at 63% (local GOP statement). New registrants will vote at 80% levels. Bleed in the ranks where Libertarian Party will get 5-7% of total vote because of protest vote within pool voting.

Independents, new registrants will follow FiveThirtyEight model and vote at 80% due to two factors locally, MIB registration effort and Obama factor. They are projected to vote 80/20 Obama to McCain see FiveThirtyEight.com. Existing or previous Independent voter will have a 70% (some depressed of about 5% due to long lines at the end of the day) countered by Obama ground game of idenifying Obama supporter and leaners getting them higher MIB levels. Existing voters will be split 47% 47% (McCain Obama) with remaining going to Libertarian (5%)

Democrats, new registrants will vote at 85% levels because of MIB effort and Obama effect and vote at 95% for Obama. Existing Democrats will vote at 80% turnout and 90% for Obama.

Projected McCain vote = 125,000 (+/-)
New Voters(R): 7680 (+) New Voters(I) 2200 (+) New Voters(D) 1000 = 11,000
Prev voters(R) 77,300 (+) Prev Voters(I) 32,100 (+) Prev Voter(D) 4350 = 113,750

Projected Obama vote = 117,700 (+/-)
New Voters(R) 1440 (+) New Voters(I) 7950 (+) New Voters(D) 12,300 = 21,700
Prev Voters(R) 14,500 (+) Prev Voters(I) 32,000 Prev Voters (D) 49,500= 96,000

Libertarian Party and other votes amass 6000 votes (+/-)
All told El Paso County has a turnout of 67% (some of it because of long lines at the end of the day).

This has huge implications for the down ticket going forward with the top of the ticket bringing in record numbers. In 2004 Salazar polled 81,000 votes. In 2006 Ritter polled 69,000 votes but got 39.7%, an increase of 5% from Salazar, where then Ritter won by a 5% larger margin than what Salazar defeated Coors. This is now being called the El Paso factor. If Obama carries 45% or more in El Paso County it could imply that he might win by a landslide of 58-59% statewide. All this correlates with the science of the ground game where political observers note a strong volunteer organization moves the bar 5-7% points from the old standard. This would fall into that line of reasoning.

There are still three weeks left and with the Stock Market tanking further day-by-day and McCain's campaign imploding due to a rudderless strategy and narrative could Obama actually close up 6 or 7000 more votes? Well two things would have to happen.

• One, the turnout for Republicans falls even more than 63% for previous voters. This could happen if the volunteer core in the GOP are lax in getting them MIB's and they find themselves having to wait in a line for two to four hours to vote for candidates that are likely going to lose. That would not please Lamborn, but again the RNC has given him no money!
• Two, the financial markets go into a total nose dive with more economic news depressing the electorate even more.

That could move the turnout to about 60% in the previous voting Republican Party base and dampen a bit the new voters where McCain's total falls to below 120,000 with Obama's inching up towards 120,000. Stranger things have happened, but in all cases this is extraordinary projections!